Odds Overview
SC Freiburg are clear favourites: Freiburg to win is priced at 1.22, while the draw and Motherwell to win are rated at 6.30 and 11.00. In the main total, Over 2.5 goals at 1.43 is notably preferred to Under 2.5 goals at 2.60. On the handicap, Freiburg (-1.5) at 1.62 is priced lower than Motherwell (+1.5) at 2.25, which points to expectations of a convincing home win.
Why SC Freiburg Are Favourites
The bookmakers give the German side a clear advantage: a SC Freiburg win is priced at 1.22, while a Motherwell victory is 11.00, with 6.30 available on the draw.
- SC Freiburg have already shown their superior quality, recording a convincing 3:1 win in the first match in Scotland.
- The hosts confirmed their squad depth in the cup game against Fortuna Dusseldorf (5:1), where the coaching staff successfully changed five starting positions without any loss of quality.
Form and Line-up SC Freiburg
Last season was historic for Julian Schuster's team: a run to the Europa League final through heavy aggregate wins over Celta Vigo (6:1 on aggregate) and Genk (5:1 in the second leg), before only a defeat to Aston Villa (0:3) in the decisive match.
In the first game against Motherwell, the Germans came from behind after an early goal and confidently saw the match through to victory. Their matches are regularly high-scoring — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 8 of their last 10 games in all competitions.
Key numbers:
- SC Freiburg have scored at least two goals in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- SC Freiburg's opponents have scored at least once in all of their last 10 matches.
- Matthias Ginter scored twice in the first meeting, including a penalty.
Probable SC Freiburg line-up (4-2-3-1): Noah Atubolu — Lukas Kubler, Matthias Ginter, Philipp Lienhart, Jordy Makengo — Maximilian Eggestein, Patrick Osterhage — Jan-Niklas Beste, Yuito Suzuki, Vincenzo Grifo — Lucas Holer.
Form and Line-up Motherwell
The Scottish side earned the right to start in the second qualifying round after finishing fourth in the league. In the previous round they got past HJK thanks to a 2:0 home win, while in the League Cup they lost to Stenhousemuir (0:1) after making eight changes to the starting line-up.
In Motherwell, the team opened the scoring in the second minute but could not hold on to their lead against the Europa League finalists. With their game against Aberdeen postponed, the Scottish side had a full week to recover, while their attack has been strengthened by Seb Palmer-Houlden, who has already made his debut from the bench.
Key numbers:
- Motherwell have scored at least one goal in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- The team have scored under 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches.
- Their average xG in the tournament sample is 0.24.
Probable Motherwell line-up (4-3-3): Alex Paulsen — Jake Girdwood-Reich, Jamie Knight-Lebel, Ewan Wilson, Emmanuel Longelo — Joe Hodge, Lukas Fadinger, Alex Lowry — Ibrahim Said, Tawanda Maswanhise, Regan Charles-Cook.
Absentees: Martin Moormann (suspended), Oscar Priestman and John Koutroumbis (injuries). Tom Sparrow is doubtful.
Teams' Chances
SC Freiburg to win has average odds of 1.22; the no-margin price is 1.30 and the probability is 76.7%. For the draw, the figures are 6.30, 6.74 and 14.8%, and for Motherwell to win they are 11.00, 11.76 and 8.5% respectively.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average odds without margin | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 1.22 | 1.30 | 76.7% |
| Draw | 6.30 | 6.74 | 14.8% |
| Motherwell win | 11.00 | 11.76 | 8.5% |
Total Goals Prediction
Under 2.5 goals is offered at 2.60, while Over 2.5 goals is 1.43, so the market expects at least three goals. For Under 3.5 goals, the 1.70 price is lower than Over 3.5 goals at 2.10, with a slight lean towards a lower-scoring scenario.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.60 | 1.43 |
| 3.5 | 1.70 | 2.10 |
Handicap Prediction
Freiburg (-1.5) is priced at 1.62, while Motherwell (+1.5) is 2.25. The gap is even stronger on the one-goal line: Freiburg (-1) is 1.30 versus 3.15 on Motherwell (+1). Freiburg Draw No Bet at 1.05 is clearly preferred to Motherwell Draw No Bet at 7.40.
| Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
|---|---|---|
| 1.62 | -1.5 | — |
| — | 1.5 | 2.25 |
| 1.30 | -1 | — |
| — | 1 | 3.15 |
| 1.05 | 0 | 7.40 |
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Both teams to score - No at 1.75 is priced lower than Both teams to score - Yes at 2.00. This means the market rates the scenario in which at least one team fails to score slightly more highly.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.00 |
| No | 1.75 |
Double Chance Prediction
1X at 1.02 looks almost like the baseline outcome. The 12 option is rated at 1.10, while X2 at 4.05 is substantially less likely.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
1/50
|
1/10
|
61/20
|
Team Total Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: SC Freiburg — 2.5 goals, Motherwell — 0.5 goals.
SC Freiburg Team Total
SC Freiburg: Under 2 goals is 2.65, while Over 2 goals is 1.43. On the 2.5 line, the odds are level: Under 2.5 and Over 2.5 goals are both offered at 1.85. For the 3 line, Under 3 goals is priced at 1.48 and Over 3 goals at 2.45.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 2 | 1.43 |
| 1.85 | 2.5 | 1.85 |
| 1.48 | 3 | 2.45 |
Motherwell Team Total
Motherwell: Under 0.5 goals at 1.80 is priced slightly lower than Over 0.5 goals at 1.90. Under 1 goal is rated at 1.25 versus 3.50 on Over 1 goal, while Under 1.5 goals is 1.13 versus 4.80 on Over 1.5 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | 0.5 | 1.90 |
| 1.25 | 1 | 3.50 |
| 1.13 | 1.5 | 4.80 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Andrea Colombo (France)
Matches – 6 (international matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match – 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.8;
Matches with red cards – 2 of 6;
Matches with penalties – 3 of 6.
