Odds overview
Bayern Munich are clear favourites: a Bayern win is available at 1.40, while a Freiburg win and a draw are around 6.50 and 5.80 respectively. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals is strongly favoured over Under 2.5 goals, at 1.25 against 3.65. Bayern Munich Draw No Bet (handicap 0) is quoted at 1.14, while Freiburg Draw No Bet (handicap 0) is 4.60.
Why Bayern Munich are favourites
Bookmakers give Bayern Munich a considerable edge in this Matchday 7 Bundesliga fixture: a Bayern win is offered at 1.40 (approximately 68.6% probability without the margin), while a Freiburg win is available at 6.50 and a draw at 5.80.
- Bayern Munich pose an exceptional attacking threat: with 3.53 xG per match, they lead the Bundesliga by a clear margin.
- Freiburg concede an average of 1 goal per match (third from bottom in the league), but the hosts will find it difficult to contain Bayern Munich's attacking threat.
Form and Line-up Freiburg
Freiburg suffered their first defeat of the season in the previous Bundesliga round, losing 1:2 to Bayer Leverkusen. After the match, head coach Julian Schuster said his side had controlled the game well but conceded two preventable goals.
The hosts have also shown discipline when it comes to offsides: Freiburg's players have been caught offside fewer than 2.5 times per match in their last 10 Bundesliga games.
- Freiburg have scored at least two goals in 8 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in 8 of Freiburg's last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
- Freiburg have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in each of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-2-2): Mio Backhaus, Philipp Treu, Matthias Ginter, Philipp Lienhart, Jordy Makengo, Maximilian Eggestein, Yannik Engelhardt, Niklas Beste, Derry Scherhant, Keisuke Goto, Igor Matanović
Form and Line-up Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich come into the match on a strong run in the league, having gone 10 consecutive Bundesliga away matches unbeaten. Before travelling to Freiburg, they also played Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League, while head coach Vincent Kompany had been recovering from a viral infection.
Bayern Munich's defensive figures are also encouraging: their opponents have been caught offside fewer than 2.5 times per game across Bayern's last 10 Bundesliga matches.
- Over 3.5 goals has landed in Bayern Munich's last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
- Bayern Munich have scored over 1.5 goals in their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
- Bayern Munich have taken over 4.5 corners in their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Jonas Urbig, Konrad Laimer, Dayot Upamecano, Min-jae Kim, Nathaniel Brown, Joshua Kimmich, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Michael Olise, Ismael Saibari, Luis Díaz, Harry Kane
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Bayern Munich a 68.6% chance of winning: a Bayern win is offered at 1.40, with fair odds of 1.46. Freiburg have a 14.8% chance of winning (6.50; fair odds 6.76), while a draw has a 16.6% chance (5.80; fair odds 6.04).
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg to win | 6.50 | 6.76 | 14.8% |
| Draw | 5.80 | 6.04 | 16.6% |
| Bayern Munich to win | 1.40 | 1.46 | 68.6% |
Total goals betting
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.25, compared with 3.65 for Under 2.5 goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Over 3.5 goals is also favoured, at 1.65 against 2.25 for Under 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 3.65 | 1.25 |
| 3.5 | 2.25 | 1.65 |
Handicap betting
Bayern Munich (-1.5) and Freiburg (+1.5) are both offered at 1.90. At the 1-goal line, Bayern Munich (-1) are available at 1.53 and Freiburg (+1) at 2.40; at a zero handicap, Bayern Munich (0) are much shorter at 1.14 than Freiburg (0) at 4.60.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1.90 | |
| 1.90 | 1.5 | |
| -1 | 1.53 | |
| 2.40 | 1 | |
| 4.60 | 0 | 1.14 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.42, while Both teams to score — No, meaning at least one team will fail to score, is available at 2.65.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.42 |
| No | 2.65 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
2/1
|
7/50
|
11/100
|
| 888sport |
2/1
|
7/50
|
11/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Freiburg — 1 goal; Bayern Munich — 2.5 goals.
Freiburg team total goals
Freiburg team total: Over 0.5 goals is quoted at 1.38, compared with 2.85 for Under 0.5 goals. At the 1-goal line, the odds are close: Under 1 goal is 1.90 and Over 1 goal is 1.85. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is favoured at 1.40, while Over 1.5 goals is available at 2.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.85 | 0.5 | 1.38 |
| 1.90 | 1 | 1.85 |
| 1.40 | 1.5 | 2.75 |
Bayern Munich team total goals
Bayern Munich team total: Over 2 goals is offered at 1.37, compared with 2.85 for Under 2 goals. At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.75 and Under 2.5 goals at 2.00; at the 3-goal line, Under 3 goals is favoured at 1.63 over Over 3 goals at 2.20.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.85 | 2 | 1.37 |
| 2.00 | 2.5 | 1.75 |
| 1.63 | 3 | 2.20 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Felix Zwayer (Germany)
Matches — 20 (Bundesliga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 21;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.2;
Matches with red cards — 3 out of 20;
Matches with penalties — 6 out of 20.
