Odds overview
Malta are favourites to win at 1.48, with the draw at 4.15 and a Gibraltar win at around 7.80. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.67 is shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.20. Gibraltar (+1.5) at 1.55 is considerably shorter than Malta (-1.5) at 2.35 in the handicap market.
Why Malta are favourites
The bookmakers' odds make Malta clear favourites: the visitors are available at 1.48 to win. By comparison, Gibraltar are quoted at 7.80 and the draw at 4.15.
- Malta have been more consistent in attack: they have matched or exceeded their opponents' shot totals in each of their last five Nations League matches.
- Gibraltar are on a prolonged winless run, having failed to win any of their last 10 competitive matches across all competitions.
Form and Line-up Gibraltar
Gibraltar lost 0:2 away to Andorra on 13 November. Before that, they had beaten Liechtenstein (2:0) and drawn with Malta (1:1) in October.
Gibraltar have struggled with shots on target: they have had fewer than their opponents in each of their last 10 competitive matches across all competitions.
- Gibraltar have not won the corner count in any of their last 10 competitive matches across all competitions.
- Gibraltar's opponents have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 Nations League home matches.
Probable line-up: Dzhejlan Khenkins, Dan Bent, Louie Annesley, Bernardo Lopes, Julian Valarino, Kian Ronan, Nicholas Pozo, Carlos Richards, Tjay De Barr, James Scanlon, Dylan Borge.
Defender Ethan Jolley is doubtful because of a leg injury.
Form and Line-up Malta
Malta drew 1:1 with Eswatini in a friendly on 12 November. Head coach Emilio De Leo rotated his side, leaving several regular starters on the bench, including Henry Bonello, Joseph Mbong, Teddy Teuma, Ilyas Chouaref and Irvin Cardona. All of them came on during the match.
Malta previously beat Andorra 1:0 and Liechtenstein 2:0 in the Nations League — those wins meant they entered their final group match unbeaten in the competition.
- The total has not exceeded 3.5 goals in Malta's last 10 Nations League matches.
- More than 19.5 fouls have been recorded in 9 of Malta's last 10 competitive matches across all competitions.
Probable line-up: Henry Bonello, Ryan Camenzuli, Juan Carlos Corbalan, Kurt Shaw, Enrico Pepe, Brandon Paiber, Joseph Mbong, Teddy Teuma, Ilyas Chouaref, Irvin Cardona, Andrea Zammit.
Forward Alexander Satariano will miss the match through suspension after accumulating yellow cards. Defender Jean Borg was not included in the squad as he continues to recover from surgery.
The teams' chances
A Gibraltar win is available at 7.80, with fair odds of 8.15 and an implied probability of 12.3%. The draw is quoted at 4.15, with fair odds of 4.34 and a probability of 23.1%. Malta are offered at 1.48 to win, with fair odds of 1.55 and a probability of 64.7%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gibraltar to win | 7.80 | 8.15 | 12.3% |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.34 | 23.1% |
| Malta to win | 1.48 | 1.55 | 64.7% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is shorter at 1.67 than Over 2.5 at 2.20. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 is favoured at 1.63, compared with 2.20 for Under 2. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is available at 1.23, while Over 3.5 is 3.70.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.67 | 2.20 |
| 2 | 2.20 | 1.63 |
| 3.5 | 1.23 | 3.70 |
Handicap prediction
Malta (-1.5) are available at 2.35, while Gibraltar (+1.5) are at 1.55. At the -1 handicap line, Malta (-1) are offered at 1.78; at the +1 line, Gibraltar (+1) are 2.02. With a zero handicap, Gibraltar (0) are quoted at 5.00 and Malta (0) at 1.12.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2.35 | |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | |
| -1 | 1.78 | |
| 2.02 | 1 | |
| 5.00 | 0 | 1.12 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – No is quoted at 1.55 and appears more likely than Both teams to score – Yes at 2.35: at least one team is expected not to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.35 |
| No | 1.55 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
163/100
|
1/4
|
1/20
|
| William Hill |
81/50
|
1/4
|
2/25
|
| LeoVegas |
3/2
|
11/50
|
1/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Gibraltar — 0.5 goals; Malta — 1.5 goals.
Gibraltar team total goals
For Gibraltar, Under 0.5 goals is available at 1.75 and Over 0.5 at 2.03. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is quoted at 1.17, compared with 4.15 for Over 1. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is available at 1.09 and Over 1.5 at 5.60.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.75 | 0.5 | 2.03 |
| 1.17 | 1 | 4.15 |
| 1.09 | 1.5 | 5.60 |
Malta team total goals
For Malta, Over 0.5 goals at 1.12 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 5.10. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.25, compared with 3.60 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 is quoted at 1.78 and Under 1.5 at 1.98. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is offered at 1.50 and Over 2 at 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.10 | 0.5 | 1.12 |
| 3.60 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.98 | 1.5 | 1.78 |
| 1.50 | 2 | 2.50 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Balázs Berke (Hungary)
Matches — 8 (international fixtures, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.4;
Matches with a red card — 0 out of 8;
Matches with a penalty — 3 out of 8.
