Odds overview
Latvia have a slight edge in the 1X2 market: a Latvia win is 2.60, compared with 2.80 for Cyprus, while the draw is 3.30. In the main 2.5-goal totals market, Under 2.5 is around 1.68 and Over 2.5 is 2.20. With a handicap of 0, Latvia are 1.85 and Cyprus are 1.95: the market rates Latvia slightly more highly.
Why Latvia are favourites
Bookmakers offer similar odds on the match outcomes: Latvia to win is 2.60, Cyprus to win is 2.80, and the draw is 3.30.
- Latvia lost to the Faroe Islands in their June match, conceding the decisive goal right at the end.
- Cyprus beat Liechtenstein in their previous match, establishing a clear advantage and hitting the woodwork twice.
Form and Line-up Latvia
Latvia face an intense September schedule: four matches in eleven days will inevitably force the coaching staff to rotate the squad.
Latvia's previous home Nations League matches have consistently been restrained affairs: the total number of goals did not exceed 3.5 in any of the ten matches, while the total number of offsides stayed below 3.5.
- Latvia scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 home Nations League matches.
- Latvia took more than 3.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 home Nations League matches.
- Latvia's opponents committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home Nations League matches.
Probable Latvia line-up (4-4-2): Frenks Davids Orols, Daniels Balodis, Antonijs Černomordijs, Roberts Savalnieks, Raivis Andris Jurkovskis, Andrejs Ciganiks, Eduards Emsis, Lūkass Vapne, Maksims Toņiševs, Vladislavs Gutkovskis, Kristaps Grabovskis
Form and Line-up Cyprus
Cyprus also face a packed schedule of four matches in eleven days, with their first two fixtures away — against Montenegro and Latvia.
The coaching staff have added Marcus Edwards, Leonidas Konomis and Nicholas Tsaroulla to the September squad, giving themselves more options. Meanwhile, defender Konstantinos Laifis trained individually before the camp began.
- There were more than 2.5 offsides in 8 of Cyprus's last 10 away matches in all competitions.
- Cyprus's opponents received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 away matches in all competitions.
- The total number of yellow cards exceeded 2.5 in 8 of Cyprus's last 10 away matches in all competitions.
Probable Cyprus line-up (4-2-3-1): Antreas Paraskevas, Andreas Siikkis, Konstantinos Sotiriou, Nikolas Panayiotou, Kostas Pileas, Ioannis Kostis, Grigoris Kastanos, Charalampos Kyriakou, Angelos Neofytou, Andronikos Kakoullis, Marinos Tzionis
The teams' chances
Latvia to win at 2.60 corresponds to a margin-free probability of 36.8% and fair odds of 2.72. For the draw, the figures are 3.30, 29.0% and 3.45; for Cyprus to win, they are 2.80, 34.2% and 2.93. Latvia have a marginal edge over Cyprus.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia win | 2.60 | 2.72 | 36.8% |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.45 | 29.0% |
| Cyprus win | 2.80 | 2.93 | 34.2% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is 1.68, compared with 2.20 for Over 2.5, pointing towards a lower-scoring match. At a total of 2 goals, Over 2 is 1.65 and Under 2 is 2.15. For 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 is available at 1.22 and Over 3.5 at 3.80: the market considers three or more goals much more likely than four or more.
| Total | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.68 | 2.20 |
| 2 | 2.15 | 1.65 |
| 3.5 | 1.22 | 3.80 |
Handicap prediction
The odds for Latvia (-1.5) and Cyprus (-1.5) are close — 5.20 and 5.50. The same applies to Latvia (+1.5) and Cyprus (+1.5): 1.10 and 1.11. On the -1 handicap line, Latvia (-1) are 4.30 and Cyprus (-1) are 4.60; on the +1 line, the odds are 1.14 and 1.16 respectively. With a handicap of 0, Latvia's odds are shorter than Cyprus's: 1.85 against 1.95.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.20 | -1.5 | 5.50 |
| 1.10 | 1.5 | 1.11 |
| 4.30 | -1 | 4.60 |
| 1.14 | 1 | 1.16 |
| 1.85 | 0 | 1.95 |
Both teams to score prediction
The market barely separates the two options: Both teams to score — Yes is 1.88, while Both teams to score — No is 1.87. The latter means that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.88 |
| No | 1.87 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/25
|
1/4
|
11/25
|
| William Hill |
11/25
|
7/20
|
11/25
|
| 888sport |
11/25
|
33/100
|
11/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Latvia — 1 goal; Cyprus — 1 goal.
Latvia team total goals
For Latvia's team total, Under 0.5 goals is 2.90 and Over 0.5 is 1.35; at 1 goal, the odds are 2.02 and 1.75 respectively; at 1.5 goals, Under is 1.45 and Over is 2.65. The market expects Latvia to score at least once but is more cautious about two or more goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.90 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.02 | 1 | 1.75 |
| 1.45 | 1.5 | 2.65 |
Cyprus team total goals
For Cyprus's team total, Under 0.5 goals is available at 2.85 and Over 0.5 at 1.37. At 1 goal, the odds are almost level: Under is 1.87 and Over is 1.88. At 1.5 goals, Under is 1.38 against 2.80 for Over, showing that the market considers a maximum of one Cyprus goal much more likely.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.85 | 0.5 | 1.37 |
| 1.87 | 1 | 1.88 |
| 1.38 | 1.5 | 2.80 |
