Odds overview
Leeds have a slight edge in the 1X2 market: a home win is available at around 2.40, an away win at 2.90, and the draw at 3.50. In the standard totals market, Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.80 looks more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.02. In the main handicap market, Leeds Draw No Bet at 1.75 is shorter than Newcastle Draw No Bet at 2.10.
Why Leeds are favourites
Bookmakers give the home side a slight edge: Leeds to win is quoted at 2.40, Newcastle to win at 2.90, and the draw at 3.50.
• In 9 of their last 10 Premier League home matches, Leeds' opponents have scored no more than once, showing the team's defensive reliability at Elland Road.
• Newcastle have been modest scorers away from home: in 8 of their last 10 Premier League away matches, they have scored no more than once.
Form and Line-up Leeds
Leeds recently lost 3:6 to Chelsea in the League Cup despite leading 1:0 at half-time. Daniel Farke's coaching staff made eight changes to the starting line-up, so the heavy defeat with a rotated side does not indicate a systemic weakness in the first-choice defence.
Key numbers:
• Leeds have taken at least five corners in 9 of their last 10 Premier League home matches.
• In 9 of their last 10 Premier League home games, Leeds have received no more than two yellow cards.
• No more than three goals have been scored in six of Leeds' last seven Premier League home matches.
Probable Leeds line-up (3-5-2): James Trafford – Tarik Muharemovic, Nico Elvedi, James Justin – Jayden Bogle, Ethan Ampadu, Anton Stach, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Ao Tanaka – Noah Okafor, Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Absentees: Ilia Gruev, Joe Rodon, Mateo Joseph (injured)
Form and Line-up Newcastle
Newcastle beat Millwall 1:0 in the League Cup this week thanks to Joe Willock's winning goal in the 81st minute. In the league, Matthias Jaissle's side rescued a draw against Bournemouth at home in the previous round with an 88th-minute goal, having come back from 0:2 down. They are currently a couple of places above Leeds: seventh against ninth.
Key numbers:
• In Newcastle's last 10 Premier League away matches, their opponents have been caught offside no more than twice.
• No more than three goals have been scored in 9 of Newcastle's last 10 Premier League away games.
• Newcastle's opponents have committed at least 11 fouls in each of their last 10 Premier League matches.
Probable Newcastle line-up (4-2-3-1): Lukas Hornicek – Amar Dedic, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Lewis Hall – Nico Gonzalez, Lewis Miley – Anthony Elanga, Joe Willock, Harvey Barnes – Yoane Wissa
Absentees: Dan Burn, William Osula, Joelinton (injured)
Team chances
Leeds to win is quoted at 2.40; the fair odds are 2.51 and the probability is 39.8%. The figures for the draw are 3.50, 3.67 and 27.3%, while Newcastle to win is at 2.90, 3.04 and 32.9% respectively. Leeds are slight favourites, but the chances of all three outcomes remain relatively close.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
Leeds to win | 2.40 | 2.51 | 39.8% |
Draw | 3.50 | 3.67 | 27.3% |
Newcastle to win | 2.90 | 3.04 | 32.9% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.02 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.80, so the market rates a higher-scoring scenario slightly more highly. At the 3.5 line, Under is quoted at 1.40 against 2.70 for Over: four or more goals look considerably less likely.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.02 | 1.80 |
3.5 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Handicap prediction
Leeds (-1.5) is at 4.30 and Newcastle (-1.5) at 4.80. The odds for Leeds (+1.5) and Newcastle (+1.5) are close: 1.13 and 1.16. At the -1 line, Leeds (-1) is available at 3.65 against 4.15 for Newcastle (-1); at the +1 line, Leeds (+1) is at 1.17 and Newcastle (+1) at 1.25. Leeds Draw No Bet at 1.75 is shorter than Newcastle Draw No Bet at 2.10.
Home | Handicap | Away |
4.30 | -1.5 | 4.80 |
1.13 | 1.5 | 1.16 |
3.65 | -1 | 4.15 |
1.17 | 1 | 1.25 |
1.75 | 0 | 2.10 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is available at 1.63, while Both teams to score - No is at 2.20. The shorter odds on Yes mean that a goal exchange is considered more likely than a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.63 |
No | 2.20 |
Double chance prediction
Double chance 12 is quoted at 1.33, 1X at 1.45 and X2 at 1.60. The market rates the absence of a draw slightly more highly, while 1X is marginally preferred among the options that include a draw.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.45 | 1.33 | 1.60 |
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Leeds — 1.5 goals, Newcastle — 1 goal.
Leeds team total
Leeds team total: Under 0.5 goals is at 3.95 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.20; a Leeds goal is rated considerably more likely. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is at 2.65 against 1.43 for Over 1; at 1.5, Under 1.5 is at 1.67 and Over 1.5 at 2.15. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is quoted at 1.25 and Over 2 at 3.50.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.95 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
2.65 | 1 | 1.43 |
1.67 | 1.5 | 2.15 |
1.25 | 2 | 3.50 |
Newcastle team total
Newcastle team total: Under 0.5 goals is available at 3.30 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.28. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is quoted at 2.30 against 1.60 for Over 1; at 1.5, Under 1.5 at 1.55 looks more likely than Over 1.5 at 2.40.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.30 | 0.5 | 1.28 |
2.30 | 1 | 1.60 |
1.55 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Michael Salisbury (England)
Matches – 15 (Premier League, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 22;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows – 4.2;
Matches with red cards – 1 of 15;
Matches with penalties – 5 of 15.
