Odds overview
Germany to win is available at 1.25, the draw at around 6.00 and Serbia to win at 11.00, making Germany clear favourites. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.40 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.70. Germany (-1.5) is offered at around 1.70, while Serbia (+1.5) is available at 2.15.
Why Germany are favourites
Bookmakers strongly favour the hosts: Germany to win is quoted at 1.25, the draw at 6.00 and Serbia to win at 11.00.
• Germany have been more active in attack than their opponents, attempting more shots in 8 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
• Serbia have lacked attacking threat: they have failed to record more shots on target than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 matches in the competition.
Form and Line-up Germany
Jürgen Klopp has had a difficult start as Germany manager: the team have yet to win. After drawing 1:1 with the Netherlands, Germany lost 0:1 at home to Greece.
Despite their results, Germany have consistently forced opponents back towards their own goal: their opponents' goal-kick figure of 13.5 ranks Germany third among the 54 UEFA Nations League teams.
- Germany have recorded more than 4.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Germany have committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Germany's opponents have taken fewer than 4.5 corners in 8 of Germany's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Alexander Nubel, Nathaniel Brown, Josha Vagnoman, Jonathan Tah, Yann Bisseck, Joshua Kimmich, Felix Nmecha, Kevin Schade, Bambasé Conté, Karim Adeyemi, Younes Ebnoutalib
Form and Line-up Serbia
Serbia began the campaign with two home defeats by the same 1:2 scoreline, first against Greece and then against the Netherlands.
Serbia's main problem remains the vulnerability of their own penalty area: their opponents' expected goals figure of 2.66 xG puts them third from bottom for defensive efficiency among the competition's 54 teams.
- All of Serbia's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches have featured fewer than 3.5 goals.
- Serbia have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Serbia have taken fewer than 3.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (5-4-1): Vanja Milinković-Savić, Kosta Nedeljkovic, Nemanja Gudelj, Srđan Babić, Strahinja Pavlović, Aleksa Terzić, Andrija Živković, Aleksandar Stanković, Saša Lukić, Sergej Milinković-Savić, Dejan Joveljić
The teams' chances
Germany to win is offered at 1.25, with fair odds of 1.32 and a probability of 75.6%. The corresponding figures are 6.00, 6.35 and 15.8% for the draw, and 11.00, 11.63 and 8.6% for Serbia to win: Germany are well ahead in the market's assessment.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany to win | 1.25 | 1.32 | 75.6% |
| Draw | 6.00 | 6.35 | 15.8% |
| Serbia to win | 11.00 | 11.63 | 8.6% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 at 1.40 is shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.70. The odds are closer at 3.5 goals: Under 3.5 is available at 1.77 and Over 3.5 at 2.05.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.70 | 1.40 |
| 3.5 | 1.77 | 2.05 |
Handicap prediction
Germany (-1.5) is available at 1.70, while Serbia (+1.5) is at 2.15. At the adjacent lines, Germany (-1) is offered at 1.35 against 3.00 for Serbia (+1). With a zero handicap, Germany Draw No Bet (0) is at 1.05 and Serbia Draw No Bet (0) at 7.20, underlining Germany's advantage.
| Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
|---|---|---|
| 1.70 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 2.15 | |
| 1.35 | -1 | |
| 1 | 3.00 | |
| 1.05 | 0 | 7.20 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.85, while No is at 1.90. The odds are almost equal, with a slight edge for both teams scoring; No means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.85 |
| No | 1.90 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/20
|
13/100
|
11/4
|
| William Hill |
1/20
|
3/25
|
3/1
|
| 888sport |
1/20
|
7/50
|
11/4
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Germany — 2.5 goals; Serbia — 0.5 goals.
Germany team total goals
For Germany's team total, Under 2 goals is available at 2.65 and Over 2 at 1.43; at the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 and Over 2.5 are almost level at 1.88 and 1.87. At the 3-goal line, Under 3 is at 1.50 and Over 3 at 2.50, so the market leans towards Germany scoring no more than three goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 2 | 1.43 |
| 1.88 | 2.5 | 1.87 |
| 1.50 | 3 | 2.50 |
Serbia team total goals
For Serbia's team total, Under 0.5 goals is offered at 1.98 and Over 0.5 at 1.78. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is at 1.32 against 3.10 for Over 1; at 1.5 goals, the respective odds are 1.16 and 4.30, indicating modest expectations for Serbia's scoring.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.98 | 0.5 | 1.78 |
| 1.32 | 1 | 3.10 |
| 1.16 | 1.5 | 4.30 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Espen Eskås (Norway)
Matches — 14 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) — 3.8;
Matches with a red card — 0 out of 14;
Matches with a penalty — 7 out of 14.
