Odds overview
Sunderland are clear favourites: a Sunderland win is available at 1.68, compared with 4.80 for Lech Poznań and 4.10 for a draw. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.00. For the handicap (0) market, Lech Poznań are at 3.40 and Sunderland at 1.27.
Why Sunderland are favourites
Bookmakers favour the visitors: Sunderland are available to win at 1.68, a draw at 4.10 and a Lech Poznań win at 4.80.
- The English club have defended reliably in European competition: Sunderland concede just 0.5 goals per game on average, the third-lowest figure among the UEFA Europa League's 36 participants.
- The hosts play open football, reflected in the overall goal tally: Lech Poznań's matches average 4.17 goals — the third-highest figure in the competition.
Form and Line-up Lech Poznań
Lech Poznań responded quickly to a heavy European defeat by Bayer Leverkusen, bouncing back with a convincing domestic win over Korona Kielce. Head coach Niels Frederiksen singled out their strong start and clinical finishing.
Lech Poznań must also cope with a crowded schedule: they have very little time to recover fully between the Korona Kielce game and the match against Sunderland.
- In 9 of Lech Poznań's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Europa League, their opponents took fewer than 5.5 corners.
- In 8 of Lech Poznań's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Europa League, the two teams had more than 24.5 shots combined.
- In 9 of Lech Poznań's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Europa League, they received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards.
Probable Lech Poznań line-up (4-3-3): Mateusz Lis, Joel Pereira, Mateusz Skrzypczak, Terry Yegbe, Michał Gurgul, Radosław Murawski, Antoni Kozubal, Pablo Rodríguez, Patrik Wålemark, Mikael Ishak, Luis Palma
Form and Line-up Sunderland
Sunderland approach this round after an away defeat to Bournemouth, having played much of that match with a player fewer following an early sending-off.
There are also problems in attack: with Brian Brobbey injured, Timur Tuterov started at centre-forward in the previous game, making his first Premier League start.
- In 8 of Sunderland's last 10 away matches in all competitions, there were no more than 10.5 corners in total.
- In 8 of Sunderland's last 10 matches in all competitions, their opponents took fewer than 5.5 corners.
- In 8 of Sunderland's last 10 matches in all competitions, the two teams committed more than 21.5 fouls combined.
Probable Sunderland line-up (5-4-1): Robin Roefs, Trai Hume, Nordi Mukiele, Omar Alderete, Kevin Danso, Reinildo Mandava, Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki, Chris Rigg, Enzo Le Fée, Timur Tuterov
The teams' chances
On a margin-free basis, Sunderland have a 56.8% chance of winning, with average odds of 1.68 and fair odds of 1.76. A draw has a 23.3% chance, with corresponding odds of 4.10 and 4.29. Lech Poznań have a 19.9% chance, with odds of 4.80 and 5.03 respectively.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznań to win | 4.80 | 5.03 | 19.9% |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.29 | 23.3% |
| Sunderland to win | 1.68 | 1.76 | 56.8% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.00. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 goals is shorter at 1.40, compared with 2.75 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| 3.5 | 1.40 | 2.75 |
Handicap betting
Lech Poznań (-1.5) are available at 8.50, well above Sunderland (-1.5) at 2.70. At the +1.5 handicap, the odds are 1.40 for Lech Poznań (+1.5) and 1.04 for Sunderland (+1.5). At -1, Lech Poznań (-1) are offered at 7.30 and Sunderland (-1) at 2.18; at +1, the odds are 1.68 and 1.05 respectively. At a handicap of 0, Sunderland (0) are shorter at 1.27 than Lech Poznań (0) at 3.40.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 8.50 | -1.5 | 2.70 |
| 1.40 | 1.5 | 1.04 |
| 7.30 | -1 | 2.18 |
| 1.68 | 1 | 1.05 |
| 3.40 | 0 | 1.27 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score – Yes at 1.78 is shorter than Both teams to score – No at 1.98, so the market considers goals from both sides more likely.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.78 |
| No | 1.98 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
23/20
|
11/50
|
9/50
|
| William Hill |
6/5
|
11/50
|
9/50
|
| 888sport |
6/5
|
11/50
|
9/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Lech Poznań — 1 goal; Sunderland — 1.5 goals.
Lech Poznań team goals
For Lech Poznań's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.53 is shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.40. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.62 is shorter than Over 1 goal at 2.25; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals is 1.28 compared with 3.35 for Over 1.5 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 | 0.5 | 1.53 |
| 1.62 | 1 | 2.25 |
| 1.28 | 1.5 | 3.35 |
Sunderland team goals
For Sunderland's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.11 and Over 1 goal at 1.20 are considerably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 5.20 and Under 1 goal at 3.95. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 goals at 1.75 is shorter than Under 1.5 goals at 2.00, while at 2 goals, Under 2 goals at 1.52 is favoured over Over 2 goals at 2.45.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.20 | 0.5 | 1.11 |
| 3.95 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 2.00 | 1.5 | 1.75 |
| 1.52 | 2 | 2.45 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Balázs Berke (Hungary)
Matches — 7 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.7;
Matches with red cards — 0 out of 7;
Matches with penalties — 3 out of 7.
