Odds overview
Lech Poznan are clear favourites: the home win is priced at 1.60, compared with 4.15 for a draw and 5.10 for an away win. Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 is preferred to under 2.5 goals at 2.10 in the main total market. In the handicap market, Thun (+1.5) at 1.45 has stronger support than Lech Poznan (-1.5) at 2.50; the prices are closer on the one-goal line — Thun (+1) at 1.77 and Lech Poznan (-1) at 1.97. Draw No Bet is priced at 1.23 for Lech Poznan and 3.60 for Thun.
Why Lech Poznan are favourites for the match
Bookmakers give the hosts a clear edge: a Lech Poznan win is priced at 1.60, the draw at 4.15 and a Thun win at 5.10.
Lech Poznan have been performing confidently in the current Europa League qualifiers and thrashed Vikingur 5:0 away from home in their most recent European match.
Thun lost 2:3 in a recent European fixture and played a Swiss Cup match four days before the game in Poznan, which will create additional scheduling difficulties.
Lech Poznan are unbeaten in the domestic league so far and have conceded only once in three rounds, while Thun have won just one of their three matches and have already conceded 11 goals.
Form and Line-up Lech Poznan
The Poznan side have improved their home results: on 6 August, they beat Klaksvik 1:0 in the Europa League, before recording a confident 3:0 clean-sheet victory over Piast in the Polish league on 9 August. At their home stadium, Lech Poznan have lost only to Aarhus (1:4 after extra time) in European competition, while they have avoided defeat in their other nine previous matches.
Key numbers:
Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the previous 5 meetings.
Lech Poznan scored first in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Fewer than 4 yellow cards were shown in 7 of the previous 9 matches involving the Polish side.
Probable Lech Poznan line-up (4-4-2): Mateusz Lis — Joel Pereira, Mateusz Skrzypczak, Wojciech Monka, Michal Gurgul — Patrik Walemark, Radoslaw Murawski, Antoni Kozubal, Daniel Hakans — Yannick Agnero, Luis Palma.
Absentees: Leo Bengtsson, Filip Jagiello, Kamil Jakobczuk, Ali Gholizadeh (all injured).
Form and Line-up Thun
Thun made a poor start to August: they lost to Young Boys (0:6) in the second round of the Swiss league, but bounced back in the Europa League by beating Vikingur (3:0). However, two painful defeats followed — 2:4 against Basel in the domestic league and 2:3 in the return leg against Vikingur. Their latest match came in the Swiss Cup, where Thun had no problems and thrashed Saxon Sport (6:0).
Key numbers:
Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 consecutive matches.
Fewer than 4 yellow cards were shown in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Fewer than 10 corners were taken in 4 of Thun's last 5 matches.
Probable Thun line-up (4-4-2): Niklas Steffen — Fabio Fehr, Jan Alexander Bamert, Marco Burki, Michael Heule — Nils Ramiro Reichmuth, Justin Roth, Nassim-Othman Zoukit, Valmir Matoshi — Marc Gutbub, Brighton Andy Labeau.
Absentees: Matthias Kaita, Genis Montolio (both injured).
Team chances
Home win: average odds of 1.60, a no-margin price of 1.70 and a probability of 58.8%. The draw is offered at 4.15, with a no-margin price of 4.41 and a probability of 22.7%; the away win is 5.10, with a no-margin price of 5.42 and a probability of 18.5%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average no-margin odds | No-margin probability |
Lech Poznan to win | 1.60 | 1.70 | 58.8% |
Draw | 4.15 | 4.41 | 22.7% |
Thun to win | 5.10 | 5.42 | 18.5% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, under 2.5 goals is priced at 2.10, while over 2.5 goals is 1.70, highlighting a scenario with three or more goals. At 3.5, by contrast, the market rates under 3.5 goals at 1.45 lower than over 3.5 goals at 2.55.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.10 | 1.70 |
3.5 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
Handicap prediction
Lech Poznan (-1.5) is available at 2.50, while Thun (+1.5) is 1.45. On the adjacent lines, Lech Poznan (-1) is priced at 1.97 and Thun (+1) at 1.77. In the Draw No Bet market, the odds are 1.23 for Lech Poznan and 3.60 for Thun.
Home | Handicap | Away |
2.50 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.45 |
1.97 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 1.77 |
1.23 | 0 | 3.60 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is priced at 1.72, while both teams to score - No is 2.05. The lower price on Yes indicates that goals from both teams are considered somewhat more likely.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.72 |
No | 2.05 |
Double chance prediction
1X is offered at 1.15, 12 at 1.20 and X2 at 2.25. The market rates outcomes without a Thun win significantly more highly than their double chance.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.15 | 1.20 | 2.25 |
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Lech Poznan — 1.5 goals, Thun — 1 goal.
Lech Poznan team total
Lech Poznan: under 0.5 goals — 5.90, over 0.5 goals — 1.08; under 1 goal — 4.15, over 1 goal — 1.17. At the 1.5 line, the prices are 2.10 for under and 1.65 for over, while at the 2-goal line they are 1.63 for under and 2.15 for over.
Under | Team total | Over |
5.90 | 0.5 | 1.08 |
4.15 | 1 | 1.17 |
2.10 | 1.5 | 1.65 |
1.63 | 2 | 2.15 |
Thun team total
Thun: under 0.5 goals is offered at 2.40, over 0.5 goals at 1.50. At the 1-goal line, under is 1.55 compared with 2.30 for over, while at the 1.5 line, under is 1.25 and over is 3.45.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.40 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
1.55 | 1 | 2.30 |
1.25 | 1.5 | 3.45 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Sebastian Gishamer (Austria)
Matches — 9 (international fixtures, 2025-2026);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 3.4;
Matches with red cards — 0 of 9;
Matches with penalties — 3 of 9.
