Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Brann are favourites at around 1.75, while a Kauno Zalgiris win and a draw are offered at 4.20 and 4.00. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.10. For the handicap (0) market, Brann at 1.35 have much shorter odds than Kauno Zalgiris at 3.00.
Why Brann are favourites
A Brann win is offered at 1.75, while Kauno Zalgiris are quoted at 4.20 and a draw at 4.00.
• Brann made the better start in Europe: the Norwegian side opened the league phase with a 2:1 win over Lincoln Red Imps and share ninth place in the table.
• Kauno Zalgiris suffered a heavy 0:4 defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion in their opening match and currently sit bottom of the UEFA Conference League.
Form and Line-up Kauno Zalgiris
The Lithuanian club are performing confidently in the domestic league, having beaten Sūduva 1:0 and FA Šiauliai 2:0 in recent rounds. Kauno Zalgiris lead the table by four points. However, Lithuania's Toplyga is well below the standard of European competition. Their recent 0:4 thrashing by Brighton & Hove Albion in England on the opening matchday of the UEFA Conference League league phase illustrates the gap. The Lithuanian champions can compete on equal terms only with clubs from the Faroe Islands.
- Under 3.5 goals has landed in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- Kauno Zalgiris have scored under 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- Kauno Zalgiris have scored under 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (5-4-1): Tomas Švedkauskas, Joris Moutachy, Anton Tolordava, Aldayr Hernández, Nosa Iyobosa Edokpolor, Franco Baldassarra, Fabien Ourega, Amine Benchaib, Yukiyoshi Karashima, Leo Ribeiro, Renan Oliveira
Form and Line-up Brann
The Norwegian side have struggled domestically, losing 1:3 to Vålerenga and 0:2 to Viking in their October Eliteserien matches. They even had to come from behind against Gibraltar's Lincoln Red Imps in the opening round of the UEFA Conference League, eventually winning 2:1. Centre-back Neraysho Kasanwirjo was sent off in the 23rd minute for an overly aggressive challenge, leaving the Dutchman unavailable for the upcoming match. Niklas Castro rescued Brann's start to the league phase with two second-half goals.
- Under 3.5 goals has landed in 7 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Brann have scored under 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Brann have taken over 4.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-2-1): Simen Vidtun Nilsen, Leo Cornic, Thore Pedersen, Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen, Joachim Soltvedt, Christian Eriksen, Jacob Lungi Sørensen, Eggert Aron Guðmundsson, Niklas Jensen Wassberg, Sævar Atli Magnússon, Niklas Castro
Unavailable: Neraysho Kasanwirjo (suspended), Ulrik Mathisen and Kjartan Kjartansson (injured)
Teams' chances
The margin-free assessment gives Brann a 53.9% chance of an away win: their average odds are 1.75 and their fair odds are 1.85. A Kauno Zalgiris home win has a 22.5% chance, with average odds of 4.20 and fair odds of 4.45; a draw has a 23.6% chance, with corresponding odds of 4.00 and 4.24.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kauno Zalgiris to win | 4.20 | 4.45 | 22.5% |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.24 | 23.6% |
| Brann to win | 1.75 | 1.85 | 53.9% |
Total goals analysis
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 at 1.75 has shorter odds than Under 2.5 at 2.10. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is the favourite at 1.42, compared with 2.65 for Over 3.5.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.10 | 1.75 |
| 3.5 | 1.42 | 2.65 |
Handicap analysis
Brann (-1.5) at 2.75 have much shorter odds than Kauno Zalgiris (-1.5) at 7.70. At the 1.5 handicap line, Brann (1.5) are shorter at 1.05 than Kauno Zalgiris (1.5) at 1.40; at the 1-goal line, Brann (1) are 1.06 compared with 1.63 for Kauno Zalgiris (1). For the handicap (0) market, Brann at 1.35 are favoured over Kauno Zalgiris at 3.00.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 7.70 | -1.5 | 2.75 |
| 1.40 | 1.5 | 1.05 |
| 6.70 | -1 | 2.25 |
| 1.63 | 1 | 1.06 |
| 3.00 | 0 | 1.35 |
Both teams to score analysis
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.70 has shorter odds than Both teams to score — No at 2.10, meaning the market considers goals from both sides more likely than at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 |
| No | 2.10 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
21/20
|
1/4
|
9/50
|
| William Hill |
19/20
|
1/4
|
11/50
|
| 888sport |
19/20
|
1/4
|
11/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals analysis
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Kauno Zalgiris — 1 goal; Brann — 1.5 goals.
Kauno Zalgiris team goals
For Kauno Zalgiris team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.45 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 2.60; at the 1-goal line, Under 1 at 1.73 is shorter than Over 1 at 2.05. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 at 1.32 is favoured over Over 1.5 at 3.10.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 | 0.5 | 1.45 |
| 1.73 | 1 | 2.05 |
| 1.32 | 1.5 | 3.10 |
Brann team goals
For Brann team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.12 has much shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 5.10, while Over 1 at 1.25 is shorter than Under 1 at 3.60. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 at 1.80 is slightly shorter than Under 1.5 at 1.95; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.52 is shorter than Over 2 at 2.45.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.10 | 0.5 | 1.12 |
| 3.60 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.95 | 1.5 | 1.80 |
| 1.52 | 2 | 2.45 |
