Kazakhstan vs Moldova: prediction & betting odds 2 October 2026

Odds overview

Kazakhstan are favourites: a home win is available at around 1.70, compared with 3.70 for a draw and 5.40 for a Moldova win. Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 is favoured over Over 2.5 at 2.08. Kazakhstan (-1.5) at 2.80 offers much longer odds than Moldova (+1.5) at 1.38.

Why Kazakhstan are favourites

Bookmakers favour Kazakhstan: a home win is offered at 1.70, a draw at 3.70 and an away win at 5.40.

• Moldova lost 0:2 away to Slovakia and have yet to win at the start of the tournament.

• Kazakhstan secured a 1:1 draw away to the Faroe Islands, while Moldova drew with them by the same score at home.

• Kazakhstan picked up eight points in qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, while Moldova managed just one.

Form and Line-up Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan lost 1:2 away to Slovakia in the last round, conceding the decisive goal only in the 82nd minute. Low-scoring results remain common in their tournament matches: eight of Kazakhstan's last 10 UEFA Nations League games have featured fewer than 3.5 goals.

• Kazakhstan have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in nine of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
• Kazakhstan have committed at least as many fouls as their opponents in each of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
• Kazakhstan have received at least as many yellow cards as their opponents in nine of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.

Probable Kazakhstan line-up (4-2-3-1): Stas Pokatilov, Arsen Ashirbek, Temirlan Yerlanov, Nuraly Alip, Nauryzbek Zhagorov, Damir Kasabulat, Dinmuhamed Karaman, Ismail Bekbolat, Zhasulan Amir, Stanislav Basmanov, Ramazan Karimov

Absentees: Islambek Kuat (doubtful)

Form and Line-up Moldova

Moldova have also taken a cautious approach away from home in the UEFA Nations League: they have attempted fewer than 12.5 shots in nine of their last 10 away matches. In this edition, they had eight against Slovakia (0:2) but 22 against the Faroe Islands (1:1). The latter was the exception.

• Moldova have committed more than 11.5 fouls in all of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
• Moldova have had fewer than 4.5 shots on target in nine of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
• Moldova have received at least two yellow cards in nine of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.

Probable Moldova line-up (3-5-1-1): Dumitru Celeadnic, Mihail Gherasimencov, Iurie Iovu, Cătălin Cucoș, Oleg Reabciuk, Victor Stînă, Sergiu Perciun, Vladimir Fratea, Danila Forov, Dmitri Mandricenco, Petru Popescu

The teams' chances

A Kazakhstan win is offered at 1.70, with fair odds of 1.77 and a 56.4% probability. The draw is available at 3.70, with fair odds of 3.86 and a 25.9% probability; the corresponding figures for a Moldova win are 5.40, 5.64 and 17.7%.

Total goals prediction

At the 2.5-goal line, Under is shorter at 1.75 than Over at 2.08. At the 2-goal line, Over at 1.52 is favoured over Under at 2.45, while at 3.5 goals, Under at 1.27 is much shorter than Over at 3.35.

Handicap prediction

Kazakhstan (-1.5) are offered at 2.80, while Moldova (+1.5) are at 1.38. At the one-goal line, Kazakhstan (-1) are available at 2.25 and Moldova (+1) at 1.65. With a zero handicap, Kazakhstan (0) are at 1.25 and Moldova (0) at 3.65.

Both teams to score prediction

Both teams to score – No at 1.75 has shorter odds than Both teams to score – Yes at 2.02: the market slightly favours at least one team failing to score.

Double chance forecast

Bookmaker	1X	12	X2
Bet365	17/100	9/25	83/100
William Hill	1/5	33/100	17/20
888sport	9/50	9/25	17/20

Odds are current as of the material publication date

Team goals prediction

Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Kazakhstan — 1.5 goals; Moldova — 0.5 goals.

Kazakhstan team goals

For Kazakhstan's team goals, Under 0.5 is available at 4.60 against 1.15 for Over 0.5; at the 1-goal line, Under is at 3.30 and Over at 1.30. Under 1.5 and Over 1.5 have identical odds of 1.88, while at the 2-goal line, Under at 1.40 is shorter than Over at 2.75.

Moldova team goals

For Moldova's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.70 is slightly favoured over Under 0.5 at 2.10. At the 1-goal line, Under at 1.40 is considerably shorter than Over at 2.75; at 1.5 goals, Under is at 1.20 against 4.20 for Over.

Who Will Referee the Match

Marian Barbu (Romania)

Matches – 9 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);

Average fouls per match – 28;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.7;

Matches with a red card – 1 of 9;

Matches with a penalty – 4 of 9.