Georgia vs Ukraine: prediction & betting odds 28 September 2026

Odds overview

Georgia are slight favourites in the 1X2 market: Georgia to win is 2.65, Ukraine to win 2.75 and the draw 3.30. In the main 2.5-goal totals market, Under 2.5 is shorter at 1.75 than Over 2.5 at 2.10. The handicap (0) odds are almost equal: Georgia (0) are 1.88 and Ukraine (0) are 1.92.

Why Georgia are favourites

Bookmakers rate the teams' chances as almost equal: Georgia to win is offered at 2.65, Ukraine to win at 2.75 and the draw at 3.30.

• Georgia are at home, and home advantage is often decisive in UEFA Nations League matches.
• Ukraine will be without Dovbyk — their main striker. Without him, the visitors' attack is less dangerous, reducing their chances of a positive result in Tbilisi.
• Georgia have scored at least once in eight of their last ten matches and in six consecutive meetings with Ukraine.

Form and Line-up Georgia

Georgia have played four friendlies in 2026 without losing (two wins and two draws). In the previous UEFA Nations League campaign, they finished third in League B but retained their place by beating Armenia in the play-offs (3:0, 6:1). Georgia will play Northern Ireland on 25 September before facing Ukraine on 28 September 2026.

• Georgia have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
• Georgia have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
• Fewer than 4.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Georgia's last 10 matches across all competitions.

Probable line-up (4-3-3): Giorgi Mamardashvili, Irakli Azarovi, Luka Lochoshvili, Lasha Dvali, Otar Kiteishvili, Giorgi Tsitaishvili, Giorgi Chakvetadze, Giorgi Kochorashvili, Zurab Davitashvili, Georges Mikautadze, Khvicha Kvarackhelija.

Form and Line-up Ukraine

Ukraine have played three friendlies in 2026 — winning two and trailing Denmark 1:2 in the third when it was stopped after Christian Eriksen collapsed. Ukraine finished second in League B in the previous UEFA Nations League campaign. They faced Belgium for promotion but lost over the two legs, with scores of 3:1 and 0:3. Ukraine will play Hungary in the UEFA Nations League on 25 September before facing Georgia on 28 September 2026.

• Ukraine have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
• Ukraine have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
• Fewer than 4.5 goals have been scored in 9 of Ukraine's last 10 matches.

Probable line-up (4-1-4-1): Anatoliy Trubin, Bogdan Mihaylichenko, Ilya Zabarnyi, Mykola Matvienko, Vitaliy Mikolenko, Volodymyr Brazhko, Viktor Tsyhankov, Yegor Nazaryna, Georgiy Sudakov, Alexandr Zubkov, Matviy Ponomarenko.

Absentees: Artem Dovbyk, Oleksandr Andriyevskyi, Ruslan Malinovskyi (all injured).

Teams' chances

Without the bookmaker's margin, Georgia to win has a 36.1% probability, with odds of 2.65 and fair odds of 2.77. Ukraine to win is rated at 34.8%: odds of 2.75 against fair odds of 2.87. The draw is less likely at 29.0%, with odds of 3.30 against fair odds of 3.45.

Total goals prediction

Under 2.5 goals is offered at 1.75, compared with 2.10 for Over 2.5. At a line of 2 goals, Over 2 is the favourite at 1.55, while Under 2 is 2.40. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 is quoted at 1.27 and Over 3.5 at 3.40.

Handicap prediction

The odds for Georgia (-1.5) and Ukraine (-1.5) are high and close together — 5.00 and 5.20. At a handicap line of 1.5, Georgia (+1.5) are 1.11 and Ukraine (+1.5) are 1.12; at a line of 1, they are 1.16 and 1.17 respectively. At handicap (0), Georgia are marginally favoured at 1.88 over Ukraine at 1.92.

Both teams to score prediction

Both teams to score — Yes is quoted at 1.82, slightly shorter than Both teams to score — No at 1.92. This suggests a slight preference for both teams finding the net; the No option means at least one team will fail to score.

Double chance forecast

Bookmaker	1X	12	X2
Bet365	3/10	3/10	67/100
William Hill	11/25	9/25	11/25
888sport	33/100	3/10	67/100

Odds are current as of the material publication date

Team total goals prediction

Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Georgia — 1 goal, Ukraine — 1 goal.

Georgia team total goals

For Georgia's team total, Over 0.5 goals is 1.32 against 3.10 for Under 0.5. At a line of 1 goal, Over 1 is quoted at 1.65 and Under 1 at 2.15. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is shorter at 1.50, while Over 1.5 is 2.50.

Ukraine team total goals

For Ukraine's team total, Over 0.5 goals is 1.35 against 2.95 for Under 0.5. At a line of 1 goal, Over 1 at 1.72 is shorter than Under 1 at 2.05. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is quoted at 1.47 and Over 1.5 at 2.60.