Odds overview
Bayer are clear favourites: they are 1.62 to win, while a Lech win and a draw are available at around 4.80 and 4.40 respectively. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.45 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.57. Lech (+1) is 1.74 and Bayer (+1) is 2.01 in the handicap market, so the market gives a slight edge to the Lech handicap.
Why Bayer are favourites
Bayer are 1.62 to win, the draw is 4.40, and a Lech win is available at 4.80.
- Bayer have made a confident start to their European campaign and sit eighth with 3 points and a 2:0 goal difference, while Lech are 35th with no points and a 0:4 goal difference.
- The German club have shown strong consistency in Europe, avoiding defeat in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Europa League matches.
- Bayer's squad value (€520 million) is almost 10 times that of Lech's players (€57 million).
Form and Line-up Lech
Lech thrashed Śląsk 4:1 in the league, scoring three times in the second half. They sit second in Poland's Ekstraklasa, three points behind leaders Górnik with a game in hand. Their opening UEFA Europa League match, however, ended in a heavy 0:4 defeat to Crystal Palace, in which the Polish side conceded three times and went down to ten men in the 87th minute.
- At least three goals have been scored in 8 of Lech's last 10 UEFA Europa League matches.
- Lech have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Europa League matches.
- Lech have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Europa League matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Mateusz Lis, Joel Pereira, Terry Yegbe, Wojciech Mońka, Michał Gurgul, Radosław Murawski, Pablo Rodríguez, Daniel Håkans, Luis Palma, Filip Jagiello, Mikael Ishak.
Unavailable: Alex Douglas, Ali Gholizadeh, João Moutinho and Allahyar Sayyadmanesh (all injured); Radosław Murawski (suspended).
Form and Line-up Bayer
Bayer come into the match after Bundesliga wins over Mainz (4:3) and RB Leipzig (2:0). They are fourth in the German league with 10 points from 5 matches. They opened their UEFA Europa League campaign with a 2:0 win over Celje, generating 2.40 xG.
- Bayer have scored more than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Bayer are unbeaten in 5 consecutive matches.
- Bayer's opponents have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in all 10 of their last 10 UEFA Europa League matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Mark Flekken, Lucas Vázquez, Edmond Tapsoba, Facundo Medina, Miguel Gutiérrez, Robert Andrich, Aleix García, Moussa Diaby, Malik Tillman, Martin Terrier, Patrick Schick.
Unavailable: Christian Kofane, Montrell Culbreath, Guéla Doué and Kennet Eichhorn (all injured).
The teams' chances
Lech are available at 4.80 to win, with fair odds of 5.05 and a 19.8% probability. The draw is 4.40, with fair odds of 4.63 and a 21.6% probability. Bayer are 1.62 to win, corresponding to fair odds of 1.71 and a 58.6% probability, confirming their status as favourites.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lech win | 4.80 | 5.05 | 19.8% |
| Draw | 4.40 | 4.63 | 21.6% |
| Bayer win | 1.62 | 1.71 | 58.6% |
Total goals prediction
On the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is offered at 2.57 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.45, clearly favouring a high-scoring match. On the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals is 4.15 compared with 1.18 for Over 2 goals. The odds are closer on the 3.5-goal line: Under 3.5 goals is 1.66 and Over 3.5 goals is 2.12.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.57 | 1.45 |
| 2 | 4.15 | 1.18 |
| 3.5 | 1.66 | 2.12 |
Handicap prediction
Lech (+1) is 1.74, while Bayer (+1) is 2.01. The lower odds on Lech's handicap indicate a slight market preference for that option.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.74 | 1 | 2.01 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.53 has shorter odds than Both teams to score — No at 2.45, meaning the market considers it more likely that both sides will score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.53 |
| No | 2.45 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
163/100
|
17/100
|
13/100
|
| William Hill |
81/50
|
9/50
|
3/25
|
| 888sport |
81/50
|
9/50
|
3/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Lech — 1 goal; Bayer — 2 goals.
Lech team total goals
For Lech's team total, Under 0.5 goals is 2.93 and Over 0.5 goals is 1.35. On the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is 1.92 and Over 1 goal is 1.80; another row for the same line gives 5.25 for Under 1 goal and 1.12 for Over 1 goal.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.93 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 1.92 | 1 | 1.80 |
| 5.25 | 1 | 1.12 |
Bayer team total goals
For Bayer's team total, Under 0.5 goals is offered at 5.70 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.09. On the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is 2.46 compared with 1.49 for Over 1.5 goals. The odds are almost equal on the 2-goal line: Under 2 goals is 1.85 and Over 2 goals is 1.87. On the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is 1.48 and Over 2.5 goals is 2.49.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.70 | 0.5 | 1.09 |
| 2.46 | 1.5 | 1.49 |
| 1.85 | 2 | 1.87 |
| 1.48 | 2.5 | 2.49 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Milos Milanovic (Serbia)
Matches — 7 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.3;
Matches with a red card — 0 of 7;
Matches with a penalty — 5 of 7.
