Odds Overview
Atalanta are clear favourites: Atalanta to win is priced at 1.58, while the draw is available at 4.05 and Hapoel Tel-Aviv to win at 5.30. On the main total, Over 2.5 goals is priced at around 1.70 versus 2.07 for Under 2.5 goals. In the handicap market, Atalanta Draw No Bet at 1.20 looks much more favoured than Hapoel Tel-Aviv Draw No Bet at 3.75.
Why Atalanta Are Favourites
Atalanta to win is priced at 1.58, the draw at 4.05 and Hapoel Tel-Aviv to win at 5.30. The arguments in favour of that picture are:
- Difference in class. Atalanta are a Serie A team with higher-quality players.
- Neutral stadium. Hapoel Tel-Aviv lose the familiar backing of their home crowd in Tel Aviv.
- European experience. Atalanta regularly play in European competition, while Hapoel Tel-Aviv have returned to the international stage after a 12-year absence.
- Hapoel Tel-Aviv's defence. In 9 of their last 10 home matches, opponents have not scored more than one goal — that limits the visitors' attack.
Form and Line-up Hapoel Tel-Aviv
In the first leg of the play-off round, Hapoel Tel-Aviv drew 0:0 with Atalanta in Bergamo. Before that, the team came through two UEFA Conference League qualifying rounds, getting past Ludogorets (2:0, 2:2) and GKS Katowice (2:0, 1:2).
Key numbers:
- Hapoel Tel-Aviv scored first in 5 of their last 7 matches.
- Fewer than 10 corners were taken in 5 matches in a row.
- The Israeli side scored at least twice in 5 of their previous 7 games.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Assaf Tzur — Marcus Coco, Fernand Mayembo, Chico, Doron Leidner — Falcao, Andrian Kraev — Douglas Owusu, Roey Alkoukin, Omri Altman — Emmanuel Boateng.
Absentees: —.
Form and Line-up Atalanta
For Atalanta under Maurizio Sarri, the meeting in Bergamo was their first official match of the season and ended goalless (0:0). Three days later, the team began their Serie A campaign with a 2:1 win over Sassuolo.
Key numbers:
- Atalanta are unbeaten in 4 matches in a row.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of their previous 7 matches.
- Fewer than 4 yellow cards were shown in 9 games in a row.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Marco Carnesecchi — Raoul Bellanova, Odilon Kossounou, Thomas Kristensen, Lorenzo Bernasconi — Lazar Samardzic, Gianluca Gaetano, Ederson — Nicola Zalewski, Gianluca Scamacca, Giacomo Raspadori.
Absentees: Honest Ahanor, Isak Hien, Kamaldeen Sulemana (all injured), Giorgio Scalvini (doubtful).
Team Chances
Atalanta to win is 1.58, with a no-margin price of 1.69 and a probability of 59.2%; Hapoel Tel-Aviv to win is 5.30, with a no-margin price of 5.66 and 17.7%. The draw is priced at 4.05, with a no-margin price of 4.33 and a probability of 23.1%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average no-margin odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Tel-Aviv to win | 5.30 | 5.66 | 17.7% |
| Draw | 4.05 | 4.33 | 23.1% |
| Atalanta to win | 1.58 | 1.69 | 59.2% |
Total Goals Prediction
On the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 is preferred to Under 2.5 goals at 2.07. On the 3.5 line, the ratio is reversed: Under 3.5 goals is 1.45 and Over 3.5 goals is 2.60.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.07 | 1.70 |
| 3.5 | 1.45 | 2.60 |
Handicap Prediction
Atalanta (-1.5) is offered at 2.45, while Hapoel Tel-Aviv (+1.5) is 1.50. For the 1-goal line, the odds are 1.95 on Atalanta (-1) and 1.80 on Hapoel Tel-Aviv (+1). On the Draw No Bet market, Atalanta (0) at 1.20 is rated noticeably higher than Hapoel Tel-Aviv (0) at 3.75.
| Home team | Handicap | Away team |
|---|---|---|
| — | -1.5 | 2.45 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | — |
| — | -1 | 1.95 |
| 1.80 | 1 | — |
| 3.75 | 0 | 1.20 |
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is 1.75 and is rated higher than Both teams to score - No at 2.00; the second option means that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.75 |
| No | 2.00 |
Double Chance Prediction
The shortest double chance price is X2 at 1.14; 12 is 1.22, while 1X is 2.30.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
13/10
|
11/50
|
7/50
|
Team Total Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Hapoel Tel-Aviv — 0.5 goals, Atalanta — 1.5 goals.
Hapoel Tel-Aviv Team Total
Hapoel Tel-Aviv: on the 0.5 line, Over 0.5 goals is 1.53 versus 2.35 on Under 0.5 goals. On the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.53 is preferred to Over 1 goal at 2.35, while on 1.5 it is Under 1.5 goals at 1.25 versus Over 1.5 goals at 3.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.35 | 0.5 | 1.53 |
| 1.53 | 1 | 2.35 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.55 |
Atalanta Team Total
Atalanta: Over 0.5 goals is 1.08 versus 6.00 on Under 0.5 goals, while Over 1 goal is 1.17 versus 4.30 on Under 1 goal. On the 1.5 line, Over 1.5 goals is 1.65 and Under 1.5 goals is 2.10; on the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals at 1.64 is slightly preferred to Over 2 goals at 2.13.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.00 | 0.5 | 1.08 |
| 4.30 | 1 | 1.17 |
| 2.10 | 1.5 | 1.65 |
| 1.64 | 2 | 2.13 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Daniel Schlager (Germany)
Matches – 6 (international fixtures, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match – 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 5;
Matches with red cards – 2 of 6;
Matches with penalties – 0 of 6.
