Odds overview
Montenegro to win at 1.87 are favourites over Latvia at 4.40, while the draw is available at 3.50. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.65 is considerably more likely than Over 2.5 at 2.25. For the main handicap of 0, Montenegro Draw No Bet at 1.35 is favoured over Latvia Draw No Bet at 2.95.
Why Montenegro are favourites
Montenegro to win are offered at 1.87, Latvia to win at 4.40 and the draw at 3.50.
• Montenegro have taken six points from two rounds and sit alone at the top of Group C2, while Latvia are bottom with one point.
• The visitors won their opening two group matches against Cyprus (2:1) and Armenia (3:2), with Aleksa Latković scoring the winner in Yerevan in the 89th minute.
Form and Line-up Latvia
Latvia have made a difficult start to the tournament in attack: after losing 0:2 to Armenia, they drew 0:0 at home with Cyprus, who took the initiative late on and hit the crossbar in stoppage time.
The lack of chances is also reflected in the advanced statistics: matches involving Latvia have an average combined xG of 1.53, the second-lowest figure among the tournament's 54 teams. There have also been no more than three offsides in each of Latvia's last 10 home Nations League matches.
- Latvia have taken more than 3.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 home Nations League matches.
- Under 3.5 goals have been scored in all 10 of Latvia's last home Nations League matches.
- Latvia's opponents have committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home Nations League matches.
Probable Latvia line-up (5-3-2): Rihards Matrevics, Antonijs Černomordijs, Dennis Cirkin, Deniss Melniks, Roberts Savalnieks, Andrejs Cigaņiks, Lūkass Vapne, Eduards Emsis, Dmitrijs Zelenkovs, Vladislavs Gutkovskis, Roberts Uldriķis
Form and Line-up Montenegro
Although Montenegro took maximum points at the start of the group stage, they take a pragmatic approach away from home and do not seek total dominance: in 9 of their last 10 away Nations League matches, they had fewer than 12.5 shots including blocked attempts and no more than 4.5 shots on target.
- Montenegro's opponents have committed more than 12.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 away Nations League matches.
- Under 3.5 goals have been scored in 9 of Montenegro's last 10 away Nations League matches.
- Montenegro have received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 away Nations League matches.
Probable Montenegro line-up (4-1-3-2): Balša Popović, Milan Roganović, Andrej Đurić, Stefan Savic, Ognjen Gašević, Stefan Loncar, Marko Janković, Andrija Bulatović, Dusan Vukovic, Milutin Osmajić, Nikola Krstović
Match outcome probabilities
Montenegro to win: average odds of 1.87, fair odds of 1.96 and a probability of 51.0%; that is more likely than a draw (3.50, 3.67 and 27.3%) or a Latvia win (4.40, 4.61 and 21.7%).
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia to win | 4.40 | 4.61 | 21.7% |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.67 | 27.3% |
| Montenegro to win | 1.87 | 1.96 | 51.0% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.65, compared with 2.25 for Over 2.5. At a line of 2, the odds are reversed: Under 2 is 2.15 and Over 2 is 1.65. Under 3.5 at 1.20 is considerably more likely than Over 3.5 at 4.10.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.65 | 2.25 |
| 2 | 2.15 | 1.65 |
| 3.5 | 1.20 | 4.10 |
Handicap prediction
Montenegro (-1.5) are offered at 3.65, while Latvia (+1.5) are at 1.25. At a handicap line of -1, Montenegro (-1) are available at 2.85; at a line of 1, Latvia (+1) are at 1.43. For the zero handicap, Montenegro Draw No Bet (0) at 1.35 is considerably shorter than Latvia Draw No Bet (0) at 2.95.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3.65 | |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | |
| -1 | 2.85 | |
| 1.43 | 1 | |
| 2.95 | 0 | 1.35 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – No at 1.73 is favoured over Both teams to score – Yes at 2.05: at least one team is expected not to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.05 |
| No | 1.73 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/1
|
3/10
|
7/50
|
| 888sport |
91/100
|
3/10
|
1/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Latvia — 0.5 goals; Montenegro — 1.5 goals.
Latvia team total goals
Latvia team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.65 is favoured over Under 0.5 at 2.17; at a line of 1, Under is shorter at 1.47 than Over at 2.60, while at 1.5, Under at 1.22 is shorter than Over at 3.85.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.17 | 0.5 | 1.65 |
| 1.47 | 1 | 2.60 |
| 1.22 | 1.5 | 3.85 |
Montenegro team total goals
Montenegro team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.20 is considerably more likely than Under 0.5 at 4.10; Over 1 is available at 1.42, compared with 2.65 for Under 1. At a line of 1.5, Under at 1.65 is favoured over Over at 2.15, while at 2, Under at 1.25 is favoured over Over at 3.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.10 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.65 | 1 | 1.42 |
| 1.65 | 1.5 | 2.15 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.55 |
