Iceland vs Bulgaria: prediction & betting odds 3 October 2026

Betting tip

After the win over Luxembourg, it is tempting to expect another emphatic victory from Iceland. I would be cautious: they have scored no more than two goals in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions. That is why I am backing Iceland to score under 2 goals. None or one would win the bet, exactly two would mean a refund, and three would lose it.

Iceland opened their UEFA Nations League campaign with a 1:1 home draw against Estonia, then won 3:0 in Luxembourg. That was a good result, no question. But one successful away trip is not enough to expect three goals in every round. The Estonia match cannot be ignored either: Iceland managed just one goal at home against another side from the same group.

I expect Bulgaria to play cautiously, though I would not hold them up as a model of defensive strength. They began the tournament with a 1:2 defeat to Luxembourg, then drew 0:0 with Estonia. Under 4.5 goals landed in 8 of their last 10 matches, while their opponents scored in 8 of 10. An Iceland goal looks entirely possible here. I expect the visitors to avoid a heavy defeat, but those runs are not enough to promise it.

I do not expect a completely cagey match either. There have been at least two goals between the teams in 9 of Iceland's last 10 matches, which does not in itself hurt our bet. An early goal for the hosts is a bigger danger: if Bulgaria have to push forward, Iceland will have space for further attacks. That is when a third goal would stop looking like a remote threat.

Still, I favour a scenario in which Iceland score but fall short of three goals. The main argument is their own scoring record, rather than any supposed impenetrability in Bulgaria's defence. The refund at two goals is useful here: even a 2:0 home win would return the stake. Our prediction is Iceland under 2 team goals.