Odds overview
Real Sociedad are clear favourites: an away win is available at 1.50, while a home win and a draw are quoted at around 5.90 and 4.70 respectively. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. In the handicap markets, Lillestrøm (-1.5) at 2.30 is comparable to Real Sociedad (+1.5) at 1.60; Lillestrøm (-1) at 1.80 is shorter than Real Sociedad (+1) at 2.03; and at a handicap line of 0, Real Sociedad (0) at 1.18 are much shorter than Lillestrøm (0) at 4.10.
Why Real Sociedad are favourites
The bookmakers' odds give the visitors a clear advantage: a Real Sociedad win is offered at 1.50, compared with 4.70 for a draw and 5.90 for a Lillestrøm win.
- The Spanish club are favourites because of their superior quality, despite an unexpected 1:1 draw with Union Saint-Gilloise in the previous UEFA Europa League round, when the Basque side let victory slip away in the closing stages.
- Lillestrøm have to manage their resources carefully: before their recent away league match, the Norwegian side made five changes to their starting line-up from the UEFA Europa League match against Sparta Prague.
- Lillestrøm have won just two of their last seven matches in all competitions.
Form and Line-up Lillestrøm
In their latest league match, Lillestrøm comfortably beat Sandefjord 2:0 away from home, effectively settling the contest in the first half through goals from Thomas Lehne Olsen and Eric Bugale Kitolano. Their UEFA Europa League results have been less encouraging, however — a 1:2 defeat to Torrense and a 1:1 draw with Sparta Prague, in which Olsen did not equalise until the 90+1 minute.
- Lillestrøm's only home match in the 2026/27 UEFA Europa League ended with Over 2.5 goals.
- Lillestrøm have taken more than 4.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
- More than 2.5 yellow cards have been shown in 9 of Lillestrøm's last 10 home matches in all competitions.
Probable Lillestrøm line-up (4-3-3): Pontus Dahlberg, Lars Ranger, Ruben Gabrielsen, Stian Kristiansen, Yaw Paintsil, Ilir Ibrahimaj, Filip Ottosson, Gustav Nyheim, Daniel Bassi, Fredrik Gulbrandsen, Felix Va.
Absentees:Espen Bjørnsen Garnås, Camil Jebara (both injured).
Form and Line-up Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad have made a modest start to this UEFA Europa League campaign: after two rounds, the Basque side sit 23rd, with one draw against Union Saint-Gilloise (1:1) and one defeat to Bournemouth (1:2). Ahead of this European match, they beat Málaga 5:2 in La Liga, with Oyarzabal scoring twice.
- Fewer than 10.5 corners have been taken in 9 of Real Sociedad's last 10 away UEFA Europa League matches.
- Real Sociedad have committed more than 11.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 away UEFA Europa League matches.
- More than 3.5 yellow cards have been shown in 8 of the Basque side's last 10 away UEFA Europa League matches.
Probable Real Sociedad line-up (4-4-2): Unai Marrero, Igor Zubeldia, Jon Martín, Mamadou Sarr, Sergio Gómez, Job Ochieng, Jon Gorrotxategi, Carlos Soler, Gonçalo Guedes, Mikel Oyarzabal, Luka Sučić.
Absentees: Jon Aramburu, Luken Beitia, Yangel Herrera, Álvaro Odriozola (all injured),
The teams' chances
A Real Sociedad win is offered at 1.50, with fair odds of 1.57 and a fair probability of 63.6%. The corresponding figures are 4.70, 4.93 and 20.3% for a draw, and 5.90, 6.19 and 16.2% for a Lillestrøm win.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrøm win | 5.90 | 6.19 | 16.2% |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.93 | 20.3% |
| Real Sociedad win | 1.50 | 1.57 | 63.6% |
Total goals prediction
At a line of 2.5 goals, Over 2.5 at 1.62 is favoured over Under 2.5 at 2.30. At 3.5 goals, the picture is reversed: Under 3.5 is available at 1.53 and Over 3.5 at 2.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.30 | 1.62 |
| 3.5 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
Handicap prediction
Real Sociedad (+1.5) at 1.60 have shorter odds than Lillestrøm (-1.5) at 2.30. At the ±1 line, Lillestrøm (-1) are 1.80 and Real Sociedad (+1) are 2.03. The zero handicap strongly favours the visitors: Real Sociedad (0) are 1.18, compared with Lillestrøm (0) at 4.10.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2.30 | |
| 1.60 | 1.5 | |
| -1 | 1.80 | |
| 2.03 | 1 | |
| 4.10 | 0 | 1.18 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.72 looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.05, the outcome in which at least one team fails to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.72 |
| No | 2.05 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
3/2
|
9/50
|
13/100
|
| William Hill |
29/20
|
1/5
|
3/20
|
| 888sport |
29/20
|
1/5
|
7/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: 0.5 goals for Lillestrøm and 2 goals for Real Sociedad.
Lillestrøm team total goals
For Lillestrøm's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.57 is favoured over Under 0.5 at 2.30. At a line of 1 goal, Under 1 is 1.55 compared with 2.35 for Over 1; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is 1.25 compared with 3.45 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.30 | 0.5 | 1.57 |
| 1.55 | 1 | 2.35 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.45 |
Real Sociedad team total goals
For Real Sociedad's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.05 is much shorter than Under 0.5 at 7.40. Over 1.5 is 1.50 compared with 2.50 for Under 1.5; at a line of 2 goals, the odds are close — 1.85 for Under 2 and 1.90 for Over 2. At 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 is favoured at 1.48, while Over 2.5 is 2.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.40 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
| 2.50 | 1.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.85 | 2 | 1.90 |
| 1.48 | 2.5 | 2.55 |
