Odds overview
The Netherlands are favourites in the 1X2 market: a Netherlands win is available at 2.18, a Greece win at 3.25 and a draw at 3.55. In the totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.77 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.05. For the handicap (0), the Netherlands at 1.60 look more likely than Greece at 2.35.
Why the Netherlands are favourites
A Netherlands win is offered at 2.18, a draw at 3.55 and a Greece win at 3.25.
• The Netherlands are unbeaten in normal time in their last six matches across all competitions.
• The current Netherlands squad is valued at €750 million, compared with just €322 million for Greece.
• Both meetings in qualifying for UEFA Euro 2024 ended in wins to nil for the Netherlands (3:0 at home and 1:0 away).
Form and Line-up Greece
Greece made a successful start to their September fixtures, beating Serbia (2:1) and Germany (1:0). Dimitrios Kurmepelis scored the winner against Germany in the 74th minute. Ivan Jovanovic's side lead Group 2 of League A in the UEFA Nations League.
The statistics show that none of Greece's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches featured more than 3.5 goals, while their opponents took fewer than 12.5 shots in 9 of those 10 matches.
- Greece conceded fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Greece's opponents committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Greece's opponents were caught offside fewer than 1.5 times in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Greece line-up (4-2-3-1): Konstantinos Tzolakis, Georgios Vagiannidis, Konstantinos Mavropanos, Panagiotis Retsos, Kostas Tsimikas, Konstantinos Karetsas, Anastasios Androutsos, Christos Zafeiris, Christos Tzolis, Vangelis Pavlidis, Andrews Tetteh
Absentees: Giannis Konstantelias, Sotiris Kontouris (injured)
Form and Line-up Netherlands
The Netherlands have taken four points from a possible six at the start of the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League, but could have done better. They scored three goals in total against Germany (1:1) and Serbia (2:1) despite creating chances worth 5.92 xG. Their finishing was particularly disappointing against Germany (3.18 xG).
- The Netherlands' opponents took fewer than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- More than 2.5 offsides were recorded in 9 of the Netherlands' last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- The Netherlands committed fewer than 11.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
In 9 of the Netherlands' last 10 away matches, their opponents scored fewer than 1.5 goals and took fewer than 13.5 shots.
Probable Netherlands line-up (4-3-3): Bart Verbruggen, Denzel Dumfries, Jan Paul van Hecke, Virgil van Dijk, Micky van de Ven, Ryan Gravenberch, Joey Veerman, Tijjani Reijnders, Crysencio Summerville, Mexx Meerdink, Ruben van Bommel
Absentees: Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen, Frenkie de Jong (injured), Brian Brobbey (doubtful)
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Greece a 29.4% chance of winning, with average odds of 3.25 and fair odds of 3.41. A draw has a 26.9% chance, with average odds of 3.55 and fair odds of 3.72. The Netherlands lead on 43.8%, with average odds of 2.18 and fair odds of 2.28.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greece to win | 3.25 | 3.41 | 29.4% |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.72 | 26.9% |
| Netherlands to win | 2.18 | 2.28 | 43.8% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 has shorter odds than Under 2.5 goals at 2.12. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.40 is favoured over Over 3.5 goals at 2.80.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.12 | 1.72 |
| 3.5 | 1.40 | 2.80 |
Handicap betting
Greece (-1.5) at 5.90 are rated lower than the Netherlands (-1.5) at 3.60. At +1.5, the Netherlands have the shortest odds at 1.08, compared with 1.25 for Greece. The Netherlands (-1) at 2.95 are favoured over Greece (-1) at 5.10, while at +1 the Netherlands' odds of 1.11 are shorter than Greece's 1.35. With a handicap of 0, the Netherlands at 1.62 have shorter odds than Greece at 2.30.
| Home team | Handicap | Away team |
|---|---|---|
| 5.90 | -1.5 | 3.60 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 1.08 |
| 5.10 | -1 | 2.95 |
| 1.35 | 1 | 1.11 |
| 2.30 | 0 | 1.62 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.60 looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.30; the latter means at least one team would fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.30 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
67/100
|
29/100
|
33/100
|
| William Hill |
7/10
|
3/10
|
3/10
|
| 888sport |
7/10
|
3/10
|
3/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Greece — 1 goal; the Netherlands — 1.5 goals.
Greece team total goals
Greece team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.30 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 3.25; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 at 1.62 is favoured over Under 1 at 2.20. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 has shorter odds at 1.55, compared with 2.40 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.25 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.20 | 1 | 1.62 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Netherlands team total goals
Netherlands team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.16 has much shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 4.40, while Over 1 is available at 1.33 compared with 3.05 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are close: Under 1.5 is 1.82 and Over 1.5 is 1.93. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.38 is favoured over Over 2 at 2.80.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.40 | 0.5 | 1.16 |
| 3.05 | 1 | 1.33 |
| 1.82 | 1.5 | 1.93 |
| 1.38 | 2 | 2.80 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Marco Guida (Italy)
Matches — 12 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 2.8;
Matches with a red card — 0 of 12;
Matches with a penalty — 3 of 12.
