Odds overview
Iceland are clear favourites: a home win is available at around 1.30, while the draw is 5.50 and an Estonia win is 10.50. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. Iceland (-1.5) at 1.85 is slightly shorter than Estonia (+1.5) at 1.95; Iceland (-1) is around 1.40 versus 2.70 for Estonia (+1), while Iceland Draw No Bet is 1.06 and Estonia Draw No Bet is 6.70.
Why Iceland are the favourites
Bookmakers consider Iceland clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.30, the draw at 5.50 and an Estonia win at 10.50.
• Iceland are playing at home, where they have shown uncompromising football in the Nations League: the team have gone five consecutive matches without a draw.
• Estonia are noticeably inferior in quality and have scored more than one goal in a match only once across their last 10 games in all competitions.
Form and Line-up Iceland
In their most recent friendly, Iceland suffered a heavy 0:3 defeat to Argentina.
However, Iceland regularly play with great aggression at home, committing 11 or more fouls in 8 of their last 10 matches.
- In 8 of Iceland's last 10 home matches in all competitions, there have been no more than 10 corners.
- Iceland have taken no more than five corners in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Iceland's opponents have committed at least 11 fouls in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable Iceland line-up (4-3-3): Elias-Rabn Olafsson, Guðlaugur Victor Pálsson, Logi Tómasson, Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson, Hákon Arnar Haraldsson, Albert Guðmundsson, Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson, Mikael Ellertsson, Brynjólfur Willumsson, Andri Gudjohnsen, Hordur Magnusson
Absentees: Kristian Hlynsson, Sævar Magnússon (injured), Andri Fannar Baldursson (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Estonia
Estonia came into the tournament after beating Lithuania 1:0 in the Baltic Cup final, where substitute Karel Mustmaa scored the only goal in the 80th minute.
Estonia have shown admirable consistency in attack, scoring at least once in 7 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Fewer than 2.5 goals have been scored in the first half of each of Estonia's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable Estonia line-up (4-2-3-1): Karl Hein, Rasmus Peetson, Märten Kuusk, Karol Mets, Michael Schjönning-Larsen, Robi Saarma, Markus Soomets, Kevor Palumets, Mattias Käit, Martin Miller, Alex Tamm
Absentees: Vlasiy Sinyavskiy (injured)
Team chances
The no-margin assessment gives Iceland a 73.5% chance of winning: the average odds are 1.30 and the fair odds are 1.36. The corresponding figures for the draw are 17.4%, 5.50 and 5.75, while Estonia have a 9.1% chance of winning, with odds of 10.50 and fair odds of 10.99.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland win | 1.30 | 1.36 | 73.5% |
| Draw | 5.50 | 5.75 | 17.4% |
| Estonia win | 10.50 | 10.99 | 9.1% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. At the 3.5-goal line, by contrast, Under 3.5 goals at 1.48 is clearly favoured over Over 3.5 goals at 2.55.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.20 | 1.68 |
| 3.5 | 1.48 | 2.55 |
Handicap prediction
Iceland (-1.5) is available at 1.85, while Estonia (+1.5) is 1.95. At the next lines, Iceland (-1) is 1.40 versus 2.70 for Estonia (+1); Iceland Draw No Bet at 1.06 is substantially shorter than Estonia Draw No Bet at 6.70.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.85 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.95 | |
| 1.40 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.70 | |
| 1.06 | 0 | 6.70 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - No at 1.68 is shorter than Both teams to score - Yes at 2.13, meaning the scenario in which at least one team does not score is rated more highly.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.13 |
| No | 1.68 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
3/100
|
7/50
|
5/2
|
| William Hill |
1/20
|
3/20
|
5/2
|
| 888sport |
1/20
|
3/20
|
5/2
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Iceland — 2 goals, Estonia — 0.5 goals.
Iceland team total
Iceland team total: Over 1.5 goals at 1.40 is shorter than Under 1.5 goals at 2.70; Over 2 goals is 1.70 versus 2.08 for Under 2 goals. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.60 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.30.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.70 | 1.5 | 1.40 |
| 2.08 | 2 | 1.70 |
| 1.60 | 2.5 | 2.30 |
Estonia team total
Estonia team total: at the 0.5-goal line, Under 0.5 goals at 1.75 is shorter than Over 0.5 goals at 2.05. Under 1 goal at 1.20 is clearly favoured over Over 1 goal at 4.20, while Under 1.5 goals at 1.09 is favoured over Over 1.5 goals at 5.60.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.75 | 0.5 | 2.05 |
| 1.20 | 1 | 4.20 |
| 1.09 | 1.5 | 5.60 |
