Odds overview
Red Star Belgrade are slight favourites at 2.45 to win, compared with 2.75 for Lugano and 3.60 for the draw. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 is markedly more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.15. With a zero handicap, Red Star Belgrade Draw No Bet at 1.80 is favoured over Lugano Draw No Bet at 2.00.
Why there is no clear favourite
Bookmakers give the visitors a modest edge: Red Star Belgrade are 2.45 to win, Lugano are available at 2.75 and the draw is 3.60.
• The hosts begin their European campaign amid a heavy workload. Lugano have officially noted that they have entered a packed schedule of league, Swiss Cup and UEFA Conference League matches: this fixture will be one of three in eight days.
• Lugano have averaged 3.4 goals per game across their last five Swiss Super League matches.
• The visitors remain in winning form: Red Star Belgrade have dropped points only once in 10 Serbian SuperLiga rounds, drawing that match — and lead the table comfortably.
Form and Line-up Lugano
In their latest league match, Lugano recorded a convincing 4:0 home win over Luzern, finishing off their opponents in the second half. It was the third consecutive Swiss Super League game in which Mattia Croci-Torti's side scored four goals. That scoring form has put Lugano top of the competition, six points clear of their nearest challengers.
- Fewer than 4.5 goals were scored in 9 of Lugano's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- The two teams combined for more than 22 shots in 9 of Lugano's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Conference League.
- Lugano were caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Conference League home matches.
- Fewer than 4.5 yellow cards were shown in 9 of Lugano's last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): David von Ballmoos, Hannes Delcroix, Lukas Mai, Antonios Papadopoulos, Ezgjan Alioski, Daniel Dos Santos, Anto Grgic, Bekhruz Karimov, Yanis Cimignani, Renato Steffen, Albian Ajeti
Unavailable: Mattia Zanotti (suspended)
Form and Line-up Red Star Belgrade
Red Star Belgrade begin the tournament after a convincing 3:0 away win over Radnički 1923 in the domestic league, with all the goals coming in the second half. That made it four wins in a row. Radnik's recipe for avoiding defeat against the Belgrade side is to keep them from scoring.
- Fewer than 10.5 corners were taken in each of Red Star Belgrade's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Red Star Belgrade's opponents took fewer than 4.5 corners in 8 of the club's last 10 away matches in all competitions.
- Red Star Belgrade's opponents scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of the club's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (3-5-1-1): Matheus, Derrick Luckassen, Miloš Veljković, Franklin Tebo, Loizos Loizou, Rade Krunić, Timi Max Elsnik, Vasilije Kostov, Mirko Ivanić, Muhammed Cham, Marko Arnautovic
Unavailable: Mohammed Abu Fani, Osman Bukari (both suspended)
Teams' chances
After removing the bookmaker's margin, Red Star Belgrade have a 38.9% chance of winning, with average odds of 2.45 and fair odds of 2.57. Lugano are rated at 34.6%: their average odds are 2.75 and fair odds are 2.89. The draw has a 26.5% chance, with average odds of 3.60 and fair odds of 3.78.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano win | 2.75 | 2.89 | 34.6% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.78 | 26.5% |
| Red Star Belgrade win | 2.45 | 2.57 | 38.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals is shorter at 1.70 than Under 2.5 goals at 2.15. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals remains the favourite at 1.47, while Over 3.5 goals is available at 2.60.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.15 | 1.70 |
| 3.5 | 1.47 | 2.60 |
Handicap prediction
At the -1.5 handicap, Red Star Belgrade (-1.5) are slightly shorter at 4.20 than Lugano (-1.5) at 4.60. At +1.5, Red Star Belgrade (+1.5) are shorter at 1.14, compared with 1.17 for Lugano (+1.5). At -1, Red Star Belgrade (-1) are favoured at 3.60 over Lugano (-1) at 4.00; at +1, Red Star Belgrade (+1) are 1.20 against 1.25 for Lugano (+1). With a zero handicap, Red Star Belgrade Draw No Bet is 1.80 and Lugano Draw No Bet is 2.00.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.60 | -1.5 | 4.20 |
| 1.17 | 1.5 | 1.14 |
| 4.00 | -1 | 3.60 |
| 1.25 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 2.00 | 0 | 1.80 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.60 looks markedly more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.30, which would mean at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.30 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
53/100
|
29/100
|
2/5
|
| William Hill |
57/100
|
29/100
|
11/25
|
| 888sport |
57/100
|
29/100
|
11/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Lugano — 1.5 goals; Red Star Belgrade — 1.5 goals.
Lugano team total goals
Lugano team total goals: Over 0.5 goals is much shorter at 1.25 than Under 0.5 goals at 3.50; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal is favoured at 1.57 over Under 1 goal at 2.35. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals is shorter at 1.60, compared with 2.30 for Over 1.5 goals. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals is substantially more likely at 1.25 than Over 2 goals at 3.65.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.50 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.35 | 1 | 1.57 |
| 1.60 | 1.5 | 2.30 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.65 |
Red Star Belgrade team total goals
Red Star Belgrade team total goals: Over 0.5 goals is considerably shorter at 1.22 than Under 0.5 goals at 3.85; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal is favoured at 1.40 over Under 1 goal at 2.75. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals is shorter at 1.73, compared with 2.05 for Over 1.5 goals. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals is markedly more likely at 1.30 than Over 2 goals at 3.30.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.85 | 0.5 | 1.22 |
| 2.75 | 1 | 1.40 |
| 1.73 | 1.5 | 2.05 |
| 1.30 | 2 | 3.30 |
