Odds overview
Liverpool have a slight edge in the 1X2 market: Liverpool to win is available at 2.50, Chelsea to win at 2.60 and the draw at around 3.85. Over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.48, compared with 2.55 for Under 2.5. In the main handicap market, Liverpool (0) at 1.87 are marginally favoured over Chelsea (0) at 1.95.
Why there is no clear favourite
The bookmakers offer almost identical odds on the two sides to win: Liverpool are at 2.50, Chelsea at 2.60 and the draw at 3.85.
• Both clubs are missing key players: Liverpool are without Dominik Szoboszlai and possibly Florian Wirtz; Chelsea are without Cole Palmer, Emiliano Martínez and João Pedro.
• Squad rotation makes the match less predictable, and there is almost certain to be some.
• Four of the last five meetings between the sides in all competitions were decided by no more than one goal.
Form and Line-up Liverpool
Liverpool beat Brighton & Hove Albion 2:0 at home in their latest Premier League match. It was the Merseysiders' fourth consecutive win in all competitions, during which they have scored 14 goals. Andoni Iraola's side knocked out Tottenham Hotspur (3:1) in the previous round of the EFL Cup.
- Over 2.5 goals were scored in 9 of Liverpool's last 10 home matches in the EFL Cup.
- Under 3.5 yellow cards were shown in 8 of Liverpool's last 10 home matches in the EFL Cup.
- The combined total of shots on target exceeded 8.5 in 8 of Liverpool's last 10 home matches in the EFL Cup.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Alisson, Ronald Araújo, Virgil van Dijk, Jérémy Jacquet, Kostas Tsimikas, Trey Nyoni, Ryan Gravenberch, Rio Ngumoha, Alexis Mac Allister, Cody Gakpo, Lewis Koumas
Dominik Szoboszlai, Jeremie Frimpong, Hugo Ekitike, Giovanni Leoni, Conor Bradley (injured), Víctor Muñoz (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Chelsea
Chelsea lost 0:2 to Tottenham Hotspur in their previous league match, conceding the opening goal from a corner and going down to ten men in the second half when Cole Palmer was sent off in the 80th minute. Another member of their attacking trio, João Pedro, also has fitness problems. That significantly reduces the visitors' chances of winning at Anfield. In the previous round of the EFL Cup, Chelsea played out a high-scoring encounter with Leeds United at Stamford Bridge (6:3).
- Under 3.5 goals were scored in 8 of Chelsea's last 10 away matches in the EFL Cup.
- Chelsea took more than 12.5 shots in 8 of their last 10 away cup matches.
- Chelsea matched or exceeded their opponents' shots on target in 9 of their last 10 away EFL Cup matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Mike Penders, Josh Acheampong, Maxence Lacroix, Levi Colwill, Jorrel Hato, Moisés Caicedo, Jordan Henderson, Pedro Neto, Estêvão, Danny Welbeck, Morgan Rogers
Unavailable: Emiliano Martínez, João Pedro, Jamie Gittens, Reece James (injured), Cole Palmer (suspended), Pep Chavarría (doubtful)
The teams' chances
Liverpool to win is offered at 2.50, with fair odds of 2.61 and a fair probability of 38.3%. The draw is quoted at 3.85, with fair odds of 4.02 and a fair probability of 24.9%. Chelsea to win is available at 2.60, with fair odds of 2.72 and a fair probability of 36.8%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to win | 2.50 | 2.61 | 38.3% |
| Draw | 3.85 | 4.02 | 24.9% |
| Chelsea to win | 2.60 | 2.72 | 36.8% |
Total goals betting
Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.55 and Over 2.5 at 1.48, making the over option the clear favourite. On the 3.5-goal line, Under is at 1.70 and Over at 2.15.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.55 | 1.48 |
| 3.5 | 1.70 | 2.15 |
Handicap betting
Both options on the -1.5 handicap carry long odds: Liverpool (-1.5) are at 4.20 and Chelsea (-1.5) at 4.15. On the +1.5 line, Liverpool (+1.5) are available at 1.17 and Chelsea (+1.5) at 1.20. For the -1 handicap, the odds are 3.50 on Liverpool (-1) and 3.60 on Chelsea (-1). On the +1 line, Liverpool (+1) and Chelsea (+1) are both at 1.25. In the zero-handicap market, Liverpool (0) at 1.87 have shorter odds than Chelsea (0) at 1.95.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | -1.5 | 4.15 |
| 1.17 | 1.5 | 1.20 |
| 3.50 | -1 | 3.60 |
| 1.25 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.87 | 0 | 1.95 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.45, while Both teams to score — No, meaning at least one team will fail to score, is at 2.65.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.45 |
| No | 2.65 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
2/5
|
1/4
|
31/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
The bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Liverpool — 1.5 goals; Chelsea — 1.5 goals.
Liverpool team total goals
Liverpool team total goals: Under 0.5 is at 4.20 and Over 0.5 at 1.17; on the 1-goal line, Under is at 3.00 and Over at 1.35. For the 1.5-goal line, the odds are 1.82 on Under and 1.93 on Over; for the 2-goal line, they are 1.40 and 2.80 respectively.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 3.00 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.82 | 1.5 | 1.93 |
| 1.40 | 2 | 2.80 |
Chelsea team total goals
Chelsea team total goals: Under 0.5 is available at 4.10 and Over 0.5 at 1.18; on the 1-goal line, Under is at 2.75 and Over at 1.40. On the 1.5-goal line, Under is at 1.77 and Over at 2.00; on the 2-goal line, they are 1.35 and 2.90 respectively.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.10 | 0.5 | 1.18 |
| 2.75 | 1 | 1.40 |
| 1.77 | 1.5 | 2.00 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 2.90 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Darren England (England)
Matches — 33 (Premier League and English cups, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.2;
Matches with a red card — 3 of 33;
Matches with a penalty — 4 of 33.
