Odds overview
Liverpool are clear favourites: a home win is available at around 1.50, compared with 4.70 for a draw and 6.00 for a Villarreal win. In the 2.5-goal market, Over 2.5 at 1.50 is much shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.50. Liverpool (-1.5) are offered at 2.20 and Villarreal (+1.5) at 1.63; with a handicap of 0, Liverpool (0) at 1.17 are much shorter than Villarreal (0) at 4.15.
Why Liverpool are favourites
Bookmakers offer 1.50 for a Liverpool win, 4.70 for a draw and 6.00 for a Villarreal win.
Liverpool have consistently dominated at home in the UEFA Champions League, recording more shots than their opponents in all of their last 10 home matches in the competition.
Villarreal have regularly struggled away in the UEFA Champions League, losing 8 of their last 10 away matches.
Liverpool are ahead of their opponents in the standings: they are fifth with 6 points, while Villarreal are 14th with 3 points.
Form and Line-up Liverpool
Liverpool come into the match after beating Brentford 2:1 in the league and LASK 6:3 in European competition. They rank second for total goals in their matches in the current European campaign, with an average of 6 goals per game.
Liverpool have controlled matches well at Anfield: they have not been outshot in their last 10 home UEFA Champions League matches, while their opponents have committed fewer than 11.5 fouls.
Key numbers:
Liverpool have not lost the corner count in their last 10 home UEFA Champions League matches.
Liverpool have taken more than 13.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Champions League matches.
Liverpool have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Champions League matches.
Probable Liverpool line-up: Alisson, Ronald Araújo, Jérémy Jacquet, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister, Víctor Muñoz, Florian Wirtz, Bradley Barcola, Lewis Koumas.
Conor Bradley and Hugo Ekitike will not play for Liverpool. Cody Gakpo is doubtful, while Alexander Isak and Dominik Szoboszlai have returned to the squad.
Form and Line-up Villarreal
Villarreal beat Napoli 3:1 in the UEFA Champions League and drew 0:0 with Elche in La Liga in their previous matches. Their opponents commit an average of 15 fouls per game — the third-highest figure in the UEFA Champions League.
Villarreal have played cautiously and conservatively away in European competition: in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Champions League matches, they have taken fewer than 13.5 shots and won fewer than 4.5 corners.
Key numbers:
Villarreal have not won the corner count in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Champions League matches.
There have been fewer than 4.5 yellow cards in 9 of Villarreal's last 10 away UEFA Champions League matches.
Villarreal's opponents have taken more than 12.5 shots in 8 of their last 10 away UEFA Champions League matches.
Probable Villarreal line-up (4-4-2): Péter Gulácsi, Juan Foyth, Logan Costa, Sergi Cardona, Alex Freeman, Santi Comesana, Macia, Ilias Akhomach, Tani Oluwaseyi, Ayoze Pérez, Alberto Moleiro.
The teams' chances
Liverpool to win at 1.50 corresponds to fair odds of 1.57 and a probability of 63.7%. A draw is offered at 4.70, with fair odds of 4.92 and a probability of 20.3%; the corresponding figures for a Villarreal win are 6.00, 6.28 and 15.9%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
Liverpool to win | 1.50 | 1.57 | 63.7% |
Draw | 4.70 | 4.92 | 20.3% |
Villarreal to win | 6.00 | 6.28 | 15.9% |
Total goals market
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 at 1.50 is much shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.50. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is shorter at 1.65, compared with 2.20 for Over 3.5.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.50 | 1.50 |
3.5 | 1.65 | 2.20 |
Handicap market
Liverpool (-1.5) are available at 2.20, while Villarreal (+1.5) are at 1.63. At the 1-goal handicap line, Liverpool (-1) are offered at 1.75 and Villarreal (+1) at 2.10. With a handicap of 0, Liverpool (0) at 1.17 are much shorter than Villarreal (0) at 4.15.
Home | Handicap | Away |
2.20 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.63 |
1.75 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 2.10 |
1.17 | 0 | 4.15 |
Both teams to score market
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.60, shorter than the 2.25 available for Both teams to score — No, which means at least one side would fail to score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.60 |
No | 2.25 |
Double chance market
Liverpool or draw at 1.13 and either team to win at 1.19 look considerably more likely than Villarreal or draw at 2.60.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.13 | 1.19 | 2.60 |
Team total goals markets
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Liverpool — 2 goals; Villarreal — 1 goal.
Liverpool team total goals
For Liverpool's team total, Under 0.5 goals is available at 7.50 and Over 0.5 at 1.05; at the 1.5-goal line, the respective odds are 2.65 and 1.45. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is offered at 1.97 and Over 2 at 1.77, while at 2.5 goals Under 2.5 at 1.55 is shorter than Over 2.5 at 2.35.
Under | Team total | Over |
7.50 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
2.65 | 1.5 | 1.45 |
1.97 | 2 | 1.77 |
1.55 | 2.5 | 2.35 |
Villarreal team total goals
For Villarreal's team total, Under 0.5 goals is available at 2.55 and Over 0.5 at 1.48. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is offered at 1.63 compared with 2.20 for Over 1; at 1.5 goals, the respective odds are 1.30 and 3.20.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.55 | 0.5 | 1.48 |
1.63 | 1 | 2.20 |
1.30 | 1.5 | 3.20 |
