Greece will host Germany in Matchday 4 of the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League on 4 October 2026. The match will take place at the Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki.
We look at the bookmakers' odds and assess betting options for the upcoming match.
The hosts' disciplined defence and the visitors' personnel problems point towards a low-scoring outcome. The odds on Under 3 goals look justified given Greece's pragmatic approach in the UEFA Nations League.
Under Ivan Jovanovic, Greece reliably close down space. They have scored no more than two goals in 9 of their last 10 matches, while their opponents have stayed below three goals in 80% of those games. In their recent meeting in Augsburg, Greece shut Germany out perfectly to secure a shock 1:0 win.
Germany also defend dangerous areas well: their opponents have scored no more than two goals in 9 of their last 10 matches. However, serious injuries to Kai Havertz and Jamal Musiala have significantly weakened Germany's attack, depriving Klopp's side of creativity going forward.
The main risk comes from the overall goal tally in the visitors' matches at the start of the season, with at least two goals scored in 9 of their last 10 games. If the hosts concede an early goal from a set piece and are forced to open up, the slow, low-scoring pattern expected at Toumba Stadium could be disrupted.
Even so, both teams' defensive discipline should keep the match under control, making the under a worthwhile bet.
Prediction: Under 3 goals — 1.75
Clément Turpin (France)
Matches – 10 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Fouls per match – 24;
Yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) – 3.8;
Matches with a red card – 2 out of 10;
Matches with a penalty – 7 out of 10.
Greece
Netherlands
Germany
Greece
Serbia
Greece
Germany
Serbia
Germany
Greece
Netherlands
Germany
Germany
Greece
Greece
| # | Team |
|
|
|
|
Matches played
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
G
|
Points
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Greece
|
2:2 | -:- | -:- | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
3:1
|
6 | |
2 |
Netherlands
|
-:- | 1:1 | -:- | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
3:2
|
4 | |
3 |
Germany
|
0:1 | -:- | 2:0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
1:2
|
1 | |
4 |
Serbia
|
1:2 | 1:2 | -:- | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
2:4
|
0 |
| Bookie | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
 | |||
 | |||
 | |||
 | |||
 | |||
 |
