Betting Tip
Lincoln Red Imps FC go into the return leg with a comfortable two-goal cushion, but there is no guarantee they will go through, as an away match lies ahead.
Lincoln Red Imps FC were good at their own stadium, but they lose a noticeable amount of their strength away from home - roughly 50%. Away trips in the mid-mountain conditions where the Andorrans' stadium is located are especially difficult for them. In the previous European season, which stretched into the winter, the team under Juan Jose Bezares lost five of their seven away matches across all three European competitions, with an aggregate score of 4:22 in those defeats. Even so, that did not stop them from coming close to reaching the UEFA Conference League play-off round.
The hosts in the upcoming meeting therefore need to deny their opponents counter-attacking opportunities - and that is most likely what Lincoln Red Imps FC will focus on. At 3:1, that tactic looks particularly convenient and logical.
Lincoln Red Imps FC really did punish almost every mistake Inter Club d'Escaldes made: they converted a penalty, took advantage of a loss of possession in the opposition half and capitalised on confusion in the penalty area. At the same time, the shot count was roughly even - 17 to 16 - while possession was almost entirely with the Gibraltar side: 61% compared with 39% for the hosts.
Things could have gone even better had it not been for Christian Rutjens' own goal. The team are unlikely to be as fortunate away from home.
In the previous UEFA Conference League, Lincoln Red Imps FC lost away to Hamrun Spartans, among others, 3:1. The Maltese side are no giants, so even against the Andorrans, the Gibraltar champions are not immune from defeat. Besides, a narrow home win can quite reasonably be considered a result that would suit Lincoln Red Imps FC.
Given Lincoln Red Imps FC's clear tilt towards home matches, this bet looks fairly safe.