Odds overview
Kazakhstan are favourites: a home win is available at around 1.70, compared with 3.70 for a draw and 5.40 for a Moldova win. Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 has shorter odds than Over 2.5 goals at 2.08. On the handicap, Kazakhstan (-1.5) at 2.80 have markedly longer odds than Moldova (+1.5) at 1.38.
Why Kazakhstan are favourites
Bookmakers favour Kazakhstan: a home win is offered at 1.70, a draw at 3.70 and an away win at 5.40.
• The visitors lost 0:2 away to Slovakia and have yet to win at the start of the tournament.
• Kazakhstan earned a 1:1 draw away to the Faroe Islands, whom Moldova also held to the same score at home.
• In qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Kazakhstan collected eight points, while Moldova managed only one.
Form and Line-up Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan lost 1:2 away to Slovakia in the last round, conceding the decisive goal only in the 82nd minute. Low-scoring results remain common in their tournament matches: eight of Kazakhstan's last 10 UEFA Nations League games have featured under 3.5 goals.
- Kazakhstan have scored under 1.5 goals in nine of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Kazakhstan have not lost the foul count in any of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Kazakhstan have not lost the yellow-card count in nine of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
Probable Kazakhstan line-up (4-2-3-1): Stas Pokatilov, Arsen Ashirbek, Temirlan Yerlanov, Nuraly Alip, Nauryzbek Zhagorov, Damir Kasabulat, Dinmuhamed Karaman, Ismail Bekbolat, Zhasulan Amir, Stanislav Basmanov, Ramazan Karimov
Unavailable: Islambek Kuat (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Moldova
Moldova have also taken a cautious approach to away matches in the UEFA Nations League: they have had fewer than 12.5 shots in nine of their last 10 away games. In this campaign, they had eight against Slovakia (0:2) but 22 against the Faroe Islands (1:1). The latter was the exception.
- Moldova have committed over 11.5 fouls in all of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Moldova have had fewer than 4.5 shots on target in nine of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Moldova have received at least two yellow cards in nine of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
Probable Moldova line-up (3-5-1-1): Dumitru Celeadnic, Mihail Gherasimencov, Iurie Iovu, Cătălin Cucoș, Oleg Reabciuk, Victor Stînă, Sergiu Perciun, Vladimir Fratea, Danila Forov, Dmitri Mandricenco, Petru Popescu
The teams' chances
Kazakhstan to win is offered at 1.70, with fair odds of 1.77 and a 56.4% probability. A draw is available at 3.70, with fair odds of 3.86 and a 25.9% probability; the corresponding figures for a Moldova win are 5.40, 5.64 and 17.7%.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan to win | 1.70 | 1.77 | 56.4% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.86 | 25.9% |
| Moldova to win | 5.40 | 5.64 | 17.7% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under is shorter at 1.75 than Over at 2.08. At 2 goals, Over at 1.52 is favoured over Under at 2.45, while at 3.5 goals Under at 1.27 is well ahead of Over at 3.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.75 | 2.08 |
| 2 | 2.45 | 1.52 |
| 3.5 | 1.27 | 3.35 |
Handicap prediction
Kazakhstan (-1.5) are available at 2.80, while Moldova (+1.5) are at 1.38. At the one-goal line, Kazakhstan (-1) are offered at 2.25 and Moldova (+1) at 1.65. For a zero handicap, Kazakhstan Draw No Bet (0) are at 1.25 and Moldova Draw No Bet (0) at 3.65.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.38 | |
| 2.25 | -1 | |
| 1 | 1.65 | |
| 1.25 | 0 | 3.65 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – No at 1.75 has shorter odds than Both teams to score – Yes at 2.02: the market slightly favours at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.02 |
| No | 1.75 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/50
|
29/100
|
11/10
|
| 888sport |
17/100
|
29/100
|
11/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Kazakhstan — 1.5 goals; Moldova — 0.5 goals.
Kazakhstan team total goals
Kazakhstan team totals: Under 0.5 goals is available at 4.60, compared with 1.15 for Over 0.5; at the 1-goal line, Under is 3.30 and Over is 1.30. Under 1.5 and Over 1.5 goals are both offered at 1.88, while at the 2-goal line Under at 1.40 is shorter than Over at 2.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.60 | 0.5 | 1.15 |
| 3.30 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.88 | 1.5 | 1.88 |
| 1.40 | 2 | 2.75 |
Moldova team total goals
Moldova team totals: Over 0.5 goals at 1.70 is a slight favourite over Under 0.5 at 2.10. At the 1-goal line, Under at 1.40 is much shorter than Over at 2.75; at 1.5 goals, Under is 1.20 compared with 4.20 for Over.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.10 | 0.5 | 1.70 |
| 1.40 | 1 | 2.75 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 4.20 |
