Odds overview
Lithuania are slight favourites at 2.50 to win, while the draw and an Azerbaijan win are both 3.10. In the main goals market, Under 2.5 at 1.50 is much shorter than Over 2.5 at 2.55. In the main handicap market, Lithuania Draw No Bet (0) at 1.70 is shorter than Azerbaijan Draw No Bet (0) at 2.15.
Why Lithuania are favourites
Bookmakers give the hosts a modest edge: Lithuania are offered at 2.50 to win, while the draw and an Azerbaijan win are both available at 3.10.
• Lithuania regularly limit their opponents' chances: in 9 of their last 10 Nations League matches, their opponents managed no more than four shots on target.
• Azerbaijan have struggled in attack away from home, scoring no more than one goal in 9 of their last 10 away games across all competitions.
Form and Line-up Lithuania
Lithuania won 2:0 away to Liechtenstein in the opening round of the Nations League, thanks to goals from Lukas Michelbrink and Artūr Dolžnikov. Both goals came after the break. The team have consistently played low-scoring matches in this competition, with fewer than 3.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 Nations League games.
- Lithuania committed more than 12.5 fouls in each of their last 10 Nations League matches.
- The combined number of shots by both teams was under 23.5 in 8 of Lithuania's last 10 Nations League matches.
- There were fewer than 9.5 corners in 8 of Lithuania's last 10 Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Džiugas Bartkus, Pijus Širvys, Kipras Kažukolovas, Edgaras Utkus, Artemijus Tutyškinas, Gvidas Gineitis, Modestas Vorobjovas, Lukas Michelbrink, Eligijus Jankauskas, Armandas Kučys, Justas Lasickas
Form and Line-up Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan did not play in the opening round of the Nations League because League D Group 2 has three teams. They used the break to play a friendly against Tajikistan — a 1:0 home win.
Over a longer run across all competitions, Azerbaijan have consistently won or drawn the offside count, doing so in 9 of their last 10 matches.
- Azerbaijan's opponents scored more than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches across all competitions.
- Azerbaijan's opponents committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
- The total number of offsides was under 3.5 in 8 of Azerbaijan's last 10 matches across all competitions.
Probable line-up (3-4-3): Shakhruddin Magomedaliyev, Elvin Badalov, Anton Krivotsyuk, Rahman Dashdamirov, Rakhil Mammadov, Tellur Mutallimov, Toral Bayramov, Abdulakh Khaybulayev, Emin Mahmudov, Anatoly Nuriyev, Renat Dadashov, Musa Qurbanly
The teams' chances
Lithuania are 2.50 to win, with fair odds of 2.61 and a 38.3% probability. The draw and an Azerbaijan win have identical figures: odds of 3.10, fair odds of 3.24 and a 30.9% probability.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania to win | 2.50 | 2.61 | 38.3% |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.24 | 30.9% |
| Azerbaijan to win | 3.10 | 3.24 | 30.9% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals at 1.50 is considerably shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.55. At a line of 2 goals, the odds are almost equal: Under 2 at 1.85 and Over 2 at 1.90. Under 3.5 is available at 1.13, compared with 4.80 for Over 3.5.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.50 | 2.55 |
| 2 | 1.85 | 1.90 |
| 3.5 | 1.13 | 4.80 |
Handicap prediction
Lithuania (-1.5) are offered at 5.40 and Azerbaijan (-1.5) at 6.30. The odds are much shorter for a +1.5 handicap: Lithuania (+1.5) are 1.07 and Azerbaijan (+1.5) are 1.10. Lithuania (-1) at 4.30 are shorter than Azerbaijan (-1) at 5.40, while Lithuania (+1) are 1.10 and Azerbaijan (+1) are 1.16. At a handicap of 0, Lithuania Draw No Bet (0) at 1.70 is shorter than Azerbaijan Draw No Bet (0) at 2.15.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.40 | -1.5 | 6.30 |
| 1.07 | 1.5 | 1.10 |
| 4.30 | -1 | 5.40 |
| 1.10 | 1 | 1.16 |
| 1.70 | 0 | 2.15 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — No at 1.68 is shorter than Both teams to score — Yes at 2.12, suggesting that at least one team failing to score is considered more likely.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.12 |
| No | 1.68 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
2/5
|
9/25
|
53/100
|
| 888sport |
9/25
|
9/25
|
1/2
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Lithuania — 1 goal; Azerbaijan — 1 goal.
Lithuania team total goals
Lithuania's team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.40 is shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.80. At a line of 1 goal, Under 1 and Over 1 are both 1.88. Under 1.5 at 1.35 is considerably shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.95.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.88 | 1 | 1.88 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 2.95 |
Azerbaijan team total goals
Azerbaijan's team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.50 is shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.50. At a line of 1 goal, Under 1 at 1.63 is shorter than Over 1 at 2.20. Under 1.5 is available at 1.30, compared with 3.25 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.63 | 1 | 2.20 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 3.25 |
