Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Arsenal are narrow favourites at 2.35, with Liverpool around 2.95 and the draw at 3.50. In the main total goals market, Over 2.5 is offered at 1.83, compared with 1.97 for Under 2.5. At handicap (0), Arsenal Draw No Bet at 1.70 has considerably shorter odds than Liverpool Draw No Bet at 2.15.
Why there is no clear favourite
Bookmakers favour Arsenal: a win for the London club is available at 2.35, the draw at 3.50 and a Liverpool win at 2.95.
- Arsenal have been consistently hard to beat, avoiding defeat in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Liverpool have scored an average of exactly 3.0 goals per game over their last five matches in all competitions.
- Arsenal and Liverpool are close in the table: the London club are second and the Merseyside club fourth.
Form and Line-up Liverpool
Liverpool beat Brighton & Hove Albion 2:0 in their last Premier League match, then overcame Chelsea 2:1 on penalties in the EFL Cup Round of 16. Their scoring has slowed compared with previous weeks: on 20 October, they beat Villarreal 4:3 in the UEFA Champions League.
- Liverpool have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 Premier League home matches, with four wins and five draws.
- Liverpool have scored at least one goal in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- In this Premier League season, Liverpool have most often conceded between the 61st and 75th minutes of matches (three of eight).
Probable Liverpool line-up (4-2-3-1): Alisson, Ronald Araújo, Jérémy Jacquet, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister, Bradley Barcola, Florian Wirtz, Cody Gakpo, Alexander Isak
Absentees: Dominik Szoboszlai, Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley, Víctor Muñoz, Jeremie Frimpong, Giovanni Leoni (injured)
Form and Line-up Arsenal
Arsenal suffered a shock EFL Cup Round of 16 exit to EFL League Two club Fleetwood Town (1:2 on penalties), amid woeful finishing despite 4.94 xG and Max Dowman's dismissal in the 85th minute. Things are better in the Premier League: they are level on points (21) with leaders Manchester City and beat Everton 2:0 in the latest round. An earlier 2:2 away draw with Bayern Munich is another positive.
- Arsenal have scored at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Arsenal's opponents have had fewer than 5.5 shots on target in each of Arsenal's last 10 Premier League away matches.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Arsenal's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable Arsenal line-up (4-2-3-1): David Raya, Ben White, Ezri Konsa, Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori, Declan Rice, Bruno Guimarães, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Martin Ødegaard, Ebere Eze, Kai Havertz
Absentees: William Saliba, Bukayo Saka, Christos Tzolis (injured), Max Dowman (suspended); Noni Madueke, Riccardo Calafiori (doubtful)
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Arsenal a 40.5% chance of winning, with fair odds of 2.47. Liverpool have a 32.3% chance at fair odds of 3.10, and the draw a 27.2% chance at 3.68; the actual odds are 2.35, 2.95 and 3.50 respectively.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to win | 2.95 | 3.10 | 32.3% |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.68 | 27.2% |
| Arsenal to win | 2.35 | 2.47 | 40.5% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 at 1.83 has shorter odds than Under 2.5 at 1.97. At 3.5 goals, by contrast, Under 3.5 is available at 1.38, while Over 3.5 is 2.80.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.97 | 1.83 |
| 3.5 | 1.38 | 2.80 |
Handicap prediction
Liverpool (-1.5) are offered at 5.00 and Arsenal (-1.5) at 4.30. At the +1.5 handicap line, the odds are close: Liverpool (+1.5) are 1.16 and Arsenal (+1.5) are 1.12. At +1, Liverpool (+1) are available at 1.25 against 1.16 for Arsenal (+1); at handicap (0), Arsenal Draw No Bet at 1.70 has shorter odds than Liverpool Draw No Bet at 2.15.
| Home team | Handicap | Away team |
|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | -1.5 | 4.30 |
| 1.16 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
| 4.30 | -1 | 3.60 |
| 1.25 | 1 | 1.16 |
| 2.15 | 0 | 1.70 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.65, while Both teams to score — No, meaning at least one team will fail to score, is available at 2.20.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.65 |
| No | 2.20 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
53/100
|
3/10
|
2/5
|
| 888sport |
57/100
|
3/10
|
2/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Liverpool — 1 goal; Arsenal — 1.5 goals.
Liverpool team total goals
For Liverpool, Over 0.5 goals at 1.28 has considerably shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 3.30. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 is offered at 1.60 against 2.25 for Under 1; at 1.5, Under 1.5 at 1.53 has shorter odds than Over 1.5 at 2.40.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.30 | 0.5 | 1.28 |
| 2.25 | 1 | 1.60 |
| 1.53 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Arsenal team total goals
For Arsenal, Over 0.5 goals is offered at 1.20 against 3.90 for Under 0.5. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.42 and Under 1 is 2.65; at 1.5, they are 2.15 and 1.67 respectively. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.25 has considerably shorter odds than Over 2 at 3.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.90 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.65 | 1 | 1.42 |
| 1.67 | 1.5 | 2.15 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.55 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Andy Madley (England)
Matches — 24 (Premier League, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.3;
Matches with a red card — 4 of 24;
Matches with a penalty — 5 of 24.
