Odds Overview
Lech are slight favourites: Lech to win is priced at 2.13, compared with 2.80 for FC Thun to win, while the draw is 4.15. In the main total, Over 2.5 at 1.58 looks significantly more likely than Under 2.5 at 2.30. The visitors also have the edge on the Draw No Bet market: Lech Draw No Bet is 1.65, FC Thun Draw No Bet is 2.15.
Why Lech Are Favourites for the Match
Bookmakers consider Lech favourites for the upcoming meeting: the visitors are priced at 2.13 to win, while FC Thun are offered at 2.80.
The first game showed the Polish club's total superiority — the 7:0 win was a European record for Lech.
The hosts have had a full week to prepare for the second leg after their league match against Servette was postponed, but overturning a seven-goal deficit will be extremely difficult.
Form and Line-up FC Thun
In the league and in Europe, the Swiss club are going through a difficult spell: the team lost 2:4 to Basel, then were beaten 2:3 away by Vikingur. After conceding three goals in the first match against Lech, head coach Gian-Luca Privitelli took responsibility for the decision to play with a high defensive line.
Key numbers:
In 9 of FC Thun's last 10 matches in all competitions, their opponents scored at least one goal.
Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of FC Thun's last 10 home matches in all competitions.
In 9 of FC Thun's last 10 home matches in all competitions, their opponents took no more than 5 corners.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Niklas Steffen — Fabio Fehr — Jan Bamert — Marco Burki — Michael Heule — Nils Reichmuth — Justin Roth — Nassim Zoukit — Valmir Matoshi — Marc Gutbub — Brighton Labeau.
Form and Line-up Lech
The Poznan club have been impressively prolific in all competitions: in August the team thrashed Piast 3:0 and also dealt comfortably with Klaksvik away from home — 5:0.
Key numbers:
In 8 of Lech's last 10 matches in all competitions, they scored at least one goal.
In 9 of Lech's last 10 Europa League matches, they took no more than 5 corners.
In 9 of Lech's last 10 Europa League matches, they received no more than 2 yellow cards.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Mateusz Lis — Joel Pereira — Wojciech Monka — Mateusz Skrzypczak — Michal Gurgul — Radoslaw Murawski — Antoni Kozubal — Pablo Rodriguez — Patrik Walemark — Allahyar Sayyadmanesh — Luis Palma.
Mikael Ishak will miss the match through injury, while Joao Moutinho has not trained with the main group. Leo Bengtsson and Filip Jagiello are returning from injuries, but their readiness to play against FC Thun has not been officially confirmed.
Teams' Chances
Lech to win — 2.13; margin-free estimate — 2.27 and 44%. FC Thun to win is offered at 2.80, with a margin-free estimate of 2.99 and 33.5%, while the draw is 4.15, 4.43 and 22.6% respectively.
Outcome | Average odds | Average odds without margin | Probability without margin |
FC Thun to win | 2.80 | 2.99 | 33.5% |
Draw | 4.15 | 4.43 | 22.6% |
Lech Poznan to win | 2.13 | 2.27 | 44.0% |
Total Goals Betting Tip
On the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 at 1.58 is preferable to Under 2.5 at 2.30. At 3.5, the picture is reversed: Under 3.5 is 1.55, Over 3.5 is 2.30.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.30 | 1.58 |
3.5 | 1.55 | 2.30 |
Handicap Betting Tip
Big handicaps are priced high: FC Thun (-1.5) — 4.60, Lech (-1.5) — 3.70; FC Thun (+1.5) — 1.20, Lech (+1.5) — 1.14. On the -1 line, FC Thun (-1) is offered at 4.00 and Lech (-1) at 3.00; on the +1 line, FC Thun (+1) is 1.30 and Lech (+1) is 1.19. On the Draw No Bet market, Lech at 1.65 are shorter than FC Thun at 2.15.
Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
4.60 | -1.5 | 3.70 |
1.20 | 1.5 | 1.14 |
4.00 | -1 | 3.00 |
1.30 | 1 | 1.19 |
2.15 | 0 | 1.65 |
Both Teams To Score Betting Tip
Both teams to score — Yes is priced at 1.52 and looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.45; the second option means at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.52 |
No | 2.45 |
Double Chance Betting Tip
The lowest odds are on 12 — 1.20. X2 is offered at 1.40, while 1X is 1.67.
1X | 12 | X2 |
67/100
|
1/5
|
2/5
|
Team Total Betting Tip
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: FC Thun — 1.5 goals, Lech — 1.5 goals.
FC Thun Team Total
FC Thun: Over 0.5 is 1.25 against Under 0.5 at 3.65; Over 1 is 1.45 against Under 1 at 2.55. At the 1.5 mark, Under 1.5 is shorter at 1.62, while Over 1.5 is 2.15; on the 2 line, Under 2 is 1.25 and Over 2 is 3.55.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.65 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
2.55 | 1 | 1.45 |
1.62 | 1.5 | 2.15 |
1.25 | 2 | 3.55 |
Lech Team Total
Lech Poznan: Over 0.5 is 1.15 against Under 0.5 at 4.60, Over 1 is 1.27 against Under 1 at 3.35. On the 1.5 line, the prices are almost level: Over 1.5 is 1.83, Under 1.5 is 1.87. For the 2 mark, Under 2 is offered at 1.37 and Over 2 at 2.85.
Under | Team total | Over |
4.60 | 0.5 | 1.15 |
3.35 | 1 | 1.27 |
1.87 | 1.5 | 1.83 |
1.37 | 2 | 2.85 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Halil Umut Meler (Turkey)
Matches — 7 (international matches, 2025-2026);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 5.2;
Matches with red cards — 0 of 7;
Matches with penalties — 3 of 7.
