Odds overview
Monaco are clear favourites: Monaco to win is available at 1.55, compared with around 5.00 on Gornik to win and 4.60 on the draw. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.72, while Under 2.5 is 2.05. In the handicap markets, the lowest price is on Monaco (0) at 1.22, with Gornik (0) markedly higher at 3.60; Gornik (+1.5) at 1.53 is shorter than Monaco (-1.5) at 2.35.
Why Monaco are favourites for the match
The bookmakers view the visitors as favourites: Monaco to win can be backed at 1.55.
The Monegasques' attack have remained consistent, scoring in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Gornik's defence regularly make mistakes, allowing opponents to score at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Form and Line-up Gornik
Gornik's schedule had previously been adjusted because of their involvement in European qualifying, underlining the high priority of their international campaign. At home, the team try to play boldly: in 9 of their last 10 home matches, the Polish club were not beaten by their opponents for shots on target.
In attack, the hosts are restrained, scoring fewer than three goals in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions, and their matches rarely become extremely high-scoring — 8 of those 10 games produced no more than three goals.
Key numbers:
In 8 of Gornik's last 10 home matches in all competitions, the total number of shot attempts by both teams exceeded 25.5.
At least one goal was scored in 9 of Gornik's last 10 matches in all competitions.
In 9 of Gornik's last 10 matches in all competitions, there were no more than 3 offsides across the two teams.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Philipp Schulze — Michal Sacek — Josema — Rafal Janicki — Erik Janza — Maximilian Dietz — Paulo Bernardo — Kacper Urbanski — Maksym Khlan — Erik Prekop — Peter Federico
Form and Line-up Monaco
Monaco come into the first official match of the season under new head coach Filipe Luis, which creates uncertainty around the team's playing model.
Nevertheless, matches involving the Monegasques have been consistently high-scoring: Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Key numbers:
Monaco scored no more than two goals in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
In 9 of Monaco's last 10 home games, their opponents committed no more than 12 fouls.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Lukas Hradecky — Jordan Teze — Wout Faes — Thilo Kehrer — Christian Mawissa — Denis Zakaria — Lamine Camara — Simon Adingra — Maghnes Akliouche — Ansu Fati — Folarin Balogun
Team chances
The no-margin estimate gives Monaco to win a 60.7% probability, with an average price of 1.55 and a no-margin price of 1.65. The draw is rated at 20.5%, 4.60 and 4.89 respectively, while Gornik to win is 18.8%, 5.00 and 5.31.
Outcome | Average odds | Average no-margin odds | No-margin probability |
Gornik Zabrze to win | 5.00 | 5.31 | 18.8% |
Draw | 4.60 | 4.89 | 20.5% |
Monaco to win | 1.55 | 1.65 | 60.7% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.72, compared with 2.05 on Under 2.5. On the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 is preferable on price at 1.42, while Over 3.5 is rated at 2.65.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.05 | 1.72 |
3.5 | 1.42 | 2.65 |
Handicap prediction
Monaco (-1.5) is priced at 2.35, while Gornik (+1.5) is 1.53. On the 1-goal line, Monaco (-1) is available at 1.85, compared with 1.90 on Gornik (+1). Monaco Draw No Bet is markedly shorter at 1.22 than Gornik Draw No Bet at 3.60.
Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
— | -1.5 | 2.35 |
1.53 | 1.5 | — |
— | -1 | 1.85 |
1.90 | 1 | — |
3.60 | 0 | 1.22 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is rated at 1.80, while Both teams to score — No is 1.95. The higher price on the No option means at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.80 |
No | 1.95 |
Double chance prediction
X2 is the shortest double chance at 1.15, 12 is priced at 1.18, while 1X is markedly higher at 2.35.
1X | 12 | X2 |
2.35 | 1.18 | 1.15 |
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Gornik — 0.5 goals, Monaco — 2 goals.
Gornik Zabrze team total
Gorni: Over 0.5 is priced at 1.55, compared with 2.25 on Under 0.5. On the 1-goal line, Under 1 is shorter at 1.50, while Over 1 is 2.40; on 1.5, Under 1.5 is 1.25, compared with Over 1.5 at 3.60.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.25 | 0.5 | 1.55 |
1.50 | 1 | 2.40 |
1.25 | 1.5 | 3.60 |
Monaco team total
Monaco: Over 0.5 at 1.09 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 5.80. On the 1.5 line, Over 1.5 is 1.60, compared with 2.20 on Under 1.5; at 2, Under 2 is 1.65, compared with Over 2 at 2.10; at 2.5, Under 2.5 is 1.40, compared with Over 2.5 at 2.70.
Under | Team total | Over |
5.80 | 0.5 | 1.09 |
2.20 | 1.5 | 1.60 |
1.65 | 2 | 2.10 |
1.40 | 2.5 | 2.70 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Martin Matosa (Slovenia)
Matches – 8 (international matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match – 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 4.5;
Matches with red cards – 0 of 8;
Matches with penalties – 4 of 8.
