Odds overview
Real Sociedad are clear favourites: an away win is available at 1.50, while a home win and a draw are around 5.90 and 4.70 respectively. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. In the handicap markets, Lillestrøm (-1.5) at 2.30 is comparable to Real Sociedad (+1.5) at 1.60, Lillestrøm (-1) at 1.80 is shorter than Real Sociedad (+1) at 2.03, and at handicap (0), Real Sociedad at 1.18 are much shorter than Lillestrøm at 4.10.
Why Real Sociedad are favourites
The bookmakers' odds give the visitors a clear advantage: a Real Sociedad win is offered at 1.50, compared with 4.70 for a draw and 5.90 for a Lillestrøm win.
- The Spanish club are favourites because of their superior quality, despite an unexpected 1:1 draw with Union Saint-Gilloise in the previous UEFA Europa League round, when the Basque side conceded an equaliser right at the end.
- Lillestrøm have to manage their resources carefully: before a recent away league match, the Norwegian side made five changes to their starting line-up from the UEFA Europa League game against Sparta Prague.
- Lillestrøm have won just two of their last seven matches in all competitions.
Form and Line-up Lillestrøm
In their latest league match, Lillestrøm won comfortably away at Sandefjord, 2:0, with goals from Thomas Lehne Olsen and Eric Bugale Kitolano effectively settling the contest in the first half. Their UEFA Europa League form has been less encouraging — a 1:2 defeat to Torrense and a 1:1 draw with Sparta Prague, in which Olsen equalised only in the 90+1st minute.
- Lillestrøm's only home match in the 2026/27 UEFA Europa League finished with Over 2.5 goals.
- Lillestrøm took more than 4.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
- More than 2.5 yellow cards were shown in 9 of Lillestrøm's last 10 home matches in all competitions.
Probable Lillestrøm line-up (4-3-3): Pontus Dahlberg, Lars Ranger, Ruben Gabrielsen, Stian Kristiansen, Yaw Paintsil, Ilir Ibrahimaj, Filip Ottosson, Gustav Nyheim, Daniel Bassi, Fredrik Gulbrandsen, Felix Va.
Absentees: Espen Bjørnsen Garnås, Camil Jebara (both injured).
Form and Line-up Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad have made a subdued start to this UEFA Europa League campaign: after two rounds, the Basque side sit 23rd with one draw against Union Saint-Gilloise (1:1) and one defeat to Bournemouth (1:2). Ahead of this European match, they beat Málaga (5:2) in La Liga, with Oyarzabal scoring twice.
- Fewer than 10.5 corners were taken in 9 of Real Sociedad's last 10 away UEFA Europa League matches.
- Real Sociedad committed more than 11.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 away UEFA Europa League matches.
- More than 3.5 yellow cards were shown in 8 of the Basque side's last 10 away UEFA Europa League matches.
Probable Real Sociedad line-up (4-4-2): Unai Marrero, Igor Zubeldia, Jon Martín, Mamadou Sarr, Sergio Gómez, Job Ochieng, Jon Gorrotxategi, Carlos Soler, Gonçalo Guedes, Mikel Oyarzabal, Luka Sučić.
Absentees: Jon Aramburu, Luken Beitia, Yangel Herrera, Álvaro Odriozola (all injured),
Team chances
A Real Sociedad win is offered at 1.50, with fair odds of 1.57 and a fair probability of 63.6%. For a draw, the corresponding figures are 4.70, 4.93 and 20.3%; for a Lillestrøm win, they are 5.90, 6.19 and 16.2%.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrøm win | 5.90 | 6.19 | 16.2% |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.93 | 20.3% |
| Real Sociedad win | 1.50 | 1.57 | 63.6% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. At 3.5 goals, the picture is reversed: Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.53, while Over 3.5 goals is 2.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.30 | 1.62 |
| 3.5 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
Handicap betting
Real Sociedad (+1.5) at 1.60 are shorter than Lillestrøm (-1.5) at 2.30. At the ±1 line, Lillestrøm (-1) are 1.80 and Real Sociedad (+1) are 2.03. The handicap (0) market strongly favours the visitors: Real Sociedad (0) are available at 1.18, compared with 4.10 for Lillestrøm (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2.30 | |
| 1.60 | 1.5 | |
| -1 | 1.80 | |
| 2.03 | 1 | |
| 4.10 | 0 | 1.18 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.72 looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.05, which would mean at least one team fails to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.72 |
| No | 2.05 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
2/1
|
7/50
|
1/10
|
| William Hill |
19/10
|
17/100
|
11/100
|
| 888sport |
19/10
|
17/100
|
11/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
The bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: 0.5 goals for Lillestrøm and 2 goals for Real Sociedad.
Lillestrøm team total goals
For Lillestrøm's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.57 is shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.30. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is 1.55 compared with 2.35 for Over 1 goal; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is 1.25 compared with 3.45 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.30 | 0.5 | 1.57 |
| 1.55 | 1 | 2.35 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.45 |
Real Sociedad team total goals
For Real Sociedad's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.05 is much shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 7.40. Over 1.5 goals is 1.50 compared with 2.50 for Under 1.5; at the 2-goal line, the odds are close — 1.85 for Under 2 goals and 1.90 for Over 2 goals. At 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 is shorter at 1.48, while Over 2.5 is 2.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.40 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
| 2.50 | 1.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.85 | 2 | 1.90 |
| 1.48 | 2.5 | 2.55 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Mohammad Al-Emara (Finland)
Matches — 10 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.7;
Matches with a red card — 1 out of 10;
Matches with a penalty — 4 out of 10.
