Iceland vs Estonia: prediction & betting odds 26 September 2026

Odds overview

Iceland are clear favourites: a home win is available at around 1.30, compared with 5.50 for a draw and 10.50 for an Estonia win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 has shorter odds than Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. Iceland (-1.5) at 1.85 are slightly shorter than Estonia (+1.5) at 1.95; Iceland (-1) are around 1.40 against 2.70 for Estonia (+1), while Iceland (0) are 1.06 and Estonia (0) 6.70.

Why Iceland are favourites

Bookmakers make Iceland clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.30, a draw at 5.50 and an Estonia win at 10.50.

• Iceland are at home, where they have played decisive football in the Nations League, going five consecutive matches without a draw.

• Estonia are considerably weaker and have scored more than once in just one of their last 10 matches across all competitions.

Form and Line-up Iceland

Iceland suffered a heavy 0:3 defeat to Argentina in their most recent friendly.

At home, however, Iceland regularly play aggressively, committing at least 11 fouls in eight of their last 10 matches.

• No more than 10 corners were taken in eight of Iceland's last 10 home matches across all competitions.
• Iceland took no more than five corners in eight of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
• Iceland's opponents committed at least 11 fouls in eight of their last 10 matches across all competitions.

Probable Iceland line-up (4-3-3): Elias Olafsson, Victor Pálsson, Logi Tómasson, Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson, Hákon Arnar Haraldsson, Albert Guðmundsson, Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson, Mikael Ellertsson, Brynjólfur Willumsson, Andri Gudjohnsen, Hordur Magnusson

Unavailable: Kristian Hlynsson, Sævar Magnússon (injured); Andri Fannar Baldursson (doubtful)

Form and Line-up Estonia

Estonia entered the tournament after a 1:0 win over Lithuania in the Baltic Cup final, with substitute Karel Mustmaa scoring the only goal in the 80th minute.

Estonia have been notably consistent in attack, scoring at least once in seven of their last 10 matches across all competitions.

• Fewer than 2.5 first-half goals were scored in each of Estonia's last 10 matches across all competitions.

Probable Estonia line-up (4-2-3-1): Karl Hein, Rasmus Peetson, Märten Kuusk, Karol Mets, Michael Schjönning-Larsen, Robi Saarma, Markus Soomets, Kevor Palumets, Mattias Käit, Martin Miller, Alex Tamm

Unavailable: Vlasiy Sinyavskiy (injured)

Team chances

The margin-free assessment gives Iceland a 73.5% chance of winning: average odds of 1.30 and fair odds of 1.36. For a draw, the corresponding figures are 17.4%, 5.50 and 5.75; for an Estonia win, they are 9.1%, 10.50 and 10.99.

Total goals prediction

At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 at 1.68 has shorter odds than Under 2.5 at 2.20. At the 3.5-goal line, by contrast, Under 3.5 at 1.48 is clearly favoured over Over 3.5 at 2.55.

Handicap prediction

Iceland (-1.5) are available at 1.85, while Estonia (+1.5) are 1.95. On the other lines, Iceland (-1) are 1.40 against 2.70 for Estonia (+1); Iceland (0) at 1.06 have considerably shorter odds than Estonia (0) at 6.70.

Both teams to score prediction

Both teams to score – No at 1.68 has shorter odds than Both teams to score – Yes at 2.13, meaning the market considers it more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

Double chance forecast

Bookmaker	1X	12	X2
Bet365	1/50	13/100	11/4
William Hill	1/20	3/20	27/10
888sport	1/20	3/20	13/5

Odds are current as of the material publication date

Team total goals prediction

Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Iceland — 2 goals; Estonia — 0.5 goals.

Iceland team total goals

Iceland team total: Over 1.5 goals at 1.40 has shorter odds than Under 1.5 at 2.70; Over 2 is 1.70 against 2.08 for Under 2. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 at 1.60 is favoured over Over 2.5 at 2.30.

Estonia team total goals

Estonia team total: at the 0.5-goal line, Under 0.5 at 1.75 has shorter odds than Over 0.5 at 2.05. Under 1 at 1.20 is clearly favoured over Over 1 at 4.20, as is Under 1.5 at 1.09 over Over 1.5 at 5.60.

Who Will Referee the Match

Milos Milanovic (Serbia)

Matches — 6 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);

Average fouls per match — 22;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.3;

Matches with a red card — 0 out of 6;

Matches with a penalty — 3 out of 6.