Odds overview
Italy to win at 2.17 looks more attractive than Belgium to win at 3.25, while the draw at 3.55 is quoted slightly higher. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 at 1.80 is rated slightly higher than Under 2.5 at 2.00. In the handicap market, Italy Draw No Bet is available at 1.60 compared with Belgium Draw No Bet at 2.35.
Why Italy are favourites
Italy to win is available at 2.17, Belgium to win is at 3.25, while the draw is available at 3.55.
- Italy have shown a solid defensive game: in 8 of their last 10 matches, their opponents scored fewer than three goals.
- The hosts are active from corners: Italy have taken at least four corners in 8 of their last 10 matches.
Form and Line-up Italy
Italy maintain a high level of discipline: in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions, the team committed no more than 13 fouls. At home, the national team have been uncompromising, playing eight consecutive halves without a draw.
- At least 8 corners were taken in 8 of Italy's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Italy's opponents took no more than 4 corners in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- In 8 of Italy's last 10 home matches in all competitions, their opponents were caught offside no more than once.
Probable Italy line-up (4-3-3): Gianluigi Donnarumma, Michael Kayode, Gianluca Mancini, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Alessandro Romano, Nicolò Barella, Sandro Tonali, Antonio Vergara, Francesco Pio Esposito, Giacomo Raspadori
Form and Line-up Belgium
For Belgium, this will be their first match under Marco van Bommel, who took charge of the team in the summer of 2026. Fewer than four goals were scored in the first halves of Belgium's last 10 matches in all competitions, indicating cautious starts.
- In their last 10 matches in all competitions, Belgium's opponents scored no more than two goals.
- Belgium scored at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- At least two goals were scored in 9 of Belgium's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable Belgium line-up (4-2-3-1): Senne Lammens, Timothy Castagne, Koni De Winter, Zeno Debast, Maxim De Cuyper, Youri Tielemans, Roméo Lavia, Mika Godts, Dodi Lukebakio, Kevin De Bruyne, Charles De Ketelaere
Team chances
Italy to win is available at 2.17; the fair odds are 2.28 and the probability is 43.9%. The draw is quoted at 3.55, with fair odds of 3.73 and a probability of 26.8%. Belgium to win at 3.25 has fair odds of 3.41 and a probability of 29.3%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy to win | 2.17 | 2.28 | 43.9% |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.73 | 26.8% |
| Belgium to win | 3.25 | 3.41 | 29.3% |
Total goals prediction
In the 2.5-goal line, Over is quoted shorter at 1.80 than Under at 2.00. At the 3.5-goal mark, Under at 1.40 is clearly preferred, while Over is available at 2.75.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| 3.5 | 1.40 | 2.75 |
Handicap prediction
For the -1.5 handicap line, Italy are at 3.70 and Belgium at 5.90. In the 1.5 line, Italy at 1.08 are quoted shorter than Belgium at 1.23. On the -1 handicap, Italy are available at 3.00 versus Belgium at 5.20; on the +1 handicap, Italy are at 1.11 versus Belgium at 1.33. In the 0 line, Italy at 1.60 look more attractive than Belgium at 2.35.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.70 | -1.5 | 5.90 |
| 1.08 | 1.5 | 1.23 |
| 3.00 | -1 | 5.20 |
| 1.11 | 1 | 1.33 |
| 1.60 | 0 | 2.35 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.65 is quoted shorter than Both teams to score — No at 2.17, meaning the option of both teams scoring is rated more highly.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.65 |
| No | 2.17 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
29/100
|
67/100
|
| William Hill |
9/25
|
3/10
|
13/20
|
| 888sport |
9/25
|
3/10
|
13/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Italy — 1.5 goals, Belgium — 1 goal.
Italy team total
Italy team total: Over 0.5 at 1.17 is quoted significantly shorter than Under 0.5 at 4.15. On the 1-goal line, Over is available at 1.35 versus Under at 2.90; on the 1.5-goal line, Under at 1.77 is quoted shorter than Over at 2.00. In the 2-goal line, Under at 1.33 is preferred, while Over is at 3.05.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.15 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 2.90 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.77 | 1.5 | 2.00 |
| 1.33 | 2 | 3.05 |
Belgium team total
Belgium team total: Over 0.5 at 1.33 is quoted shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.00. On the 1-goal line, Over at 1.65 is preferred to Under at 2.15, while on the 1.5-goal line, Under at 1.50 is rated more highly than Over at 2.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 | 0.5 | 1.33 |
| 2.15 | 1 | 1.65 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | 2.55 |
