Odds overview
Azerbaijan are clear favourites: an away win is available at 1.28, while the draw is quoted at 5.00 and a Liechtenstein win at 11.00. In the 2.5-goal totals market, Under 2.5 at 1.70 is favoured over Over 2.5 at 2.06. Liechtenstein (1.5) are available at 1.81 in the handicap market, and Azerbaijan (1.5) at 1.93.
Why Azerbaijan are favourites
Bookmakers favour Azerbaijan: an away win is available at 1.28. The draw is offered at 5.00, while a Liechtenstein win is quoted at 11.00.
- In their three UEFA Nations League matches this season, Azerbaijan have conceded an average of just 0.33 goals per game and have not lost.
- Liechtenstein have not won any of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Azerbaijan have not lost to Liechtenstein in their last five meetings.
Form and Line-up Liechtenstein
On 5 October 2026, Liechtenstein lost 0:2 to Gibraltar in a friendly. A few days earlier, on 1 October, they drew 0:0 with Azerbaijan. Before that, the hosts had also lost 0:2 to Lithuania.
- Liechtenstein have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Liechtenstein have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in their last 10 competitive matches.
Probable Liechtenstein line-up (5-3-2): Benjamin Büchel, Nicolas Hasler, Jonas Weissenhofer, Lars Traber, Jens Hofer, Maximilian Göppel, Marcel Büchel, Alessio Hasler, Aron Sele, Alessandro Lo Russo, Kenny Kindle.
Form and Line-up Azerbaijan
On 4 October 2026, Azerbaijan beat Lithuania 1:0. Earlier, on 27 September, the teams drew 1:1. Between those matches, Azerbaijan played out a goalless draw with Liechtenstein (0:0).
- Azerbaijan have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Azerbaijan's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
Probable Azerbaijan line-up (3-4-3): Emil Balayev, Rahil Mammadov, Badavi Hüseynov, Rahman Dashdamirov, Tellur Mutallimov, Abdulakh Khaybulayev, Aleksey Isayev, Rüfat Abbasov, Toral Bayramov, Mahir Emreli, Oruc Mammadov.
Teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Liechtenstein an 8.5% chance of winning, with average odds of 11.00 and fair odds of 11.79. The draw has an 18.7% chance, with average odds of 5.00 and fair odds of 5.36. Azerbaijan's chance of winning is estimated at 72.9%, with odds of 1.28 in the betting market and fair odds of 1.37.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liechtenstein win | 11.00 | 11.79 | 8.5% |
| Draw | 5.00 | 5.36 | 18.7% |
| Azerbaijan win | 1.28 | 1.37 | 72.9% |
Total goals betting analysis
At the 2.5-goal total, Under 2.5 is available at 1.70 and Over 2.5 at 2.06. For the 2-goal line, Under 2 is quoted at 2.30 compared with 1.56 for Over 2. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 is available at 1.24 and Over 3.5 at 3.60.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.70 | 2.06 |
| 2 | 2.30 | 1.56 |
| 3.5 | 1.24 | 3.60 |
Handicap betting analysis
Of the two handicap options, Liechtenstein (1.5) at 1.81 have slightly shorter odds than Azerbaijan (1.5) at 1.93. At the 1-goal handicap line, Liechtenstein (1) at 2.60 are at considerably longer odds than Azerbaijan (1) at 1.44.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.81 | 1.5 | 1.93 |
| 2.60 | 1 | 1.44 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
5/2
|
7/50
|
1/50
|
| William Hill |
5/2
|
9/50
|
1/25
|
| LeoVegas |
12/5
|
4/25
|
3/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting analysis
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: 0.5 goals for Liechtenstein and 2 goals for Azerbaijan.
Liechtenstein team total goals
For Liechtenstein, Under 0.5 team goals is available at 1.49 and Over 0.5 at 2.46. At the 1-goal line, the first pair offers Under 1 at 1.08 and Over 1 at 6.20; in the second pair, Under 1 is 4.60 and Over 1 is 1.15.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.49 | 0.5 | 2.46 |
| 1.08 | 1 | 6.20 |
| 4.60 | 1 | 1.15 |
Azerbaijan team total goals
For Azerbaijan, Under 0.5 team goals is quoted at 5.40 and Over 0.5 at 1.10. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is available at 2.28 and Over 1.5 at 1.57; at the 2-goal mark, the respective odds are 1.78 and 1.95. For the 2.5-goal total, Under 2.5 is quoted at 1.40 and Over 2.5 at 2.73.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.40 | 0.5 | 1.10 |
| 2.28 | 1.5 | 1.57 |
| 1.78 | 2 | 1.95 |
| 1.40 | 2.5 | 2.73 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Kristo Tohver (Estonia)
Matches — 7 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 5.3;
Matches with a red card — 3 out of 7;
Matches with a penalty — 2 out of 7.
