Why Fenerbahce Are Favourites
Bookmakers see Fenerbahce as firm favourites: an away win is priced at 1.50 and their qualification for the next round at 1.05, whereas a Gornik victory is at 6.50 and their progress at 8.00. This advantage is due to several key factors.
Difference in quality and budget. Fenerbahce spent more than 80 million euros on reinforcements in the summer and have players of the calibre of Skriniar, Asensio and Fred in the squad. Gornik are a modest club with a budget several times smaller.
Looking back at the first leg. The deficit on the scoreboard will force the Poles to go forward — they will not be able to repeat the defensive game plan from the first match, in which they created almost nothing (0.06 xG). Gornik opening up will give Fenerbahce space for counter-attacks.
Quality attacking upgrade. The return of Asensio to the starting XI in the No.10 role should make the visitors’ attack sharper and more varied. Mason Greenwood is also gradually being integrated into the team.
European experience. Fenerbahce have huge experience of playing in European competition, whereas Gornik have very little. This affects psychological resilience in high-pressure matches.
Form and Line-up Gornik Zabrze
Gornik go into the second leg after a narrow defeat in Istanbul (1:0), where they spent almost the whole game defending and produced only 0.06 xG. At the weekend the Poles played a league match against Slask Wroclaw (2:1), using almost all of their first-choice players, which may affect freshness, although the team did have three days to recover. In the Polish Super Cup Gornik lost to Lech Poznan (1:3), having tried to play open football and paid the price.
Defender Michal Sacek, who missed the first match through injury, should return to action — he had done his job very well in previous games, winning 7 of 10 duels and recording 4 tackles and 3 interceptions.
Key numbers Gornik Zabrze:
Have scored in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches, but have also conceded in all of them.
Only their second campaign in European competition; the first time they failed to get through Europa League qualifying, losing to AS Trencin (0:1, 1:4).
Last year they finished second in the Polish league, although since 2018 they had not finished higher than sixth.
Probable Gornik Zabrze line-up (4-3-3): Philipp Schulze — Michal Sacek, Rafal Janicki, Josema, Erik Janza — Lukas Sadilek, Maximilian Dietz, Kacper Urbanski — Ivan Ikja Dimi, Erik Prekop, Maksym Khlan.
Absentees: Jaroslaw Kubicki (injury), Roberto Massimo, Kamil Lukoszek, Michal Synos (all not in the squad).
Form and Line-up Fenerbahce
Fenerbahce won the first match 1:0 thanks to a Talisca free-kick but did not make the most of their potential — they generated 1.61 xG without scoring from open play. In their friendlies the Turkish club have been prolific: 11 goals in 3 games, including a 4:0 thrashing of Pogon Szczecin, a mid-table side in the Polish league.
In the summer Fenerbahce spent more than 80 million euros on reinforcements (Greenwood, Muriqi, Cherif, Ake), but because of the number of foreign players Kante and Amrabat have been left out of the squad for this Champions League round. Nathan Ake, who made his debut in the starting XI, was substituted at half-time because of groin discomfort, but nothing now threatens his participation.
Key numbers Fenerbahce:
Have drawn only once in their last 7 matches, winning all the others.
Have conceded in 4 of their last 5 European matches.
Last season they finished second in the Turkish league, three points behind Galatasaray.
Probable Fenerbahce line-up (4-2-3-1): Mert Gunok — Nelson Semedo, Milan Skriniar, Nathan Ake, Jayden Oosterwolde — Fred, Matteo Guendouzi — Irfan Can Kahveci, Marco Asensio, Kerem Akturkoglu — Anderson Talisca.
Absentees: Dominik Livakovic, Nene, Vedat Muriqi (all injured), Adem Eselyurt, Cengiz Under, Amara Diouf, Mert Hakan Yandas, Emre Demir, Abdu Aziz Fall, N’Golo Kante, Sofyan Amrabat, Ognen Mimovic, Omar Fayed, Ijit Fidan, Rodrigo Becao, Diego Carlos, Irfan Can Egribayat, Ederson (all not in the squad).
Who Will Referee the Match
Lothar Dhondt (Belgium)
Matches – 9 (international fixtures, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per game – 24;
Average yellow cards per game (including second yellows) – 3.9;
Matches with a red card – 1 out of 9;
Matches with a penalty awarded – 4 out of 9.
