Odds overview
Germany are clear favourites: a Germany win is available at 1.45, compared with 5.00 for a draw and 6.60 for a Greece win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 is considered considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.45. For the zero handicap, Germany (0) at 1.15 have much shorter odds than Greece (0) at 4.50.
Why Germany are favourites
The bookmakers favour the hosts: a Germany win is offered at 1.45, a draw at 5.00 and a Greece win at 6.60.
- Germany have been prolific, scoring in each of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- Germany drew 1:1 away to the Netherlands in the opening round, having taken the lead through a Nmecha goal.
Form and Line-up Germany
Germany are holding their first training camp under Jürgen Klopp. The coach has called up 44 players for the September–October international window, dividing them into two squads. With only two days' rest between the opening rounds, the coaching staff may rotate the team against Greece.
- The combined total of shots on target exceeded 7.5 in 8 of Germany's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Germany's opponents committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Germany's opponents received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Germany line-up (4-3-3): Marc-André ter Stegen, Philipp Treu, Jonathan Tah, Nico Schlotterbeck, Nathaniel Brown, Joshua Kimmich, Nadiem Amiri, Felix Nmecha, Karim Adeyemi, Serge Gnabry, Kevin Schade
Form and Line-up Greece
Greece began with a comeback victory away to Serbia (2:1). Trailing at half-time, the visitors equalised through Christos Tzolis in the 74th minute before Douvikas scored the winner in stoppage time. Greece outplayed their opponents, taking 26 shots to Serbia's 9 and generating 2.49 xG to 1.32.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in each of Greece's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Greece's opponents scored fewer than 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- The total number of cards did not exceed 5.5 in 9 of Greece's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
Probable Greece line-up (4-4-2): Konstantinos Tzolakis, Georgios Vagiannidis, Konstantinos Mavropanos, Panagiotis Retsos, Kostas Tsimikas, Konstantinos Karetsas, Dimitrios Kourbelis, Christos Zafeiris, Christos Tzolis, Charalampos Kostoulas, Vangelis Pavlidis
The teams' chances
A Germany win at 1.45 corresponds to a 66.2% probability excluding the bookmaker's margin and fair odds of 1.51. The draw has a 19.2% probability, with odds of 5.00 and fair odds of 5.21. A Greece win has a 14.6% probability, with odds of 6.60 and fair odds of 6.87.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability excluding margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany win | 1.45 | 1.51 | 66.2% |
| Draw | 5.00 | 5.21 | 19.2% |
| Greece win | 6.60 | 6.87 | 14.6% |
Total goals prediction
At a line of 2.5 goals, Over 2.5 at 1.50 has shorter odds than Under 2.5 at 2.45. At a line of 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 is the shorter option at 1.65, compared with 2.25 for Over 3.5.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.45 | 1.50 |
| 3.5 | 1.65 | 2.25 |
Handicap prediction
Germany (-1.5) are available at 2.13, while Greece (+1.5) are offered at 1.72. On the -1 handicap line, Germany (-1) are at 1.65, compared with 2.18 for Greece (+1). For the zero handicap, Germany (0) at 1.15 have much shorter odds than Greece (0) at 4.50.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.13 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.72 | |
| 1.65 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.18 | |
| 1.15 | 0 | 4.50 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.70 and looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.10, which would mean at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 |
| No | 2.10 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/10
|
17/100
|
7/4
|
| William Hill |
2/25
|
17/100
|
21/10
|
| 888sport |
11/100
|
9/50
|
7/4
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
The team goals odds suggest Germany are expected to score more than Greece.
Germany team goals
Germany team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.04 has much shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 8.00. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 is at 1.42 compared with 2.65 for Under 1.5; at the 2-goal line, Over 2 is at 1.73 and Under 2 at 2.05. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 has shorter odds at 1.60, while Over 2.5 is at 2.30.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 8.00 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.65 | 1.5 | 1.42 |
| 2.05 | 2 | 1.73 |
| 1.60 | 2.5 | 2.30 |
Greece team goals
Greece team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.58 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 2.30. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is at 1.53 compared with 2.40 for Over 1; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is at 1.25 and Over 1.5 at 3.55.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.30 | 0.5 | 1.58 |
| 1.53 | 1 | 2.40 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.55 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Chris Kavanagh (England)
Matches — 12 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.8;
Matches with a red card — 2 of 12;
Matches with a penalty — 1 of 12.
