Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Bayer are slight favourites at 2.30: Hoffenheim are available at around 2.75 and the draw at 3.95. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.40, compared with 2.75 for Under 2.5. For the handicap (0), Bayer at 1.75 look preferable to Hoffenheim at 2.07.
Why Bayer are favourites
In the 1X2 market, Bayer are available at 2.30 to win, compared with 2.75 for Hoffenheim and 3.95 for the draw.
- The visitors have been prolific at the start of the season: Bayer rank second in the Bundesliga for goals scored, averaging 2.67 per match.
- Bayer's forwards are combining well: in the recent win over Freiburg, Ibrahim Maza and Patrick Schick assisted each other for both goals.
Form and Line-up Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim have been inconsistent this autumn: they battled to a 2:1 away win over Borussia Mönchengladbach in the Bundesliga but lost 2:3 at home to Beşiktaş in the UEFA Europa League. Nevertheless, the Sinsheim side remain highly active in attack, averaging 17.83 shots per match — the third-highest figure in the league.
- Hoffenheim have held their opponents to under 5.5 shots on target in each of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
- Hoffenheim have attempted more than 14.5 shots, including blocked efforts, in 9 of their last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
- There have been over 2.5 offsides in 9 of Hoffenheim's last 10 home Bundesliga matches.
Probable Hoffenheim line-up (4-3-3): Oliver Baumann, Vladimír Coufal, Robin Hranac, Koki Machida, Mats Rots, Leon Avdullahu, Alexander Prass, Bambasé Conté, Adam Hložek, Fisnik Asllani, Tim Lemperle
Form and Line-up Bayer
Bayer have looked confident in attack across competitions: they recorded a convincing 4:0 away win over Lech in the UEFA Europa League. In the Bundesliga, Bayer make active use of the flanks, averaging 7.33 corners per match — the second-highest figure in the league.
- Bayer have been caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in each of their last 10 away Bundesliga matches.
- There have been under 10.5 corners in 8 of Bayer's last 10 away Bundesliga matches.
- Bayer have scored at least two goals in 8 of their last 10 Bundesliga matches.
Probable Bayer line-up (4-2-3-1): Mark Flekken, Jarell Quansah, Facundo Medina, Edmond Tapsoba, Miguel Gutiérrez, Ezequiel Fernández, Aleix García, Moussa Diaby, Ibrahim Maza, Afonso Moreira, Patrick Schick
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Bayer a 41.3% chance of winning, with odds of 2.30 and fair odds of 2.42. Hoffenheim have a 34.6% chance (2.75; 2.89), while the draw has a 24.1% chance (3.95; 4.15).
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim to win | 2.75 | 2.89 | 34.6% |
| Draw | 3.95 | 4.15 | 24.1% |
| Bayer to win | 2.30 | 2.42 | 41.3% |
Total goals analysis
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 is much shorter at 1.40 than Under 2.5 at 2.75. At 3.5 goals, the odds are almost level: Under 3.5 is 1.85 and Over 3.5 is 1.97.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.75 | 1.40 |
| 3.5 | 1.85 | 1.97 |
Handicap analysis
Hoffenheim (-1.5) are available at 4.50 and Bayer (-1.5) at 3.45. The odds are lower for the +1.5 handicap: Hoffenheim (+1.5) are 1.25 and Bayer (+1.5) are 1.15. At -1, Bayer (-1) are shorter at 2.95 than Hoffenheim (-1) at 4.00; at +1, Bayer (+1) are 1.20 compared with 1.35 for Hoffenheim (+1). For the handicap (0), Bayer are 1.75 and Hoffenheim are 2.07.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.50 | -1.5 | 3.45 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 1.15 |
| 4.00 | -1 | 2.95 |
| 1.35 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 2.07 | 0 | 1.75 |
Both teams to score analysis
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.37, while No is 2.85; the shorter odds suggest that both teams are expected to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.37 |
| No | 2.85 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
57/100
|
1/4
|
2/5
|
| 888sport |
61/100
|
11/50
|
11/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals analysis
Bookmakers have set the following team total goals lines for this match: Hoffenheim — 1.5 goals; Bayer — 1.5 goals.
Hoffenheim team total goals
Hoffenheim team total goals: Over 0.5 is available at 1.17, compared with 4.30 for Under 0.5; Over 1 is 1.35 and Under 1 is 2.95. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are close: Under 1.5 is 1.80 and Over 1.5 is 1.95. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is shorter at 1.35 than Over 2 at 2.95.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.30 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 2.95 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.80 | 1.5 | 1.95 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 2.95 |
Bayer team total goals
Bayer team total goals: Over 0.5 is available at 1.12 and Under 0.5 at 4.90; Over 1 is 1.28, compared with 3.30 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 is 1.75 and Under 1.5 is 2.00. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is available at 1.57 and Over 2 at 2.35.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.90 | 0.5 | 1.12 |
| 3.30 | 1 | 1.28 |
| 2.00 | 1.5 | 1.75 |
| 1.57 | 2 | 2.35 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Daniel Siebert (Germany)
Matches — 19 (Bundesliga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 21;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.2;
Matches with a red card — 2 of 19;
Matches with a penalty — 7 of 19.
