Odds overview
Rayo Vallecano have a slight edge in the 1X2 market, with an away win at 2.70, compared with around 2.95 for a Getafe win and 3.00 for a draw. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.50 is considered much more likely than Over 2.5 goals at 2.50. Rayo Vallecano (0) at 1.83 is shorter than Getafe (0) at 1.98 in the handicap market.
Why there is no clear favourite
Bookmakers give the visitors a narrow edge: a Rayo Vallecano win is available at 2.70, compared with 2.95 for Getafe and 3.00 for a draw.
- The teams enter this meeting with similar league records: Rayo Vallecano are 13th with 8 points, while Getafe are immediately behind them in 14th, also with 8 points.
- Getafe have conceded at least once in six of their last seven matches, while Rayo Vallecano have made a costly defensive error in seven consecutive games.
- Six of the last 10 meetings between Getafe and Rayo Vallecano have ended in draws.
Form and Line-up Getafe
In their last match before the break, Getafe lost 0:3 away to Barcelona, managing just 1 shot on target to the Catalans' 8. The hosts also played Universitatea Craiova in the UEFA Conference League, drawing 1:1 after equalising in the 81st minute. The biggest news at Getafe, though, was the signing of Daniel Carvajal as a free agent; Jadon Sancho has also been linked with a move to the club.
- Getafe: Under 2.5 goals has landed in 9 of their last 10 La Liga home matches.
- Getafe: Under 2.5 goals has landed in all 4 of their La Liga home matches this season.
- Getafe: their opponents have scored under 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 La Liga home matches.
Probable line-up (5-4-1): David Soria, Kike Femenía, Djené Dakonam, Nemanja Gudelj, Abdel Abqar, Johan Mojica, Martín Satriano, Francho Serrano, Mario Martín, Ramón Terrats, Iván Azón.
Absentees: Zaid Romero and Christantus Uche (both injured); Enes Ünal and Orel Mangala (both doubtful).
Form and Line-up Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano drew 1:1 with Osasuna in the last round, with Sergio Camello equalising in the second half. Before that, they beat Espanyol 2:1, bouncing back from a 1:4 defeat to Real Madrid.
- Over 1.5 goals have been scored in all 7 of their La Liga matches this season.
- Rayo Vallecano have conceded in 13 consecutive matches.
- Rayo Vallecano have committed over 11.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 La Liga matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Emil Audero, Iván Balliu, Florian Lejeune, Mujaid Sadick, Adrià Pedrosa, Pedro Díaz, Pathé Ciss, Unai López, Jorge de Frutos, Sergio Camello, Álvaro García.
Absentees: Augusto Batalla and Andrei Rațiu (both injured).The teams' chances
On a margin-free basis, a Rayo Vallecano win is the most likely outcome, with a 35.5% probability, average odds of 2.70 and fair odds of 2.82. A Getafe win is rated at 32.5% (2.95; fair odds of 3.08), while a draw is rated at 32.0% (3.00; 3.13). The teams' chances look closely matched.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe win | 2.95 | 3.08 | 32.5% |
| Draw | 3.00 | 3.13 | 32.0% |
| Rayo Vallecano win | 2.70 | 2.82 | 35.5% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals at 1.50 is a much stronger favourite than Over 2.5 goals at 2.50. At the 2-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 2 at 1.85 and Over 2 at 1.90. Under 3.5 goals at 1.14 is considerably shorter than Over 3.5 goals at 4.70.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| 2 | 1.85 | 1.90 |
| 3.5 | 1.14 | 4.70 |
Handicap prediction
Getafe (-1.5) are available at 5.90 and Rayo Vallecano (-1.5) at 5.50. Getafe (+1.5) are at 1.10 and Rayo Vallecano (+1.5) at 1.08; at the 1-goal line, Getafe (+1) are at 1.14 and Rayo Vallecano (+1) at 1.12. At a handicap of 0, Rayo Vallecano (0) at 1.83 are shorter than Getafe (0) at 1.98.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.90 | -1.5 | 5.50 |
| 1.10 | 1.5 | 1.08 |
| 4.90 | -1 | 4.60 |
| 1.14 | 1 | 1.12 |
| 1.98 | 0 | 1.83 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — No at 1.67 is shorter than Both teams to score — Yes at 2.15, so the market considers it more likely that at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.15 |
| No | 1.67 |
Team goal totals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Getafe — 1 goal; Rayo Vallecano — 1 goal.
Getafe team goal total
For Getafe's team goal total, Over 0.5 at 1.50 is shorter than Under 0.5 at 2.55. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is 1.67 and Over 1 is 2.15; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is 1.30 compared with 3.20 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.55 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.67 | 1 | 2.15 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 3.20 |
Rayo Vallecano team goal total
For Rayo Vallecano's team goal total, Over 0.5 at 1.45 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 2.65. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is 1.80 and Over 1 is 1.95; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is 1.35 and Over 1.5 is 2.95.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 0.5 | 1.45 |
| 1.80 | 1 | 1.95 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 2.95 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jon González (Spain)
Matches — 27 (La Liga and Segunda División, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.4;
Matches with a red card — 6 of 27;
Matches with a penalty — 9 of 27.
