Odds overview
France are the favourites: they are 1.78 to win, compared with 4.20 for Italy and 3.95 for the draw. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.57 is a much stronger favourite than Under 2.5 goals at 2.28. Italy (1) in the handicap market is available at 1.57, compared with 2.28 for France (1).
Why France are the favourites
France are the bookmakers' favourites, with the visitors available at 1.78 to win. The draw is 3.95, while an Italy win is 4.20.
- France have avoided defeat in eight of their last ten matches across all official competitions.
- Italy have failed to beat France in eight of their last ten meetings.
- Italy have won just three of their previous seven competitive matches.
Form and Line-up Italy
Italy last played on 5 October 2026, beating Turkey 3:1 at home. Before that, on 28 September, they beat the same opponents 4:1 away. Italy also dropped points against France (1:1) and lost to Belgium (0:2).
- Italy have avoided defeat in eight of their last ten matches across all official competitions.
- More than 1.5 goals have been scored in each of Italy's last ten matches across all official competitions.
Probable Italy line-up (4-3-3): Gianluigi Donnarumma, Riccardo Calafiori, Daniele Ghilardi, Alessandro Bastoni, Michael Kayode, Nicolò Barella, Alessandro Romano, Sandro Tonali, Nicolò Cambiaghi, Francesco Pio Esposito, Sebastiano Esposito
Absentees: Giacomo Raspadori, Gianluca Mancini, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Costantino Favasuli, Niccolò Fortini, Moise Kean, Leonardo Spinazzola, Matteo Ruggeri, Mohamed Ali Zoma (all injured), Andrea Cambiaso (doubtful).
Form and Line-up France
France played their previous competitive match on 5 October 2026, beating Belgium 4:1 convincingly at home. Before that, they drew with Italy (1:1) and beat Belgium (1:0) and Turkey (1:0).
- France took more than 11.5 shots in nine of their ten away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- France's opponents scored fewer than 1.5 goals in eight of their last ten UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable France line-up (4-3-3): Guillaume Restes, Malo Gusto, Leny Yoro, Jérémy Jacquet, Andy Diouf, Rayan Cherki, Lucas Da Cunha, Eduardo Camavinga, Michael Olise, Bradley Barcola, Désiré Doué.
Absentees: Ousmane Dembélé, Jules Koundé, Pierre Kalulu, Maxence Lacroix, Maghnes Akliouche, Manu Koné, Estéban Lepaul (all injured).
The teams' chances
The average odds for an Italy win are 4.20, with fair odds of 4.42 and a probability of 22.6%. The draw is available at 3.95, with fair odds of 4.16 and a probability of 24.0%. A France win is offered at 1.78, with fair odds of 1.87 and a probability of 53.3%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy to win | 4.20 | 4.42 | 22.6% |
| Draw | 3.95 | 4.16 | 24.0% |
| France to win | 1.78 | 1.87 | 53.3% |
Total goals betting
At a line of 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 is available at 2.28 and Over 2.5 at 1.57. For a total of 2 goals, Under 2 is available at 3.60 and Over 2 at 1.24. At 3.5 goals, the odds are 1.53 for Under 3.5 and 2.37 for Over 3.5.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.28 | 1.57 |
| 2 | 3.60 | 1.24 |
| 3.5 | 1.53 | 2.37 |
Handicap betting
Italy (1) in the handicap market are quoted at 1.57, while France (1) are available at 2.28.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.57 | 1 | 2.28 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
21/20
|
11/50
|
9/50
|
| William Hill |
19/20
|
29/100
|
11/50
|
| LeoVegas |
19/20
|
13/50
|
11/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Italy — 1 goal; France — 2 goals.
Italy team goals
For Italy, Under 0.5 goals is available at 2.89 and Over 0.5 at 1.36. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is offered at 2.00 and Over 1 at 1.75; Under 1 is also listed at 4.15 and Over 1 at 1.19.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.89 | 0.5 | 1.36 |
| 2.00 | 1 | 1.75 |
| 4.15 | 1 | 1.19 |
France team goals
For France, Under 0.5 goals is available at 5.00 and Over 0.5 at 1.12. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are 2.15 for Under 1.5 and 1.64 for Over 1.5; at the 2-goal line, they are 1.66 for Under 2 and 2.11 for Over 2. At 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 is available at 1.36 and Over 2.5 at 2.89.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | 0.5 | 1.12 |
| 2.15 | 1.5 | 1.64 |
| 1.66 | 2 | 2.11 |
| 1.36 | 2.5 | 2.89 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Istvan Kovach (Romania)
Matches — 11 (international matches, 2026);
Average fouls per match — 26;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.5;
Matches with a red card — 2 of 11;
Matches with a penalty — 2 of 11.
