Odds overview
Lugano are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.20, compared with 6.90 for a draw and 13.00 for an away win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.35 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.95. The handicap market also favours the hosts: Lugano (-1.5) is available at 1.57, compared with 2.30 for Kauno Zalgiris (+1.5).
Why Lugano are favourites
Lugano are the bookmakers' clear favourites: the Swiss club are available at 1.20 to win, a draw is 6.90 and a Kauno Zalgiris win is 13.00.
- Lugano sit second in the UEFA Conference League league phase with a maximum six points and a goal difference of +4.
- Kauno Zalgiris are bottom of the UEFA Conference League overall table in 36th place, with a goal difference of -7.
Form and Line-up Lugano
Lugano beat Basel 2:1 on Sunday. Mattia Croci-Torti's side are unbeaten in six consecutive domestic league matches and have won five in a row. Three of the club's players have scored at least eight goals: Dereck Moncada, Kevin Behrens and Daniel Dos Santos. That depth gives the coaching staff the option of leaving someone on the bench, especially given the calibre of the opposition.
- Lugano had more than 11.5 shots in 8 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Conference League.
- The two teams combined for more than 7.5 shots on target in 9 of Lugano's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Conference League.
Probable Lugano line-up (3-5-2): David von Ballmoos, Antonios Papadopoulos, Lars Lukas Mai, Hannes Delcroix, Mattia Zanotti, Anto Grgic, Uran Bislimi, Yanis Cimignani, Dereck Moncada, Daniel Dos Santos, Kevin Behrens
Unavailable: Renato Steffen (injury)
Form and Line-up Kauno Zalgiris
On 31 October, Kauno Zalgiris beat Hegelmann 4:1 away in matchday 35 of Lithuania's A Lyga. That emphatic victory secured the league title with one match to spare. It is their second successive title. The Kaunas side will play in UEFA Champions League qualifying again next summer, but for now they are conceding plenty of goals in the UEFA Conference League league phase — at least four per match. Perhaps having the pressure of the domestic title race lifted will help them play better in Europe too.
- Kauno Zalgiris scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- Kauno Zalgiris took fewer than 5.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
Probable Kauno Zalgiris line-up (4-1-4-1): Tomas Švedkauskas, Anton Tolordava, Nosa Edokpolor, Joris Moutachy, Rokas Lekiatas, Fabien Ourega, Ivan Fiolić, Gratas Sirgėdas, Leo Ribeiro, Renan Oliveira, Anthony Kalik
The teams' chances
Lugano are available at 1.20 to win, with fair odds of 1.27 and an implied probability of 79.0%. A draw is quoted at 6.90, with fair odds of 7.28 and a probability of 13.7%. Kauno Zalgiris are 13.00 to win, with fair odds of 13.72 and a probability of 7.3%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano to win | 1.20 | 1.27 | 79.0% |
| Draw | 6.90 | 7.28 | 13.7% |
| Kauno Zalgiris to win | 13.00 | 13.72 | 7.3% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.35 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.95. At the 3.5-goal line, the odds are level: Under 3.5 goals and Over 3.5 goals are both available at 1.90.
| Goals line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.95 | 1.35 |
| 3.5 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
Handicap betting
Lugano (-1.5) are quoted at 1.57, while Kauno Zalgiris (+1.5) are 2.30. At the -1 handicap line, Lugano (-1) are available at 1.25, compared with 3.50 for Kauno Zalgiris (+1). With a handicap of 0, Lugano (0) are offered at 1.05, against 7.80 for Kauno Zalgiris (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.57 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 2.30 | |
| 1.25 | -1 | |
| 1 | 3.50 | |
| 1.05 | 0 | 7.80 |
Both teams to score betting
There is little between the options in this market: Both teams to score – Yes is 1.87, while Both teams to score – No is 1.88. The latter means that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.87 |
| No | 1.88 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/25
|
11/100
|
333/100
|
| William Hill |
1/25
|
1/10
|
7/2
|
| 888sport |
1/25
|
1/10
|
7/2
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goals lines for this match: 2.5 goals for Lugano and 0.5 goals for Kauno Zalgiris.
Lugano team goals
For Lugano, Over 2 goals is available at 1.35, compared with 2.95 for Under 2 goals. At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals is quoted at 1.72 and Under 2.5 goals at 2.05. Under 3 goals at 1.65 is favoured over Over 3 goals at 2.15.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.95 | 2 | 1.35 |
| 2.05 | 2.5 | 1.72 |
| 1.65 | 3 | 2.15 |
Kauno Zalgiris team goals
For Kauno Zalgiris, Over 0.5 goals is available at 1.80 and Under 0.5 goals at 1.95. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is 1.28, compared with 3.35 for Over 1 goal. Under 1.5 goals at 1.14 is considerably shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 4.70.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.95 | 0.5 | 1.80 |
| 1.28 | 1 | 3.35 |
| 1.14 | 1.5 | 4.70 |
