Finland vs Belarus: prediction & betting odds 29 September 2026

Odds overview

Finland are favourites: a Finland win is available at around 1.75, a draw at 3.50 and a Belarus win at 5.10. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.55 is considerably shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.45. Finland (0) at 1.28 has much shorter odds than Belarus (0) at 3.35.

Why Finland are favourites

Bookmakers favour the hosts: Finland are offered at 1.75 to win, compared with 5.10 for Belarus and 3.50 for a draw.

• Belarus have lost or drawn 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches, falling short of their opponents in quality and results.

• The visitors struggle to create chances and have had no more shot attempts than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 matches in the competition.

Form and Line-up Finland

Finland's first halves tend to be low-key: no more than three goals have been scored before half-time in each of their last 10 matches across all competitions.

• Finland took fewer than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
• Finland committed fewer than 11.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
• There were fewer than 5.5 yellow cards in 9 of Finland's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.

Probable Finland line-up (4-3-3): Viljami Sinisalo, Topi Keskinen, Ville Koski, Samuli Miettinen, Juho Lähteenmäki, Kaan Kairinen, Adam Markhiev, Leo Walta, Adrian Svanbäck, Joel Pohjanpalo, Benjamin Källman

Form and Line-up Belarus

Belarus aim to slow the tempo as much as possible and defend tightly away from home: in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches, their opponents had fewer than five shots on target, while Belarus themselves were limited to no more than 13 shot attempts.

• There were more than 24.5 fouls in 9 of Belarus's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
• There were more than 2.5 offsides in 8 of Belarus's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
• The teams received more than 3.5 yellow cards in 9 of Belarus's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.

Probable Belarus line-up (4-2-3-1): Fedor Lapoukhov, Kirill Pechenin, Igor Tikhomirov, Zakhar Volkov, Vladislav Kalinin, Aleksandr Selyava, Max Ebong, Yegor Malashevich, Valery Gromyko, Artyom Kontsevoy, German Barkovskiy

The teams' chances

Finland to win at 1.75 corresponds to fair odds of 1.84 and a probability of 54.3%; the draw at 3.50 corresponds to 3.69 and 27.1%; and Belarus to win at 5.10 corresponds to 5.37 and 18.6%. The hosts remain clear favourites.

Total goals prediction

At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.55 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.45. The odds are close at the 2-goal line: Under 2 goals is 1.91 and Over 2 goals is 1.83. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.15 is considerably shorter than Over 3.5 goals at 4.40.

Handicap prediction

Finland (-1.5) at 3.40 has longer odds than Belarus (+1.5) at 1.27. Similarly, Finland (-1) at 2.60 is longer than Belarus (+1) at 1.50. For the zero handicap, Finland (0) is available at 1.28 and Belarus (0) at 3.35.

Both teams to score prediction

Both teams to score — No at 1.60 is considered more likely than Both teams to score — Yes at 2.25: at least one team is expected not to score.

Double chance forecast

Bookmaker	1X	12	X2
Bet365	1/10	11/50	163/100
William Hill	3/20	29/100	23/20
888sport	11/100	11/50	3/2

Odds are current as of the material publication date

Team total goals prediction

Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Finland — 1.5 goals, Belarus — 0.5 goals.

Finland team total goals

Finland team total: Under 0.5 goals at 3.80 has much longer odds than Over 0.5 goals at 1.22; at the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is 2.55 and Over 1 goal is 1.48. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals is 1.65 and Over 1.5 goals is 2.17; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals at 1.25 is considerably shorter than Over 2 goals at 3.55.

Belarus team total goals

Belarus team total: at the 0.5-goal line, the odds are close — Under 0.5 goals is 1.92 and Over 0.5 goals is 1.82. Under 1 goal at 1.30 is considerably shorter than Over 1 goal at 3.30, while Under 1.5 goals at 1.14 is shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 4.70.

Who Will Referee the Match

Nikola Dabanović (Montenegro)

Matches — 13 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);

Average fouls per match — 25;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4;

Matches with a red card — 2 of 13;

Matches with a penalty — 1 of 13.