Odds overview
Flamengo are clear favourites: a home win is around 1.35, while a draw is available at 4.30 and an Estudiantes win at 8.40. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.70 has shorter odds than Over 2.5 goals at 2.01. In the handicap market, Estudiantes (-1.5) at 1.65 has shorter odds than Flamengo (-1.5) at 2.07; at a handicap line of -1, Flamengo (-1) are shorter at 1.57 than Estudiantes (-1) at 2.20.
Why Flamengo are favourites
Flamengo are available to win at 1.35, a draw at 4.30 and Estudiantes to win at 8.40.
- Flamengo finished first in the Copa Libertadores group stage with 16 points and a 14:2 goal difference after six matches. Estudiantes were second with 9 points and a 6:5 goal difference.
- The first leg did not show complete dominance by the favourites: Estudiantes recorded 1.23 xG to Flamengo's 0.19.
Form and Line-up Flamengo
Flamengo drew 0:0 away to Estudiantes in the first leg of the semi-final. Three days later, the Brazilians beat Bahia 3:0 away in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A.
- Flamengo's opponents have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in their last 10 home matches in the Copa Libertadores.
- Flamengo have scored more than 0.5 goals in their last 10 home matches in the Copa Libertadores.
- Flamengo's opponents have had fewer than 4.5 shots on target in their last 10 home matches in the Copa Libertadores.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Agustín Rossi, Emerson Royal, Léo Ortiz, Léo Pereira, Alex Sandro, Eric Pulgar, Jorginho, Jorge Carrascal, Lucas Paqueta, Samuel Lino, Bruno Henrique.
Danilo is unavailable for Flamengo. Evertton Araújo, Saúl Ñíguez, Giorgian De Arrascaeta and Ayrton Lucas are doubtful; Jorginho is available.
Form and Line-up Estudiantes
Following a 0:0 home draw with Flamengo, Estudiantes lost 1:2 to San Lorenzo in the Superliga.
- Estudiantes' opponents have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in their last 10 Copa Libertadores matches.
- Estudiantes have scored more than 0.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 away matches in the Copa Libertadores.
- The combined total of both teams' attempted shots, including blocked shots, was under 26.5 in 9 of Estudiantes' last 10 away matches in the Copa Libertadores.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Fernando Muslera, Eros Mancuso, Santiago Núñez, Ramiro Funes Mori, Gastón Benedetti, Baltasar Rodríguez, Ezequiel Piovi, Alexis Castro, Joaquín Tobio Burgos, Tiago Palacios, Guido Carrillo.
Each team's chances
Flamengo are available to win at 1.35, with fair odds of 1.47 and a probability of 67.8%. The corresponding figures are 4.30, 4.70 and 21.3% for a draw, and 8.40, 9.18 and 10.9% for an Estudiantes win.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability excluding margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo to win | 1.35 | 1.47 | 67.8% |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.70 | 21.3% |
| Estudiantes to win | 8.40 | 9.18 | 10.9% |
Total goals prediction
At a line of 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 at 1.70 has shorter odds than Over 2.5 at 2.01. At 2 goals, Under 2 is longer at 2.30, while Over 2 is available at 1.52; at 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 is favoured at 1.24 against 3.35 for Over 3.5.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.70 | 2.01 |
| 2 | 2.30 | 1.52 |
| 3.5 | 1.24 | 3.35 |
Handicap prediction
Estudiantes (-1.5) at 1.65 have shorter odds than Flamengo (-1.5) at 2.07. At a handicap line of -1, the positions are reversed: Flamengo (-1) are at 1.57 and Estudiantes (-1) at 2.20.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.07 | -1.5 | 1.65 |
| 1.57 | -1 | 2.20 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/100
|
9/50
|
2/1
|
| William Hill |
3/50
|
9/50
|
11/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Flamengo — 1.5 goals; Estudiantes — 0.5 goals.
Flamengo team goals
For Flamengo's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.11 has much shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 4.75. At a line of 1.5, Over 1.5 is at 1.62 against 2.12 for Under 1.5, while at 2.5, Under 2.5 has shorter odds at 1.35 than Over 2.5 at 2.79.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.75 | 0.5 | 1.11 |
| 2.12 | 1.5 | 1.62 |
| 1.35 | 2.5 | 2.79 |
Estudiantes team goals
For Estudiantes' team goals, Under 0.5 at 1.63 has shorter odds than Over 0.5 at 2.10. At a line of 1.5, Under 1.5 at 1.07 has much shorter odds than Over 1.5 at 5.50.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.63 | 0.5 | 2.10 |
| 1.07 | 1.5 | 5.50 |
