Odds overview
Ajax are clear favourites: an Ajax win is available at 1.52, compared with 4.70 for a draw and 5.70 for a Hajduk win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. The visitors also have the advantage in the zero-handicap market: Ajax Draw No Bet is 1.20, against 4.20 for Hajduk Draw No Bet.
Why Ajax are favourites
Bookmakers favour the Amsterdam club: an Ajax win is offered at 1.52 (an implied probability of around 62.9% after removing the margin), while a draw is available at 4.70 and a Hajduk win at 5.70.
- European consistency: Ajax have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- The Croatian club's away record: Hajduk have failed to win 9 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Conference League.
Form and Line-up Hajduk
The Croatian club begin their European campaign after a 2:1 win over Dinamo Zagreb. Their earlier match against the Zagreb club was interrupted because the pitch was waterlogged, but Hajduk coped with the difficult conditions and showed character.
Hajduk defend tightly at home: in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Conference League, their opponents had fewer than 4.5 shots on target and attempted fewer than 11.5 shots.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Hajduk's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Hajduk scored at least once in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Hajduk's opponents scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Conference League.
Probable Hajduk line-up (4-2-3-1): Toni Silic, Fran Karačić, Dario Maresic, Ron Raci, Simun Hrgovic, Khalil Fayad, Adrion Pajaziti, Abdoulie Sanyang, Marin Soticek, Michele Sego, Dalisson de Almeida
Form and Line-up Ajax
Before travelling to Croatia, Ajax drew 1:1 with NEC in the league. Head coach Míchel stressed the team's intention to press and control the game, although dangerous situations regularly arise in front of Maarten Paes's goal.
Ajax maintain a high attacking tempo in European competition: the two teams combined for more than 7.5 shots on target in 9 of the Dutch club's last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- There were over 3.5 goals in 9 of Ajax's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- More than 3.5 goals were scored in 8 of Ajax's last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- Ajax's last 6 UEFA Conference League matches have all had over 2.5 goals.
Probable Ajax line-up (4-2-3-1): Maarten Paes, Lucas Rosa, Aaron Bouwman, Thilo Kehrer, Owen Wijndal, Jorthy Mokio, Davy Klaassen, Julian Brandt, Oscar Gloukh, Oliver Edvardsen, Tolu Arokodare
The teams' chances
A Hajduk win is offered at 5.70, with fair odds of 5.96 and a probability of 16.8%. The draw is available at 4.70, with fair odds of 4.92 and a probability of 20.3%. An Ajax win at 1.52 corresponds to fair odds of 1.59 and a probability of 62.9%.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hajduk Split win | 5.70 | 5.96 | 16.8% |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.92 | 20.3% |
| Ajax win | 1.52 | 1.59 | 62.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 has considerably shorter odds than Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. At 3.5 goals, the order is reversed: Under 3.5 goals is 1.60 and Over 3.5 goals is 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.57 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
Handicap prediction
Ajax (-1.5) are offered at 2.30, while Hajduk (+1.5) are 1.60. At the one-goal line, Ajax (-1) are available at 1.80 and Hajduk (+1) at 2.00. The zero-handicap market strongly favours the visitors: Ajax (0) are 1.20, compared with 4.20 for Hajduk (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2.30 | |
| 1.60 | 1.5 | |
| -1 | 1.80 | |
| 2.00 | 1 | |
| 4.20 | 0 | 1.20 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes at 1.67 looks more likely than Both teams to score – No at 2.15; the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.67 |
| No | 2.15 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/1
|
11/50
|
11/50
|
| William Hill |
11/10
|
11/50
|
11/50
|
| 888sport |
1/1
|
11/50
|
11/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Hajduk Split — 1 goal; Ajax — 2 goals.
Hajduk Split team goals
Hajduk Split team goals: Over 0.5 goals is 1.53, compared with 2.45 for Under 0.5 goals. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is 1.63 and Over 1 goal is 2.20; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals is 1.30 and Over 1.5 goals is 3.30.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.45 | 0.5 | 1.53 |
| 1.63 | 1 | 2.20 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 3.30 |
Ajax team goals
Ajax team goals: Over 0.5 goals at 1.04 is strongly favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 7.60. Over 1.5 goals is 1.50, compared with 2.45 for Under 1.5 goals; at the 2-goal line, the odds are almost equal — Under 2 goals is 1.87 and Over 2 goals is 1.88. At 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 goals is 1.50 and Over 2.5 goals is 2.50.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.60 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.45 | 1.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.87 | 2 | 1.88 |
| 1.50 | 2.5 | 2.50 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Christian-Petru Ciochirca (Austria)
Matches — 9 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 20;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) — 4.1;
Matches with a red card — 0 of 9;
Matches with a penalty — 1 of 9.
