Why Levski Sofia Are Favourites for the Match
The difference in the prices speaks for itself: 1.60 on the hosts against 5.60 on the visitors. That is a margin of more than three and a half times, and it is based on more than just home advantage.
Georgi Asparuhov Stadium. Four wins in four home matches this season, with both home qualifiers won to nil.
Squad value. EUR37.03 million against Kairat Almaty's EUR9.2 million, and after Jorginho's injury the visitors' valuation has dropped to EUR8.2 million.
Coach. Julio Velazquez is 44, has worked at Udinese and Alaves, and in the spring led Levski Sofia to their 27th league title — their first in 17 years.
Current form. Three wins in three rounds of the Bulgarian league, including a 3:0 against Septemvri in which the attacking leaders only came on as substitutes.
The opponent's personnel situation. Kairat Almaty have lost two first-choice forwards: Dastan Satpaev has moved to Chelsea, while Jorginho has suffered a cruciate ligament tear.
Form and Line-up Levski Sofia
The Sofia side came through qualifying without a slip-up. Borac Banja Luka were beaten 5:1 on aggregate: a draw (1:1) away and a rout (4:0) at home, where Reinaldo scored twice and provided an assist. Universitatea Craiova proved tougher — 1:0 in Sofia and 2:2 in Romania, 3:2 on aggregate. Levski Sofia conceded in both away matches and kept clean sheets in both home games.
In the Bulgarian league, the team are first with a perfect record after three rounds. Their latest game was a 3:0 against Septemvri on 1 August. Velazquez deliberately protected his core players: Kristian Dimitrov stayed on the bench, while El Mehdi El Moubarik, Armstrong Oko-Flex and Everton Bala only came on as substitutes.
Their style is possession, a high line and quick attacks through the flanks. Their strength is set-piece conversion and density in the middle. Their weakness is that same high line, which exposes space behind the defenders. The club kept the core of the squad in the summer, and their most expensive assets are Maicon and Venezuela defender Christian Makoun, both valued at EUR3.5 million.
The club have solid European experience, but it is old. The 2006/07 Champions League group stage ended with a last-place finish against opponents of the calibre of Chelsea, Barcelona and Werder Bremen. Levski Sofia have not gone beyond qualifying for the last 16 years.
Key numbers for Levski Sofia:
4 wins in 4 home matches this season in all competitions.
2.75 goals on average per match this season.
In 5 of their last 6 home European matches, the team have not conceded.
Probable Levski Sofia line-up (4-2-3-1): Svetoslav Vutsov — Aldair Neves, Kristian Dimitrov, Christian Makoun, Nikola Serafimov — El Mehdi El Moubarik, Serginho — Armstrong Oko-Flex, Everton Bala, Mazire Soula — Reinaldo.
Absentees: Radoslav Kirilov, Oliver Kamdem, Stipe Vulikic, Mustapha Sangare — all injured.
Doubtful: Akram Bouras — left thigh injury sustained in the match against Septemvri. Maicon — injury after the return game against Universitatea Craiova.
Form and Line-up Kairat Almaty
The Almaty side are operating on two fronts this season and are doing so confidently in both. In the first qualifying round, they got past Sutjeska 4:1 on aggregate: 2:1 at home with goals from Lucas Africo and Marc Gual in the 93rd minute, and 0:2 away. The second round was nervy. Omonia won in Nicosia (1:0), and in Almaty Kairat Almaty responded with the same score thanks to Edmilson's goal from a Luis Mata assist in the 37th minute, before penalties decided everything — 6:5.
In the Kazakhstan Premier League, the team are second: 45 points after 20 rounds, goal difference 39-14, one point behind Ordabasy. The form is impressive: nine wins in their last 10 matches. Kairat Almaty had no league round last weekend, and that gave them a week to recover after extra time against the Cypriots.
Their game plan is a compact mid-block and quick transitions through the flanks. Their strength is character in two-legged ties and Temirlan Anarbekov's reliability in goal. Their weakness is finishing. Without Jorginho, who had scored nine goals before his knee injury, the cutting edge in the final phase has dropped noticeably, and that was already clear in the return meeting with Omonia.
The squad weakened in the summer. Dastan Satpaev went to Chelsea, and Jorginho is out until the end of the season. Rafael Urazbakhtin is not promising new signings and is relying on the group he has. They have experience: last autumn Kairat Almaty played in the league phase of the Champions League for the first time in their history — 0:5 against Real Madrid, 1:4 against Sporting CP and a goalless draw with Pafos.
Key numbers for Kairat Almaty:
9 wins in their last 10 matches in all competitions.
In 9 of their last 12 away matches in the Champions League, there have been at least two goals in normal time.
1.75 goals on average per match this season.
Probable Kairat Almaty line-up (4-1-4-1): Temirlan Anarbekov — Alexandr Mrynskiy, Aleksandr Martynovich, Lucas Africo, Luis Mata — Damir Kassabulat — Oiva Jukkola, Jaakko Oksanen, Gustavo Mendonca, Lev Kurgin — Marc Gual.
Absentees: Jorginho — cruciate ligament tear in his knee.
Who Will Referee the Match
Donatas Rumsas (Lithuania)
Matches — 10 (international fixtures, 2025-2026);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.4;
Matches with red cards — 1 out of 10;
Matches with penalties — 2 out of 10.
