Betting Tip
KuPS' winning run in the Finnish championship can stretch to any number of matches, but it means nothing in Europe, where they cannot even score against a team who are not regular champions of Azerbaijan. Universitatea Craiova are in a similar bracket, but they are favourites even away from home.
KuPS did not score at all in the second qualifying round of the UEFA Champions League. They were playing the champions of Azerbaijan, but the opponents were not even Qarabag, who made plenty of noise last season, but only Sabah, who became national champions for the first time. In the Finnish top flight, the Kuopio side have won six in a row, three of them with clean sheets, but the previous couple of weeks showed just how big the gap is between their domestic competition and Europe's middle class. Even in the UEFA Europa League, KuPS have never reached the group stage in five attempts.
Universitatea Craiova came unstuck against Bulgaria's Levski Sofia, who went through thanks to a narrow home win. In Craiova, the Sofia side played from a position of strength: the hosts were only chasing the game after it was 0:2 by the 17th minute. Even so, two goals against a fairly solid team should give the blue-and-white fans reason for optimism. The Students gained serious European experience last season by reaching the league phase of the UEFA Conference League. There, they were just one goal short of making the knockout play-off round.
Universitatea had possession and territory even in the match they lost in Sofia. Admittedly, that was because Levski gave them space after scoring as early as the eighth minute. KuPS are unlikely to score that quickly, if they manage to score at all. The match in the Bulgarian capital was the first exception in six European qualifying matches for the Students: they failed to find the net. Just as KuPS allowed Sabah to score, the Romanians are certain to score too. Most likely, they will only manage to open the hosts up for goals after the break (that is exactly when Sabah scored), which is why the odds on Universitatea's individual over 0.5 goals are lower specifically for the second half. That is the bet to take.