Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Mainz are favourites: the away win is available at 2.30, compared with 3.00 for the home win and 3.60 for the draw. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.10. In the Draw No Bet market, Mainz at 1.70 is shorter than Hamburg at 2.15.
Why Mainz are favourites for the match
Bookmakers favour the visitors: a Mainz win is available at 2.30, Hamburg are offered at 3.00, and the draw is 3.60.
In the opening round, Mainz defended reliably and did not allow Paderborn a single shot on target.
Hamburg began the season with a defeat in Dortmund, conceding both goals before half-time and looking passive in the first half.
After the first round, Mainz are tenth with one point, while Hamburg are 14th without a point.
Form and Line-up Hamburg
In their opening league match, Hamburg lost 0:2 to Borussia Dortmund. The match highlighted the team's creative problems: Hamburg failed to score, while their improvement in the second half, including Patson Daka hitting the post, partly coincided with them having a numerical advantage.
The home side's low attacking output is also supported by results from previous matches: in 8 of their last 10 Bundesliga home games, the combined number of shots by both teams did not exceed 27.
Key numbers:
Hamburg have had no more than 5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches
In 8 of their last 10 home matches, Hamburg have committed at least 11 fouls.
In 9 of Hamburg's last 10 home matches, there have been no more than 4 offsides.
Probable Hamburg line-up (3-4-2-1): Daniel Heuer Fernandes — Nicolas Capaldo — Sebastian Bornauw — Jordan Torunarigha — Bakery Jatta — Albert Sambi Lokonga — Nicolai Remberg — Louis Lemke — Marten Adelin — Albert Gronbaek — Patson Daka.
Form and Line-up Mainz
Mainz 05 began their Bundesliga campaign with a 0:0 draw against Paderborn. The team had the initiative and registered 21 shots but failed to score, which is entirely in keeping with Urs Fischer's pre-season approach of prioritising discipline and compactness over attacking freedom.
The disciplined and restrained nature of their away matches is also confirmed by the foul statistics: in 9 of their last 10 league away games, Mainz 05's opponents committed no more than 11 fouls.
Key numbers:
In 8 of their last 10 Bundesliga matches, Mainz's opponents have scored no more than 1 goal.
In 8 of Mainz 05's last 10 away matches, the total did not go over 3 goals.
Mainz have not won the corners count in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga away matches.
Probable Mainz line-up (3-1-4-2): Robin Zentner — Danny da Costa — Fabio Gruber — Kacper Potulski — Kaishu Sano — Anthony Caci — Jae-sung Lee — Nadiem Amiri — Phillipp Mwene — Sheraldo Becker — Phillip Tietz.
Team chances
Mainz to win has a fair probability of 41.6%, with average odds of 2.30 and fair odds of 2.41. The figures for Hamburg to win are 31.9%, 3.00 and 3.14, while the draw is 26.6%, 3.60 and 3.77.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
Hamburg to win | 3.00 | 3.14 | 31.9% |
Draw | 3.60 | 3.77 | 26.6% |
Mainz to win | 2.30 | 2.41 | 41.6% |
Total goals prediction
On the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.10. On the 3.5-goal line, by contrast, Under 3.5 goals at 1.45 is clearly favoured over Over 3.5 goals at 2.65.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.10 | 1.75 |
3.5 | 1.45 | 2.65 |
Handicap prediction
Mainz (-1.5) at 4.15 is shorter than Hamburg (-1.5) at 4.90. On the 1.5 line, the difference is minimal: Mainz (+1.5) — 1.12, Hamburg (+1.5) — 1.17. Mainz (-1) at 3.45 is shorter than Hamburg (-1) at 4.30, while Mainz (+1) at 1.16 is shorter than Hamburg (+1) at 1.27. In the Draw No Bet market, Mainz at 1.70 is favoured over Hamburg at 2.15.
Home | Handicap | Away |
4.90 | -1.5 | 4.15 |
1.17 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
4.30 | -1 | 3.45 |
1.27 | 1 | 1.16 |
2.15 | 0 | 1.70 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.60 looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.30: the latter option means that at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.60 |
No | 2.30 |
Double chance prediction
The shortest odds are for 12 — 1.32; X2 is available at 1.42, while 1X is 1.63.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.63 | 1.32 | 1.42 |
Team total prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Hamburg — 1.5 goals, Mainz — 1.5 goals.
Hamburg team total
Hamburg team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.27 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.40; on the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal at 1.55 is favoured over Under 1 goal at 2.35. On the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is shorter at 1.57, compared with 2.35 for Over 1.5 goals, while on the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals at 1.20 is favoured over Over 2 goals at 3.90.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.40 | 0.5 | 1.27 |
2.35 | 1 | 1.55 |
1.57 | 1.5 | 2.35 |
1.20 | 2 | 3.90 |
Mainz team total
Mainz team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.18 is substantially shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 4.10; Over 1 goal at 1.35 is shorter than Under 1 goal at 2.90. On the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals at 1.75 has a slight advantage over Over 1.5 goals at 2.00, while on the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals at 1.30 is favoured over Over 2 goals at 3.25.
Under | Team total | Over |
4.10 | 0.5 | 1.18 |
2.90 | 1 | 1.35 |
1.75 | 1.5 | 2.00 |
1.30 | 2 | 3.25 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Tobias Reichel (Germany)
Matches — 10 (Bundesliga, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 20;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.7;
Matches with red cards — 2 out of 10;
Matches with penalties — 3 out of 10.
