Prediction for Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Vikingur Reykjavik
Vikingur travel to Be'er Sheva as a side for whom avoiding defeat is enough. That changes everything. The Icelanders have already been through this scenario a month earlier: they beat Gyor at home, then calmly drew 2:2 in Hungary and went through. They know how to see these ties out.
At the same time, the visitors will not simply freeze in front of their own goal. Solvi Geir Ottesen’s team have won 14 of 16 rounds of the Icelandic league and pulled eight points clear of the chasing pack. They have only two defeats in their last 27 matches, and in 22 of those the Icelanders have scored at least twice. Gylfi Sigurdsson conducts play from deep, while Nikolaj Hansen scored twice in the first leg. Vikingur will take their chances away from home as well.
Now for the hosts. Hapoel won the Israeli championship but have had a dreadful summer. Four defeats in a row in official matches, a heavy Super Cup loss to Maccabi Tel Aviv (1:3), and most importantly Ran Kozuch’s team concede at least two goals in each of their last eight games. The defence creaks against any opponent.
There is another side to it. In those same eight matches Hapoel scored every time. So both sides should get on the scoresheet, and that is exactly the fork in the road where a draw becomes a live outcome.
Only one thing may give pause: the hosts have to chase the game, and the market makes them favourites. Yet in Reykjavik the Israelis managed five shots, two on target, against 13 from their opponents. A team without cohesion, without a league campaign already under way and without Kings Kangwa, who is playing out his final days before a move to Panathinaikos, does not suddenly become a potential winner. Joao Victor is injured and there is no depth in the squad.
Hapoel will pour forward, Vikingur will catch them on the counter, and by the closing stages the visitors will be perfectly happy with a level score. We are backing the draw.