Betting Tip
KuPS will be playing at home in comfortable weather. Unlike the previous round, the Finnish team now have to overturn a deficit rather than protect a lead. They will need to attack from the outset. Even so, for the bookmakers KuPS are not favourites, even on their own pitch, with odds above 3.0. Are Miika Nuutinen’s men really that weak, even compared with the champions of Azerbaijan?
KuPS will push forward from the first minute. In Azerbaijan the Canaries managed only five shots, coming under heavy pressure. At home the picture will change: on their own artificial turf the team will play far more aggressively. Leading the line again will be the imposing Piotr Parzyszek, with Gustav Engvall and Bob Nii Armah supporting him from the flanks.
In the first meeting the Owls from Baku completely controlled the game, enjoying 64% possession and taking 18 shots on goal. The midfield at Sabah FK is confidently marshalled by Aleksey Isayev, while Kaheem Parris and Veljko Simic provide the threat out wide. Even so, it is hard for the visitors from the south to maintain a high tempo for all 90 minutes, so in the away leg they are likely to drop deep and focus on defence.
Home advantage and the hosts’ European experience should play a key role. KuPS have scored at Vare Areena in six of their last nine European qualifying home matches, including all three in the Champions League. We cannot guarantee that the Finnish club will progress, but one or two goals from them look almost certain — and from there they can push on for the win.