Odds overview
Georgia are slight favourites in the 1X2 market: Georgia to win is 2.65, Ukraine to win 2.75 and the draw 3.30. In the main 2.5-goal totals market, Under 2.5 is shorter at 1.75 than Over 2.5 at 2.10. The handicap (0) odds are almost equal: Georgia (0) are 1.88 and Ukraine (0) are 1.92.
Why Georgia are favourites
Bookmakers rate the teams' chances as almost equal: Georgia to win is offered at 2.65, Ukraine to win at 2.75 and the draw at 3.30.
- Georgia are at home, and home advantage is often decisive in UEFA Nations League matches.
- Ukraine will be without Dovbyk — their main striker. Without him, the visitors' attack is less dangerous, reducing their chances of a positive result in Tbilisi.
- Georgia have scored at least once in eight of their last ten matches and in six consecutive meetings with Ukraine.
Form and Line-up Georgia
Georgia have played four friendlies in 2026 without losing (two wins and two draws). In the previous UEFA Nations League campaign, they finished third in League B but retained their place by beating Armenia in the play-offs (3:0, 6:1). Georgia will play Northern Ireland on 25 September before facing Ukraine on 28 September 2026.
- Georgia have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Georgia have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Fewer than 4.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Georgia's last 10 matches across all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Giorgi Mamardashvili, Irakli Azarovi, Luka Lochoshvili, Lasha Dvali, Otar Kiteishvili, Giorgi Tsitaishvili, Giorgi Chakvetadze, Giorgi Kochorashvili, Zurab Davitashvili, Georges Mikautadze, Khvicha Kvarackhelija.
Form and Line-up Ukraine
Ukraine have played three friendlies in 2026 — winning two and trailing Denmark 1:2 in the third when it was stopped after Christian Eriksen collapsed. Ukraine finished second in League B in the previous UEFA Nations League campaign. They faced Belgium for promotion but lost over the two legs, with scores of 3:1 and 0:3. Ukraine will play Hungary in the UEFA Nations League on 25 September before facing Georgia on 28 September 2026.
- Ukraine have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Ukraine have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Fewer than 4.5 goals have been scored in 9 of Ukraine's last 10 matches.
Probable line-up (4-1-4-1): Anatoliy Trubin, Bogdan Mihaylichenko, Ilya Zabarnyi, Mykola Matvienko, Vitaliy Mikolenko, Volodymyr Brazhko, Viktor Tsyhankov, Yegor Nazaryna, Georgiy Sudakov, Alexandr Zubkov, Matviy Ponomarenko.
Absentees: Artem Dovbyk, Oleksandr Andriyevskyi, Ruslan Malinovskyi (all injured).
Teams' chances
Without the bookmaker's margin, Georgia to win has a 36.1% probability, with odds of 2.65 and fair odds of 2.77. Ukraine to win is rated at 34.8%: odds of 2.75 against fair odds of 2.87. The draw is less likely at 29.0%, with odds of 3.30 against fair odds of 3.45.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia to win | 2.65 | 2.77 | 36.1% |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.45 | 29.0% |
| Ukraine to win | 2.75 | 2.87 | 34.8% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is offered at 1.75, compared with 2.10 for Over 2.5. At a line of 2 goals, Over 2 is the favourite at 1.55, while Under 2 is 2.40. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 is quoted at 1.27 and Over 3.5 at 3.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.75 | 2.10 |
| 2 | 2.40 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.27 | 3.40 |
Handicap prediction
The odds for Georgia (-1.5) and Ukraine (-1.5) are high and close together — 5.00 and 5.20. At a handicap line of 1.5, Georgia (+1.5) are 1.11 and Ukraine (+1.5) are 1.12; at a line of 1, they are 1.16 and 1.17 respectively. At handicap (0), Georgia are marginally favoured at 1.88 over Ukraine at 1.92.
| Home team | Handicap | Away team |
|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | -1.5 | 5.20 |
| 1.11 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
| 4.20 | -1 | 4.30 |
| 1.16 | 1 | 1.17 |
| 1.88 | 0 | 1.92 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is quoted at 1.82, slightly shorter than Both teams to score — No at 1.92. This suggests a slight preference for both teams finding the net; the No option means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.82 |
| No | 1.92 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
3/10
|
3/10
|
67/100
|
| William Hill |
11/25
|
9/25
|
11/25
|
| 888sport |
33/100
|
3/10
|
67/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Georgia — 1 goal, Ukraine — 1 goal.
Georgia team total goals
For Georgia's team total, Over 0.5 goals is 1.32 against 3.10 for Under 0.5. At a line of 1 goal, Over 1 is quoted at 1.65 and Under 1 at 2.15. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is shorter at 1.50, while Over 1.5 is 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.10 | 0.5 | 1.32 |
| 2.15 | 1 | 1.65 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | 2.50 |
Ukraine team total goals
For Ukraine's team total, Over 0.5 goals is 1.35 against 2.95 for Under 0.5. At a line of 1 goal, Over 1 at 1.72 is shorter than Under 1 at 2.05. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is quoted at 1.47 and Over 1.5 at 2.60.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.95 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.05 | 1 | 1.72 |
| 1.47 | 1.5 | 2.60 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Aliyar Agayev (Azerbaijan)
Matches – 10 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) – 4.6;
Matches with a red card – 3 out of 10;
Matches with a penalty – 2 out of 10.
Lasha Dvali
Luka Lochoshvili
Saba Goglichidze
Giorgi Chakvetadze
Giorgi Kochorashvili
Otar Kiteishvili
Giorgi Tsitaishvili
Davit Kereselidze
Luka Gugeshashvili
Jemal Tabidze
Saba Kharebashvili
Saba Sazonov
Anzor Mekvabishvili
Irakli Yegoian
Saba Lobjanidze
Budu Zivzivadze
Giorgi Kvernadze
Zuriko Davitashvili
Anatoliy Trubin
Bohdan Mykhailichenko
Taras Mykhavko
Valerii Bondar
Maksym Khlan
Vladyslav Vanat
Heorhii Yermakov
Danylo Sikan
Roman Yaremchuk
Viktor Tsygankov
