Odds overview
The betting markets give Palmeiras a slight edge at 2.65 to win: the draw is available at 2.85 and a Fluminense win at around 2.95. The main goals market favours the Under 2.5 option at 1.40, compared with 2.75 for Over 2.5. In the handicap market, Palmeiras Draw No Bet (0) at 1.78 looks more attractive than Fluminense Draw No Bet (0) at 1.98.
Why Palmeiras are favourites
Bookmakers give the visitors a modest advantage: Palmeiras are 2.65 to win, Fluminense are 2.95, and the draw is available at 2.85.
- Palmeiras lead the Copa Libertadores in expected goals, creating 1.93 xG per game.
- The hosts come into the match after a league defeat to Flamengo, during which head coach Marcão rotated the squad to preserve his key players' energy.
Form and Line-up Fluminense
At home in the Copa Libertadores, Fluminense have consistently contained opposing attacks: in nine of their last ten home matches in the competition, opponents managed no more than four shots on target and fewer than 13.5 shots overall.
- Fluminense are unbeaten in nine of their last ten home matches in the Copa Libertadores.
- Fluminense have scored at least once in nine of their last ten home matches in the Copa Libertadores.
- Over 1.5 goals were scored in eight of Fluminense's last ten home matches in the Copa Libertadores.
Probable line-up: Fábio, Samuel Xavier, Ignacio, Millán, Guilherme Arana, Martinelli, Nonato, Lucho Acosta, Agustín Canobbio, Soteldo, Castillo.
Germán Cano is still recovering, and his involvement in the match remains in doubt.
Form and Line-up Palmeiras
Palmeiras have imposed their game throughout the Copa Libertadores: they have matched or exceeded their opponents' shot count in nine of their ten matches in the competition, while opponents have scored no more than once against them in nine of those ten games.
- More than 7.5 corners have been taken in each of Palmeiras' last ten away matches in the Copa Libertadores.
- Palmeiras have scored at least once in nine of their last ten away matches in the Copa Libertadores.
- At least two goals have been scored in nine of Palmeiras' last ten away matches in the Copa Libertadores.
Probable line-up: Carlos Miguel, Giay, Barbosa, Gustavo Gomez, Murilo, Piquerez, Andreas Pereira, Lucas Evangelista, Jhon Arias, Vitor Roque, Flaco López.
Paulinho is returning to full training, but his place in the starting line-up has not been confirmed.
The teams' chances
The margin-free assessment gives Fluminense a 31.8% chance of winning, with average odds of 2.95 and fair odds of 3.15; the draw has a 32.9% chance, with corresponding odds of 2.85 and 3.04. Palmeiras lead with a 35.4% chance: their average odds are 2.65 and their fair odds are 2.83.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense to win | 2.95 | 3.15 | 31.8% |
| Draw | 2.85 | 3.04 | 32.9% |
| Palmeiras to win | 2.65 | 2.83 | 35.4% |
Total goals prediction
The market favours Under 2.5 goals at 1.40 over Over 2.5 goals at 2.75. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.68 against 2.05 for Over 2; the gap is wider at 3.5 goals, with Under 3.5 at 1.10 and Over 3.5 at 5.30.
| Goals line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.40 | 2.75 |
| 2 | 1.68 | 2.05 |
| 3.5 | 1.10 | 5.30 |
Handicap prediction
Fluminense (-1.5) are offered at 6.30 and Palmeiras (-1.5) at 5.80; at +1.5, the odds are almost equal: Fluminense (+1.5) are 1.09 and Palmeiras (+1.5) are 1.07. At the -1 handicap line, Palmeiras (-1) are shorter at 4.80 than Fluminense (-1) at 5.30; at the +1 line, Palmeiras (+1) are 1.11 against 1.13 for Fluminense (+1). For a handicap of 0, Palmeiras (0) are shorter at 1.78 than Fluminense (0) at 1.98.
| Home team | Handicap | Away team |
|---|---|---|
| 6.30 | -1.5 | 5.80 |
| 1.09 | 1.5 | 1.07 |
| 5.30 | -1 | 4.80 |
| 1.13 | 1 | 1.11 |
| 1.98 | 0 | 1.78 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – No at 1.60 is favoured over Both teams to score – Yes at 2.30: the market considers it more likely that at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.30 |
| No | 1.60 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/25
|
9/25
|
2/5
|
| William Hill |
2/5
|
11/25
|
9/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Fluminense — 1 goal; Palmeiras — 1 goal.
Fluminense team total goals
For Fluminense's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.53 is favoured over Under 0.5 at 2.35. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is shorter at 1.55 than Over 1 at 2.30; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is 1.25 against 3.50 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.35 | 0.5 | 1.53 |
| 1.55 | 1 | 2.30 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.50 |
Palmeiras team total goals
For Palmeiras' team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.47 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 2.50. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is 1.68 against 2.05 for Over 1; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is 1.30 and Over 1.5 is 3.15.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | 0.5 | 1.47 |
| 1.68 | 1 | 2.05 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 3.15 |
