Match bet
Sabah looked rock-solid in the opening rounds of Champions League qualifying. Dambrauskas' side swept aside The New Saints (4:1 on aggregate) and Finnish side KuPS (3:0), showing an excellent balance between defence and attack. Everything went wrong in Randers a week ago: their opponents scored twice by the 63rd minute despite not creating many scoring chances. Sabah almost came back — Veljko Simic reduced the deficit, and Solvey levelled in the 90th minute, but his goal was ruled out after a VAR intervention for offside. The Azerbaijani champions looked far more dangerous in the opposition half. They created almost twice as much xG (1.06-0.58) and had more shots (15-10). Sabah can lack composure at times, but their five competitive matches of the new season have shown that Dambrauskas' staff have adapted to the workload and will continue to rely on a 4-2-3-1 formation.
Aarhus have some structural issues. Leading centre-back Frederik Tingager was injured early in the first match against Sabah — without him, they had to reshuffle, while the back line played more simply and avoided risky passes. Poulsen's staff have quickly integrated the new arrivals — Andersen, Carstensen, Rösler and Jønsson are getting plenty of minutes, but the squad lacks depth. The Zambian talent James Bogere scored a brace for the Danes in the first meeting, but the 18-year-old forward had not scored a single goal in competitive matches for Aarhus before that. Substitute striker Janni Serra inspires little confidence — he was brought on late against Sabah to deal with the aerial threat.
The win over Sabah was only Aarhus' second of the current season. The Scandinavians heroically got past Lech Poznan in the previous round (6:5 on aggregate), having lost 1:4 away. In Azerbaijan, Poulsen's side will not be able to put together a reliable 90 minutes in defence — a three-defender system will make mistakes. Dambrauskas' side look the better option on home soil.