Lithuania vs Azerbaijan: prediction & betting odds 27 September 2026

Odds overview

Lithuania are slight favourites at 2.50 to win, while the draw and an Azerbaijan win are both available at 3.10. In the main goals market, Under 2.5 at 1.50 is markedly shorter than Over 2.5 at 2.55. In the main handicap market, Lithuania (0) at 1.70 are shorter than Azerbaijan (0) at 2.15.

Why Lithuania are favourites

Bookmakers give the hosts a modest edge: Lithuania are 2.50 to win, while the draw and an Azerbaijan win are both offered at 3.10.

• Lithuania regularly limit their opponents' chances: in 9 of their last 10 Nations League matches, their opponents managed no more than four shots on target.

• Azerbaijan have struggled to score away from home, managing no more than one goal in 9 of their last 10 away matches across all competitions.

Form and Line-up Lithuania

Lithuania beat Liechtenstein 2:0 away in the opening round of the Nations League, with goals from Lukas Michelbrink and Artūr Dolžnikov. Both goals came after the break. The team have consistently been involved in low-scoring games in this competition, with fewer than 3.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 Nations League matches.

• Lithuania committed more than 12.5 fouls in each of their last 10 Nations League matches.
• The two teams combined for fewer than 23.5 shots in 8 of Lithuania's last 10 Nations League matches.
• Fewer than 9.5 corners were taken in 8 of Lithuania's last 10 Nations League matches.

Probable line-up (4-3-3): Džiugas Bartkus, Pijus Širvys, Kipras Kažukolovas, Edgaras Utkus, Artemijus Tutyškinas, Gvidas Gineitis, Modestas Vorobjovas, Lukas Michelbrink, Eligijus Jankauskas, Armandas Kučys, Justas Lasickas

Form and Line-up Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan did not play in the opening round of the Nations League because League D Group 2 has three teams. They used the break to play a friendly against Tajikistan — a 1:0 home win. 

Over a longer run across all competitions, Azerbaijan have consistently won or drawn the offside count, doing so in 9 of their last 10 matches.

• Azerbaijan's opponents scored more than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches across all competitions.
• Azerbaijan's opponents committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
• There were fewer than 3.5 offsides in 8 of Azerbaijan's last 10 matches across all competitions.

Probable line-up (3-4-3): Shakhruddin Magomedaliyev, Elvin Badalov, Anton Krivotsyuk, Rahman Dashdamirov, Rakhil Mammadov, Tellur Mutallimov, Toral Bayramov, Abdulakh Khaybulayev, Emin Mahmudov, Anatoly Nuriyev, Renat Dadashov, Musa Qurbanly

Teams' chances

Lithuania are 2.50 to win, with fair odds of 2.61 and an implied probability of 38.3%. The draw and an Azerbaijan win have identical figures: odds of 3.10, fair odds of 3.24 and a probability of 30.9%.

Total goals prediction

Under 2.5 goals at 1.50 is markedly shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.55. At a line of 2 goals, the odds are almost level: Under 2 at 1.85 and Over 2 at 1.90. Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.13, compared with 4.80 for Over 3.5.

Handicap prediction

Lithuania (-1.5) are available at 5.40, while Azerbaijan (-1.5) are 6.30. The odds are considerably shorter for a +1.5 handicap: Lithuania (+1.5) are 1.07 and Azerbaijan (+1.5) are 1.10. Lithuania (-1) at 4.30 are shorter than Azerbaijan (-1) at 5.40, while Lithuania (+1) at 1.10 are shorter than Azerbaijan (+1) at 1.16. On the 0 handicap line, Lithuania (0) at 1.70 are shorter than Azerbaijan (0) at 2.15.

Both teams to score prediction

Both teams to score — No at 1.68 is shorter than Both teams to score — Yes at 2.12, suggesting that at least one team failing to score is considered the more likely outcome.

Double chance forecast

Bookmaker	1X	12	X2
Bet365	1/4	2/5	67/100
William Hill	33/100	2/5	57/100
888sport	3/10	2/5	3/5

Odds are current as of the material publication date

Team total goals prediction

Bookmakers have set the following team total goals lines for this match: Lithuania — 1 goal, Azerbaijan — 1 goal.

Lithuania team total goals

Lithuania team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.40 is shorter than Under 0.5 at 2.80. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 and Over 1 are both 1.88. Under 1.5 at 1.35 is markedly shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.95.

Azerbaijan team total goals

Azerbaijan team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.50 is shorter than Under 0.5 at 2.50. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 at 1.63 is shorter than Over 1 at 2.20. Under 1.5 is available at 1.30, compared with 3.25 for Over 1.5.

Who Will Referee the Match

Menelaos Antoniou (Cyprus)

Matches — 9 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);

Average fouls per match — 28;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 5.1;

Matches with a red card — 1 of 9;

Matches with a penalty — 3 of 9.