Odds overview
Liverpool are clear favourites: a home win is available at around 1.50, while the draw and a Villarreal win are quoted at 4.70 and 6.00. In the 2.5-goal market, Over 2.5 at 1.50 is much shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.50. Liverpool (-1.5) are offered at 2.20 and Villarreal (+1.5) at 1.63; with a handicap of 0, Liverpool Draw No Bet (0) at 1.17 is considerably shorter than Villarreal Draw No Bet (0) at 4.15.
Why Liverpool are favourites
Bookmakers offer 1.50 for a Liverpool win, 4.70 for a draw and 6.00 for a Villarreal win.
Liverpool have consistently dominated at home in the UEFA Champions League, recording more shots than their opponents in each of their last 10 home matches in the competition.
Villarreal have regularly struggled away from home in the UEFA Champions League, losing 8 of their last 10 away matches.
Liverpool are ahead of their opponents in the table: they sit fifth with 6 points, while Villarreal are 14th with 3 points.
Form and Line-up Liverpool
Liverpool come into the match after beating Brentford (2:1) in the league and LASK (6:3) in European competition. The Merseysiders rank second for total goals in their matches this European season, with an average of 6 goals per game.
Liverpool have controlled matches reliably at Anfield: in their last 10 home UEFA Champions League games, they have never had fewer shots than their opponents, who have committed fewer than 11.5 fouls.
Key numbers:
Liverpool have not lost the corners count in any of their last 10 home UEFA Champions League matches.
Liverpool have had more than 13.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Champions League matches.
Liverpool have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Champions League matches.
Probable Liverpool line-up: Alisson, Ronald Araújo, Jérémy Jacquet, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister, Víctor Muñoz, Florian Wirtz, Bradley Barcola, Lewis Koumas.
Conor Bradley and Hugo Ekitike will miss out for Liverpool. Cody Gakpo's involvement is in doubt, while Alexander Isak and Dominik Szoboszlai have returned to the squad.
Form and Line-up Villarreal
Villarreal beat Napoli (3:1) in the UEFA Champions League and drew with Elche (0:0) in La Liga in their previous matches. Their opponents commit an average of 15 fouls per game — the third-highest figure in the UEFA Champions League.
Villarreal have played cautiously and conservatively away from home in European competition: in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Champions League matches, they have had fewer than 13.5 shots and taken fewer than 4.5 corners.
Key numbers:
Villarreal have not won the corners count in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Champions League matches.
There have been fewer than 4.5 yellow cards in 9 of Villarreal's last 10 away UEFA Champions League matches.
Villarreal's opponents have had more than 12.5 shots in 8 of their last 10 away UEFA Champions League matches.
Probable Villarreal line-up (4-4-2): Péter Gulácsi, Juan Foyth, Logan Costa, Sergi Cardona, Alex Freeman, Santi Comesana, Macia, Ilias Akhomach, Tani Oluwaseyi, Ayoze Pérez, Alberto Moleiro.
The teams' chances
A Liverpool win at 1.50 corresponds to fair odds of 1.57 and a 63.7% probability. The draw is offered at 4.70, with fair odds of 4.92 and a 20.3% probability; the corresponding figures for a Villarreal win are 6.00, 6.28 and 15.9%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
Liverpool to win | 1.50 | 1.57 | 63.7% |
Draw | 4.70 | 4.92 | 20.3% |
Villarreal to win | 6.00 | 6.28 | 15.9% |
Total goals analysis
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 at 1.50 is much shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.50. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 is shorter — 1.65 compared with 2.20 for Over 3.5.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.50 | 1.50 |
3.5 | 1.65 | 2.20 |
Handicap analysis
Liverpool (-1.5) are available at 2.20, while Villarreal (+1.5) are at 1.63. At the 1-goal line, Liverpool (-1) are offered at 1.75 and Villarreal (+1) at 2.10. With a handicap of 0, Liverpool Draw No Bet (0) at 1.17 is much shorter than Villarreal Draw No Bet (0) at 4.15.
Home | Handicap | Away |
2.20 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.63 |
1.75 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 2.10 |
1.17 | 0 | 4.15 |
Both teams to score analysis
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.60, shorter than the 2.25 available for Both teams to score — No, which requires at least one team to fail to score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.60 |
No | 2.25 |
Double chance analysis
The odds suggest that 1X at 1.13 and 12 at 1.19 are considerably more likely than X2 at 2.60.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.13 | 1.19 | 2.60 |
Team total goals analysis
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Liverpool — 2 goals; Villarreal — 1 goal.
Liverpool team total goals
For Liverpool's team total, Under 0.5 is available at 7.50 and Over 0.5 at 1.05; at 1.5 goals, the respective odds are 2.65 and 1.45. At 2 goals, Under is offered at 1.97 and Over at 1.77, while at 2.5 goals, Under at 1.55 is shorter than Over at 2.35.
Under | Team total | Over |
7.50 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
2.65 | 1.5 | 1.45 |
1.97 | 2 | 1.77 |
1.55 | 2.5 | 2.35 |
Villarreal team total goals
For Villarreal's team total, Under 0.5 is available at 2.55 and Over 0.5 at 1.48. At 1 goal, Under is offered at 1.63 against 2.20 for Over; at 1.5 goals, the respective odds are 1.30 and 3.20.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.55 | 0.5 | 1.48 |
1.63 | 1 | 2.20 |
1.30 | 1.5 | 3.20 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
Matches — 6 (international fixtures, 2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.5;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 6;
Matches with a penalty — 3 of 6.
