Betting Tip
Hammarby IF go into this European tie in good shape. The team are second in the Allsvenskan and have won three matches in a row under Henrik Rydstrom, the last two without conceding. There are nuances. The current coach has been at the club for less than a month, and the winning run has come against IF Elfsborg, Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF — opponents who are not of European calibre. Before the change of coach, Hammarby IF lost four of five games, and that instability has not gone away.
RSC Anderlecht have not played a competitive match since May, and bookmakers are factoring that lay-off into the prices: the visitors are 2.80 against 2.25 for the hosts. The break is an argument against the Belgians, but the friendlies showed that the team are physically ready: they beat AZ Alkmaar (1:0) and NEC Nijmegen (3:2). RSC Anderlecht's squad are more expensive and deeper, they have more experience in qualifying rounds, and in the spring the club reached the Belgian Cup final. The level of pressure on Hammarby IF's defence will be higher than usual: averaging one goal conceded per game in the Swedish league says little in relation to a European tie.
Visitors usually approach the first match of a two-legged tie pragmatically: avoid defeat in Stockholm and take the question of qualification to Brussels. RSC Anderlecht handicap (0) provides cover against a draw, the probability of which the market estimates at almost 30%. Odds of around 2.05 with that cover look inflated relative to the real difference in class — that is the argument for the bet.