Latvia vs Montenegro: prediction & betting odds 2 October 2026

Odds overview

Montenegro are favourites to win at 1.87, compared with 4.40 for Latvia, while the draw is quoted at 3.50. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.65 is considered considerably more likely than Over 2.5 goals at 2.25. In the main handicap market at 0, Montenegro (0) at 1.35 are favoured over Latvia (0) at 2.95.

Why Montenegro are favourites

Montenegro are available to win at 1.87, Latvia at 4.40, and the draw at 3.50.

• Montenegro have taken six points from two rounds and lead Group C2 outright, while Latvia are bottom with one point.

• The visitors won their first two group matches against Cyprus (2:1) and Armenia (3:2), with Aleksa Latković scoring the winner in Yerevan in the 89th minute.

Form and Line-up Latvia

Latvia have made a difficult start to the tournament in attack: after losing 0:2 to Armenia, they drew 0:0 at home with Cyprus, who took the initiative late on and struck the crossbar in stoppage time.

Advanced statistics also reflect the low number of chances created: matches involving Latvia have an average combined xG of 1.53, the second lowest among the tournament's 54 teams. No more than three offsides were recorded in each of their last 10 Nations League home games.

• Latvia took more than 3.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 Nations League home matches.
• Fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in all of Latvia's last 10 Nations League home matches.
• Latvia's opponents committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 Nations League home matches.

Probable Latvia line-up (5-3-2): Rihards Matrevics, Antonijs Černomordijs, Dennis Cirkin, Deniss Melniks, Roberts Savalnieks, Andrejs Cigaņiks, Lūkass Vapne, Eduards Emsis, Dmitrijs Zelenkovs, Vladislavs Gutkovskis, Roberts Uldriķis

Form and Line-up Montenegro

Although Montenegro took maximum points at the start of the group stage, they take a pragmatic approach away from home and do not seek total dominance: in 9 of their last 10 Nations League away matches, they had fewer than 12.5 shots, including blocked attempts, and no more than 4.5 shots on target.

• Montenegro's opponents committed more than 12.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 Nations League away matches.
• Fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 9 of Montenegro's last 10 Nations League away matches.
• Montenegro received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 Nations League away matches.

Probable Montenegro line-up (4-1-3-2): Balša Popović, Milan Roganović, Andrej Đurić, Stefan Savic, Ognjen Gašević, Stefan Loncar, Marko Janković, Andrija Bulatović, Dusan Vukovic, Milutin Osmajić, Nikola Krstović

Teams' chances

Montenegro to win: average odds of 1.87, fair odds of 1.96 and a probability of 51.0%; that is higher than the chances of a draw (3.50, 3.67 and 27.3%) or a Latvia win (4.40, 4.61 and 21.7%).

Total goals prediction

Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.65, compared with 2.25 for Over 2.5 goals. At a line of 2 goals, the odds are reversed: Under 2 goals is 2.15 and Over 2 goals is 1.65. Under 3.5 goals at 1.20 is considerably more favoured than Over 3.5 goals at 4.10.

Handicap prediction

Montenegro (-1.5) are quoted at 3.65, while Latvia (+1.5) are at 1.25. At the -1 line, Montenegro (-1) are available at 2.85; at the +1 line, Latvia (+1) are at 1.43. For the 0 handicap, Montenegro (0) at 1.35 have considerably shorter odds than Latvia (0) at 2.95.

Both teams to score prediction

Both teams to score — No at 1.73 is favoured over Both teams to score — Yes at 2.05: at least one team is expected not to score.

Double chance forecast

Bookmaker	1X	12	X2
Bet365	11/10	1/4	7/50
William Hill	1/1	3/10	9/50
888sport	11/10	29/100	17/100

Odds are current as of the material publication date

Team total goals prediction

Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Latvia — 0.5 goals; Montenegro — 1.5 goals.

Latvia team goals total

Latvia team goals total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.65 is favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 2.17; at the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.47 has shorter odds than Over 1 goal at 2.60, while at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals at 1.22 is shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 3.85.

Montenegro team goals total

Montenegro team goals total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.20 is considered considerably more likely than Under 0.5 goals at 4.10; Over 1 goal is quoted at 1.42, compared with 2.65 for Under 1 goal. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals at 1.65 is favoured over Over 1.5 goals at 2.15, while at 2 goals, Under 2 goals is 1.25 against 3.55 for Over 2 goals.

Who Will Referee the Match

Radoslav Gidzhenov (Bulgaria)

Matches — 8 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);

Average fouls per match — 21;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.9;

Matches with a red card — 5 of 8;

Matches with a penalty — 2 of 8.