Betting Tip
The Lithuanian and Kazakh teams begin their UEFA Conference League qualifying campaigns in the second qualifying round. The hosts approach the start of their European campaign in a ragged state, having endured a poor few weeks in the league. The visitors, by contrast, have found their game and look far more organised ahead of the first meeting at the Aukstaitija Stadium.
Panevezys have won just one of their last five Topliga matches, losing three times and drawing once. The club's main problem is a wide-open defence: 11 goals conceded over that stretch and regular lapses from the opening minutes. Under high intensity, the red-and-blues lose their positional structure and start making foolish mistakes near their own goal. The golden 2023 season is now long in the past, and in the 2024/25 European campaign the team lost three of their four home matches. Two of them were heavy defeats.
Tobol Kostanay spent a long time floundering near the bottom of the Kazakhstan Premier League, but seven points from 12 over the past four weeks have taken the team from Kostanay back into mid-table. The return from Heart of Midlothian of last season's top scorer Islam Chesnokov has helped. He has not scored yet, but he has constantly drawn attention to himself. The yellow-and-greens are excellent going forward, but they still need to work on their defending in training because they have conceded in each of their five recent matches.
The difference in current form favours the visitors, so the Kostanay side have to come away with at least a draw. The bet is not on an outright win because the goals conceded even against teams from the lower reaches of the KPL are a concern.