Odds overview
Georgia are slight favourites in the 1X2 market: Georgia to win is 2.65, Ukraine to win is 2.75 and the draw is 3.30. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 is shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.10. The handicap (0) odds are almost equal: Georgia (0) at 1.88 and Ukraine (0) at 1.92.
Why Georgia are favourites
Bookmakers rate the teams' chances as almost equal: Georgia to win is offered at 2.65, Ukraine to win at 2.75 and the draw at 3.30.
- Georgia are at home, and home advantage is often decisive in UEFA Nations League matches.
- Ukraine will be without Dovbyk — the team's main striker. Without him, the visitors' attack is less dangerous, reducing their chances of a positive result in Tbilisi.
- Georgia have scored at least once in eight of their last ten matches and have scored against Ukraine in six consecutive head-to-head meetings.
Form and Line-up Georgia
Georgia have played four friendlies in 2026 without losing, recording two wins and two draws. In the previous UEFA Nations League campaign, Georgia finished third in League B but stayed up after beating Armenia in the play-offs (3:0, 6:1). Georgia will play Northern Ireland on 25 September and then face Ukraine on 28 September 2026.
- Georgia have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Georgia have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Fewer than 4.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Georgia's last 10 matches across all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Giorgi Mamardashvili, Irakli Azarovi, Luka Lochoshvili, Lasha Dvali, Otar Kiteishvili, Giorgi Tsitaishvili, Giorgi Chakvetadze, Giorgi Kochorashvili, Zurab Davitashvili, Georges Mikautadze, Khvicha Kvarackhelija.
Form and Line-up Ukraine
Ukraine have played three friendlies in 2026 — winning two, while they were trailing Denmark 1:2 in the third when it was stopped after Christian Eriksen fainted. Ukraine finished the previous UEFA Nations League campaign second in League B. They faced Belgium for promotion but could not overcome them across two matches — 3:1 and 0:3. Ukraine will play Hungary in the UEFA Nations League on 25 September and then face Georgia on 28 September 2026.
- Ukraine have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Ukraine have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Fewer than 4.5 goals have been scored in 9 of Ukraine's last 10 matches.
Probable line-up (4-1-4-1): Anatoliy Trubin, Bogdan Mihaylichenko, Ilya Zabarnyi, Mykola Matvienko, Vitaliy Mikolenko, Volodymyr Brazhko, Viktor Tsyhankov, Yegor Nazaryna, Georgiy Sudakov, Alexandr Zubkov, Matviy Ponomarenko.
Absentees: Artem Dovbyk, Oleksandr Andriyevskyi, Ruslan Malinovskyi (all injured).
The teams' chances
Based on the margin-free assessment, Georgia have a 36.1% chance of winning, with odds of 2.65 and fair odds of 2.77. Ukraine's chance of winning is rated at 34.8%: 2.75 against fair odds of 2.87. A draw is less likely at 29.0%, with odds of 3.30 against fair odds of 3.45.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia to win | 2.65 | 2.77 | 36.1% |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.45 | 29.0% |
| Ukraine to win | 2.75 | 2.87 | 34.8% |
Total goals market
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.75, compared with 2.10 for Over 2.5 goals. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 goals is favoured at 1.55, while Under 2 goals is 2.40. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is quoted at 1.27 and Over 3.5 goals at 3.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.75 | 2.10 |
| 2 | 2.40 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.27 | 3.40 |
Handicap market
The odds for Georgia (-1.5) and Ukraine (-1.5) are high and close together — 5.00 and 5.20. At the 1.5-goal handicap line, Georgia (+1.5) is 1.11 and Ukraine (+1.5) is 1.12; at the 1-goal line, they are 1.16 and 1.17 respectively. At handicap (0), Georgia (0) at 1.88 are slightly favoured over Ukraine (0) at 1.92.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | -1.5 | 5.20 |
| 1.11 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
| 4.20 | -1 | 4.30 |
| 1.16 | 1 | 1.17 |
| 1.88 | 0 | 1.92 |
Both teams to score market
Both teams to score — Yes is quoted at 1.82, slightly shorter than Both teams to score — No at 1.92. This suggests a slight preference for both teams finding the net; the No option means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.82 |
| No | 1.92 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/25
|
9/25
|
11/25
|
| William Hill |
11/25
|
33/100
|
11/25
|
| 888sport |
11/25
|
33/100
|
11/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals markets
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Georgia — 1 goal, Ukraine — 1 goal.
Georgia team goals
Georgia team goals: Over 0.5 goals is available at 1.32, compared with 3.10 for Under 0.5 goals. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal is quoted at 1.65 and Under 1 goal at 2.15. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals has the shorter odds of 1.50, while Over 1.5 goals is 2.50.
| Under | Team goal line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.10 | 0.5 | 1.32 |
| 2.15 | 1 | 1.65 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | 2.50 |
Ukraine team goals
Ukraine team goals: Over 0.5 goals is available at 1.35, compared with 2.95 for Under 0.5 goals. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal at 1.72 is shorter than Under 1 goal at 2.05. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is quoted at 1.47 and Over 1.5 goals at 2.60.
| Under | Team goal line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.95 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.05 | 1 | 1.72 |
| 1.47 | 1.5 | 2.60 |
