Odds overview
The Republic of Ireland are slight favourites — an away win is available at 2.45, compared with around 2.95 for an Israel win and 3.35 for a draw. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.80 has shorter odds than Over 2.5 goals at 2.00. The Republic of Ireland Draw No Bet, handicap (0), at 1.75 looks more attractive than Israel Draw No Bet, handicap (0), at 2.10.
Why the Republic of Ireland are favourites
Bookmakers favour the Republic of Ireland: an away win is offered at 2.45, an Israel win at 2.95 and a draw at 3.35.
• Israel's opponents regularly find space near their goal: in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches, the opposition had at least four shots on target.
• Meanwhile, the Republic of Ireland consistently limit their opponents' scoring: in their last 10 matches across all competitions, no opponent scored more than two goals.
Form and Line-up Israel
In the opening round, Israel equalised against Austria in the 55th minute, but went down to ten players a minute later and lost 1:3. Their matches regularly feature goals: at least one goal was scored in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions. Israel rarely come out on top for shots on target, though — they failed to win that count in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- The combined total of shots on target exceeded 7.5 in 9 of Israel's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Israel's opponents took at least four corners in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Under 24.5 total fouls was a winning bet in 8 of Israel's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Israel line-up (4-2-3-1): Daniel Peretz, Guy Mizrahi, Idan Nachmias, Nikita Stoinov, Roy Revivo, Eliel Peretz, Anan Khalaili, Dor Peretz, Oscar Gloukh, Manor Solomon, Dor Turgeman
Unavailable: Saied Abu Farchi (suspended)
Form and Line-up Republic of Ireland
The Republic of Ireland began the tournament with a 0:1 away defeat to Kosovo, conceding the only goal in the 83rd minute. Their away UEFA Nations League matches tend to be tight: in 9 of their last 10 away games, the combined total did not exceed three goals and the total number of shots on target stayed below 10.
- The Republic of Ireland had no more than four shots on target in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- The Republic of Ireland scored under 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Republic of Ireland under 2.5 team goals was a winning bet in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
Probable Republic of Ireland line-up (3-4-2-1): Caoimhin Kelleher, James Abankwah, Jake O'Brien, John Egan, Dara O'Shea, Liam Scales, Jayson Molumby, Jason Knight, Finn Azaz, Chiedozie Ogbene, Troy Parrott
Unavailable: Nathan Collins, Mason Melia (injured)
The teams' chances
After removing the bookmaker's margin, Israel's win probability is 32.4%, with odds of 2.95 and fair odds of 3.08; the draw is 28.5%, at 3.35 and 3.50; and a Republic of Ireland win is 39.0%, at 2.45 and 2.56. The Republic of Ireland have the highest probability, but their advantage over Israel is modest.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel win | 2.95 | 3.08 | 32.4% |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.50 | 28.5% |
| Republic of Ireland win | 2.45 | 2.56 | 39.0% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.80 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.00. At 3.5 goals, the difference is more pronounced: Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.30, compared with 3.15 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Goals line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| 3.5 | 1.30 | 3.15 |
Handicap prediction
Israel (-1.5) are offered at 5.30 and the Republic of Ireland (-1.5) at 4.50; at +1.5, the Republic of Ireland (+1.5) have shorter odds of 1.11 than Israel (+1.5) at 1.15. For the -1 handicap line, the odds are 4.50 on Israel (-1) and 3.75 on the Republic of Ireland (-1); for the +1 line, they are 1.23 on Israel (+1) and 1.15 on the Republic of Ireland (+1). At handicap (0), the Republic of Ireland Draw No Bet at 1.75 is shorter than Israel Draw No Bet at 2.10.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.30 | -1.5 | 4.50 |
| 1.15 | 1.5 | 1.11 |
| 4.50 | -1 | 3.75 |
| 1.23 | 1 | 1.15 |
| 2.10 | 0 | 1.75 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.75, while Both teams to score — No is at 2.00. The shorter odds on Yes suggest that both teams scoring is considered more likely than at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.75 |
| No | 2.00 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
57/100
|
33/100
|
9/25
|
| William Hill |
11/25
|
33/100
|
11/25
|
| 888sport |
53/100
|
33/100
|
2/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goals lines for this match: Israel — 1 goal; the Republic of Ireland — 1.5 goals.
Israel team goals
Israel team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.35 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 3.00; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is available at 1.70 and Under 1 at 2.10. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 at 1.45 is favoured over Over 1.5 at 2.60.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.10 | 1 | 1.70 |
| 1.45 | 1.5 | 2.60 |
Republic of Ireland team goals
Republic of Ireland team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.25 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.55, while Over 1 at 1.55 is shorter than Under 1 at 2.40. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 at 1.57 is favoured over Over 1.5 at 2.30; at 2 goals, Under 2 is available at 1.20 compared with 4.00 for Over 2.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.55 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.40 | 1 | 1.55 |
| 1.57 | 1.5 | 2.30 |
| 1.20 | 2 | 4.00 |
