Odds overview
Leeds United are slight favourites: they are available at 2.35 to win, compared with 2.90 for Manchester United, while a draw is 3.60. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals is favoured over Under 2.5 goals — 1.65 versus 2.25. At handicap (0), Leeds United are quoted at 1.73 and Manchester United at 2.10.
Why Leeds United are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: a Leeds United win is offered at 2.35, a draw at 3.60 and a Manchester United win at 2.90.
• The hosts have been reliable at home: in their last 10 Premier League home matches, no visiting side has scored more than one goal at Elland Road.
• The visitors face a tight schedule: Manchester United played a UEFA Champions League match in Madrid on 13 October, leaving just five days between fixtures.
• Last season, Leeds United pulled off a surprise 2:1 win at Old Trafford, when Michael Carrick was already managing Manchester United.
Form and Line-up Leeds United
On 10 October 2026, Leeds United lost 1:2 to Arsenal in London in a Premier League match. Daniel Farke's side have not faced any other top clubs this season. A fairly favourable opening schedule has helped Leeds United reach seventh place in the table.
- Leeds United took more than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 Premier League home matches.
- Leeds United were caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in 9 of their last 10 Premier League home matches.
- Leeds United had more than 12.5 shots in 8 of their last 10 Premier League home matches.
Probable Leeds United line-up (3-4-2-1): James Trafford, Jayden Bogle, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Ethan Ampadu, Tarik Muharemović, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Anton Stach, Noah Okafor, Ao Tanaka, James Justin, Nico Elvedi
Absentees: Joe Rodon, Daniel James, Mateo Joseph (injured)
Form and Line-up Manchester United
On 13 October 2026, Manchester United lost 0:2 to Atlético Madrid in the second round of the UEFA Champions League. The visitors conceded the first goal just 50 seconds into the match. Michael Carrick left Matheus Cunha out for most of the game, while Patrick Dorgu and Luke Shaw, both important to attacks down the flanks, were injured. Neither left-back will be available to Manchester United in Yorkshire, so that area could be a weakness.
- Manchester United's opponents were caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in 9 of United's last 10 Premier League away matches.
- There were fewer than 10.5 shots on target in 9 of Manchester United's last 10 Premier League away matches.
- Under 3.5 goals landed in 8 of Manchester United's last 10 Premier League away matches.
Probable Manchester United line-up (4-2-3-1): Senne Lammens, Leny Yoro, Harry Maguire, Lisandro Martínez, Diogo Dalot, Carlos Baleba, Bruno Fernandes, Youri Tielemans, Amad Diallo, Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha
Absentees: Patrick Dorgu, Luke Shaw, Noussair Mazraoui, Manuel Ugarte, Benjamin Sesko, Tom Heaton (injured)
The teams' chances
Without the bookmaker's margin, Leeds United have a 40.6% chance of winning at fair odds of 2.46, compared with 32.9% and 3.04 for Manchester United; the draw is rated at 26.5% and 3.77. The corresponding market odds are 2.35, 2.90 and 3.60.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United to win | 2.35 | 2.46 | 40.6% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.77 | 26.5% |
| Manchester United to win | 2.90 | 3.04 | 32.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 is offered at 1.65 versus 2.25 for Under 2.5, suggesting expectations of a high-scoring match. At 3.5 goals, by contrast, Under 3.5 at 1.52 is considerably shorter than Over 3.5 at 2.45.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.25 | 1.65 |
| 3.5 | 1.52 | 2.45 |
Handicap prediction
Leeds United (-1.5) and Manchester United (-1.5) are offered at long odds of 4.00 and 4.70 respectively. Leeds United (+1.5) are at 1.13 and Manchester United (+1.5) at 1.20; at the -1 handicap line, the odds are 3.30 for Leeds United (-1) and 4.10 for Manchester United (-1), while at the +1 line they are 1.18 and 1.30. At handicap (0), Leeds United at 1.73 are favoured over Manchester United at 2.10.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.00 | -1.5 | 4.70 |
| 1.13 | 1.5 | 1.20 |
| 3.30 | -1 | 4.10 |
| 1.18 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.73 | 0 | 2.10 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.55 looks considerably more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.40; the latter requires at least one team to fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.55 |
| No | 2.40 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Leeds United — 1.5 goals; Manchester United — 1.5 goals.
Leeds United team goals
For Leeds United's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.17 is strongly favoured over Under 0.5 at 4.20, while Over 1 is 1.35 versus 3.00 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are close: Under 1.5 is 1.80 and Over 1.5 is 1.95. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.35 and Over 2 is 3.00.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 3.00 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.80 | 1.5 | 1.95 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 3.00 |
Manchester United team goals
For Manchester United's team goals, Over 0.5 is offered at 1.25 versus 3.65 for Under 0.5, while Over 1 is 1.50 versus 2.50 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 at 1.62 is favoured over Over 1.5 at 2.20; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.25 and Over 2 is 3.65.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.65 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.50 | 1 | 1.50 |
| 1.62 | 1.5 | 2.20 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.65 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Darren England (England)
Matches — 27 (Premier League, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.2;
Matches with a red card — 3 of 27;
Matches with a penalty — 3 of 27.
