Odds overview
France are clear favourites to win at around 1.43, while the draw is available at 5.10 and an Italy win at 6.60. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.47 is notably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.60. For a zero handicap, France (0) at 1.14 are considered much more likely than Italy (0) at 4.60.
Why France are favourites
A France win is available at 1.43, an Italy win at 6.60 and the draw at 5.10.
- France have shown strong defensive reliability, allowing their opponents no more than one goal in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Italy have also tended to play tight matches: fewer than five goals were scored in 8 of their previous 10 games across all competitions.
Form and Line-up France
Under Zinédine Zidane, France began their September UEFA Nations League fixtures with two away wins by the same 1:0 scoreline — against Turkey and Belgium. Against Turkey, France pressed high and retained control of the ball in the second half.
France's attack has been consistent: they have scored at least once in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- There were over 7.5 corners in 9 of France's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- France had over 3.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- The two teams combined for over 23.5 shot attempts in 8 of France's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Mike Maignan, Pierre Kalulu, Jérémy Jacquet, Andy Diouf, Maxence Lacroix, Maghnes Akliouche, Eduardo Camavinga, Bradley Barcola, Désiré Doué, Lucas Da Cunha, Estéban Lepaul
Form and Line-up Italy
Italy had mixed results in September during Roberto Mancini's second spell in charge: a 0:2 home defeat to Belgium was followed by a convincing 4:1 away win over Turkey. An expanded squad of 34 players gave them more scope for rotation amid a packed schedule.
- There were under 9.5 corners in 8 of Italy's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- There were under 5.5 yellow cards in 9 of Italy's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Italy's opponents were caught offside fewer than 1.5 times in their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (5-3-2): Gianluigi Donnarumma, Michael Kayode, Matteo Ruggeri, Nicolò Fagioli, Sebastiano Esposito, Sandro Tonali, Giacomo Raspadori, Davide Frattesi, Giorgio Scalvini, Alessandro Bastoni, Francesco Pio Esposito
The teams' chances
For a France win, the average odds are 1.43, the fair odds are 1.50 and the probability is 66.8%. The corresponding figures for the draw are 5.10, 5.34 and 18.7%; for an Italy win, they are 6.60, 6.91 and 14.5%. France remain clear favourites.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| France to win | 1.43 | 1.50 | 66.8% |
| Draw | 5.10 | 5.34 | 18.7% |
| Italy to win | 6.60 | 6.91 | 14.5% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.47 is notably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.60. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.70 is the favourite over Over 3.5 goals at 2.15.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.60 | 1.47 |
| 3.5 | 1.70 | 2.15 |
Handicap prediction
France (-1.5) are available at 2.10 and Italy (+1.5) at 1.75, giving the visitors with a positive handicap slightly more support. At the one-goal line, France (-1) at 1.63 are favoured over Italy (+1) at 2.20. With a zero handicap, France (0) at 1.14 are much shorter than Italy (0) at 4.60.
| Home team | Handicap | Away team |
|---|---|---|
| 2.10 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.75 | |
| 1.63 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.20 | |
| 1.14 | 0 | 4.60 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.65 is favoured over Both teams to score — No at 2.15: the latter requires at least one team to fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.65 |
| No | 2.15 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/100
|
9/50
|
163/100
|
| William Hill |
3/25
|
1/5
|
81/50
|
| 888sport |
3/25
|
9/50
|
17/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: France — 2 goals, Italy — 1 goal.
France team total goals
France team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.04 is much shorter than Under 0.5 at 8.00. At 1.5, Over 1.5 is available at 1.40 against Under 1.5 at 2.70; at 2, Over 2 is at 1.68 against Under 2 at 2.13. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is shorter at 1.65, while Over 2.5 is available at 2.18.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 8.00 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.70 | 1.5 | 1.40 |
| 2.13 | 2 | 1.68 |
| 1.65 | 2.5 | 2.18 |
Italy team total goals
Italy team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.55 is favoured over Under 0.5 at 2.35. At the one-goal line, Under 1 is shorter at 1.57, while Over 1 is available at 2.35; at 1.5, Under 1.5 at 1.28 is notably shorter than Over 1.5 at 3.35.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.35 | 0.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.57 | 1 | 2.35 |
| 1.28 | 1.5 | 3.35 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jesús Gil Manzano (Spain)
Matches — 11 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.4;
Matches with a red card — 3 out of 11;
Matches with a penalty — 4 out of 11.
Mike Maignan
Adrien Lilian Gaëtan Truffert
Jérémy Jacquet
Dayotchanculle Oswald Upamecano
Pierre Kalulu
Lucas Da Cunha
Désiré Nonka-Maho Doué
Guillaume Lino Restes
Jules Olivier Koundé
Leny Jean-Luc Yoro
Andy Diouf
Eduardo Celmi Camavinga
Estéban Lepaul
Giorgio Scalvini
Michael Olabode Kayode
Nicolò Fagioli
Davide Frattesi
Sebastiano Esposito
Issa Doumbia
Mohamed Alì Zoma
Daniel Maldini
